This problem is actually a combination of many problems. The first one: Will 5G be commercialized on a large scale? The second one: Will 4G not be eliminated? Third: Why will 3G be eliminated so quickly?
Large-scale commercialization of 5G is inevitable. 5G is a new mobile communication system. Every time a new mobile communication system appears, there will be various voices expressing opposition, but in the end, it will be a slap in the face.
Who can stop the iteration of mobile communication system? Experts can't do it, and neither can individual users who think that the new mobile communication system is unnecessary. Interestingly, in the next iteration of the mobile communication system, there will be new groups to maintain this old mobile communication system that was originally considered "unnecessary".
When 4G came, didn't many people think 4G was unnecessary? Does it smell good now?
Behind the commercialization of 5G is not only the reform of the mobile communication system, but also the national will. 5G is the foundation of Made in China 2025, and behind it is the embodiment of the national will. Anything that hinders the 5G standard will be defeated by a strong national will.
The focus of 5G is not to make your individual users surf the Internet faster, but to support industrial applications, which is the biggest difference from previous mobile communication systems.
4G will not be eliminated, and 4G will continue to exist. In contrast, 4G is also a very mature mobile communication system. At present, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is still asking the three major operators to further expand the coverage of 4G base stations, requiring rural administrative villages to cover 98%.
This determines that 4G will not be easily eliminated. You know, among the three major operators, only China Mobile has invested more than 500 billion RMB, and the total investment of 4G of the three major operators exceeds 1 trillion. Such a large investment only took a few short years, and it is far from being eliminated.
4G will be the basic network of Internet of Things, the basic network of voice, the supplementary network of 5G uplink coverage, the data distribution network of personal application and the core of 2/3/4G networking in the future, and will not be easily eliminated.
In the 5G era, it is inevitable that 2/3G will be eliminated, and the 2/3G system has now begun to fall behind.
3G was eliminated quickly, and it can be said that Qualcomm played a great role in it, and there were other complicated problems. The 3G era is the era of Qualcomm. Qualcomm mastered the core patent of CDMA and charged huge patent fees for the whole communication industry, which also led to the high price of the standard in that year.
Moreover, the auction price of 3G spectrum in developed countries such as Europe and America is too expensive, which also makes operators lack the funds for construction. In addition, the economic crisis in the 3G era has also aggravated this point.
3G began to build networks slowly in 2000, and it was not until the appearance of Apple mobile phone and the arrival of smart phone era that large-scale networking development began.
In China, there is the choice of 3G standard. The existence of independent standard of TD-SCDMA in China in 3G era also delayed the issuance of 3G licenses in China.
It can be said that the global 3G era is relatively short, and 4G is coming.
In a word, the commercial application of 5G in China will be large-scale, but the popularization time may be longer. 4G will not be eliminated soon, and will continue to exist with 5G.
Personally, I think that the official large-scale commercialization of 5G is absolutely explosive. Although the infrastructure is still under construction, it will definitely break out in a year or two.
5G will never be the next 3G. Speaking of 3 G, it is necessary to analyze:
The situation of 5G is different from that of 3G in three aspects.
1 and the 5G era, the world unified standards for the first time, concentrated the strength of the industrial chain, and made a hole!
In the 3G era, the power is scattered and the fight is as close as a bee.
Big PK: WCDMA standard of 3GPP and CDMA2000 organized by 3GP2 are the big PK of the century.
China developed TD-SCDMA, and North America later proposed WIMAX (3.5G).
In the 4G era, China issued a TDD-LTE license, with greater voice, and the global mainstream was FDD-LTE license. Both of these standards are formulated by 3GPP, and chip factories support both technologies when defining specifications.
In the 5G era, global standards were truly unified for the first time. The United States, Europe, Asia and the Pacific reached a compromise on their interests. The control channel is Polar proposed by Huawei, and the data channel is LDPC proposed by Qualcomm.
In the future 5G era, the world will work together to make a hole!
2.3G has changed the way of human communication, and the natural flow of ordinary people has increased, fattening up 4G and supporting 5G.
The capacity of 4G in hot spots is not enough immediately, and 5G is just on top. This is a far cry from the empty traffic of 3G in those days. China issued 3G license in early 2009 and 4G license at the end of 20 13 four years later!
Many people question: 3G is finally mature, why go to 4G again? Isn't it a waste of investment? We also don't see any business that must use 4G.
At that time, China Mobile was actively building 4G, while China Unicom and Telecom were relatively slow. As a result, many users have jumped ship.
The rapid growth of traffic demand far exceeds even the most radical assumptions of all of us.
East Asia is densely populated, and people love smartphones far more than westerners, starting with one-year-old baby BB.
In just four or five years, China has brazenly built 4 million 4G base stations, 7 million in the world (200,000 in the United States). In other words, China has surpassed the sum of other countries in the world.
The 5G base station can be built at the same site as the 4G base station, using infrastructure such as computer room, iron tower and transmission. If the 4G base stations are already very dense, the number of new sites in the 5G network is very limited.
After entering 5G, 2C's consumption field has several development trends: large-screen HD (fine), two-way interactive virtual reality (face to face with teachers) and augmented reality (AR).
The outstanding ability of 3.5G further extends to the connection between people and things, and provides load for new services such as intelligent Internet of Things (AIoT). High probability is a revolution that changes the world!
5G is likely to become the national strategy of many countries, not only to talk about commercial interests, but also to talk about social benefits.
Based on the above analysis, I personally think that 5G is only the beginning, far from the end. In the future life scene, 5G will also play a major role. 5G lies not only in the networking between people, but also in the networking between people and things and things. The era of Internet of Everything is about to begin. The rapid development of technologies such as autonomous driving and virtual reality will surely drive the rapid development of the whole industry, and 5G is expected.
5g cannot be popularized on a large scale. Unless the technology is suddenly turned upside down overnight, the energy consumption is low and the coverage is perfect, otherwise the result of 5g will be unfinished, the biggest unfinished project in 2 1 century, and the latest wifi6 can be called the perfect killer of 5 G. Although it is not as good as 5g in many aspects, the cost is low, which is the most important thing. If the monthly order of 5 G exceeds 200, the people will stay away from drugs, and finally the operators will surrender. Huawei is most afraid of wifi here. From this passage of Lao Ren, we can see the clue!
5G has been commercialized for more than a year and is mainly used in some industrial scenes. It doesn't play much role in our real life, and most of 4G is enough. The industrial internet mainly relies on 5 G to achieve zero delay, just like unmanned driving and container freight terminals will rely on 5 G. We usually brush small videos on web pages, and 4G is completely enough. Personally, I think 4G will always coexist with 5 G, even if there is a 2.3.4g network now, it will continue to exist for a long time. Different scenarios will lead to different applications, what's more, the application of 5G has not yet been made, which involves many interests, mainly depending on the support and promotion of the state. Only in this way can we get healthy development and avoid a vicious circle. Now the country is also vigorously developing in the direction of high-speed internet, and finally realize interconnection. The Internet of Everything is inseparable from the configuration of high-speed networks. In fact, in the final analysis, it is still a question of tariffs. As long as the tariffs and traffic costs come down, the number of users will definitely increase explosively, which is followed by the popularity of 5G mobile phones!
After the large-scale commercialization of 5G, 4G will not be eliminated by the market, and 4G and 5G will coexist for a long time.
Every communication era has the characteristics of the network in that era, and when mobile communication changes rapidly with the progress of society and the change of technology, and every user can understand it, then there will be * * * similarities, such as better network transformation, 4G network, 2 and 3G have not been replaced, and today's 5G is the same!
Although the 5G network only allows mobile phones supporting 5G, it does not mean that 4G will be replaced by it. Although it is 5G, it still supports 4G and 3G. In other words, operators can't turn off 4G, because from the huge construction cost, the cost of base station construction can't be reduced. This can only be a loss-making business!
Looking back, it was the same when the 4G network first came out. The signal is unstable everywhere. We still use the 3G network, and the traffic in 5 yuan is 30 meters a month, which can't be used up by the end of the month. Then the emergence of 4G also ridiculed that if the internet was not closed one night, the house would go halfway the next day, so many things were not as beautiful as we thought.
So now 5G is the same. Although the three major operators started the commercialization of 5G in the National Convention Center, it does not mean that 5G has been widely covered in our lives now, so our 4G has been used for at least four or five years. No matter how much, it is backward compatible and can be compatible with its own network standards. So we don't have to worry about these problems at all. The domestic 5G mobile phone is driven by ZTE 10 Pro 5G version and Huawei mate20 x(5G). Except for Apple, which won't have a 5G mobile phone this year, other domestic manufacturers and Samsung are also launching a variety of 5G mobile phones. Obviously, the 5G era will start to break out at the end of the year, so many consumers will ask how long 4G can live. How long can a 4G mobile phone last? Will it be as flat as 3G soon? Let's see what is going on.
Let's take a look at the main features of 5G. The above are some main features of 5G network over 4G network, and many performance indicators are beyond 4G network's reach. The next 20 years will be the era of the Internet of Things and artificial intelligence, which is a big market of more than several trillion dollars.
The future Internet of Things and artificial intelligence era must be based on 5G. To sum up, the future world really needs 5 g. Then, with the advent of the 5G era, will 4G be replaced and will it soon withdraw from history? The answer is no, we have seen some industrial demands that need 5G listed above, and the demand for networks in our work and life is far more than that.
Look at the services that 4G can provide in the future.
However, the SA method has a large investment and a long period. In the short term, operators will focus on NSA, and only by quickly covering important areas will SA networks be added.
However, the coverage of 5G base stations is smaller than that of the original 4G base stations, so NSA networking cannot achieve full coverage, and the density must be increased. After the basic coverage is realized, some NSA will be gradually replaced by SA, which will take a long time. In another part of NSA networking area, if there is no special 5G demand, 4G+NSA 5G can always be used. Before replacing NSA with SA networking, 4G networking is necessary.
The construction cycle of 5G networks generally takes about 3-5 years, and full coverage is difficult and unnecessary, especially in remote areas and rural areas, and 4G networks can continue to be used. And it is limited to the weakness of 5G coverage. In the future, 5G will cover the main core areas, and there are probably many ways for 4G to assist other areas.
Conclusion and suggestion: In at least five years, the 4G network and services will definitely have no problems and can be used normally. Five years later, many places are still inseparable from 4G networks, but in some areas, especially cities and core areas, 5G coverage is already very good, and 4G will be dispensable. However, referring to the existing 2G, 3G, 4G and 5G***, there is still a high probability that 4G networks will exist in the next 5- 10 years.
So the conclusion is clear. You can buy a 4G mobile phone with confidence in 3-5 years, and there will definitely be network service, which will definitely make your mobile phone useless. Of course, with the rapid popularization of 5G mobile phones, it is estimated that there will be few personal 4G mobile phones in 2-3 years.
5G has been commercialized on a large scale. Do you think 4G will be a flash in the pan? Let's find out.
You know, at present, 5G has many advantages, such as fast network speed and low delay, which will play an absolute role in the future Internet of Things technology.
So once 5G is fully popularized, the 4G as we know it will be greatly affected. However, how long before the cancellation of 4G? This problem is worth discussing. In fact, it is impossible to cancel 4G in the near future, and even 4G and 5G networks will coexist for a long time, which may last for a long time.
We also know that according to experts' calculations, the current 5G network construction needs about 6 million base stations, and the cost of base stations ranges from 1.2 trillion yuan to 1.5 trillion yuan. The national 5G network coverage may take 6-7 years from 2065,438+09.
In this way, it will take quite a long time for you to fully cover China with 5G. This time is very long, and the 4G network can still be used at this time. At the beginning, China implemented the mode of 4G and 5G joint networking, and NSA networking. This networking method can really make 5G quickly lay lines, but it will not make 4G quickly quit.
In the future, 4G can indeed be used backwards by 5G. However, with the innovation of technology and the improvement of user network requirements, we can confirm that 5G will only become more and more popular. Therefore, although 4G will exist for a long time, it will never disappear immediately, and it will only be a flash in the pan.
The answer to this question must first be answered from 4G and 5G application scenarios:
The core of 1 and 4G is interpersonal communication, and interpersonal communication is the core of mobile communication.
The core of 2.5G communication is the Internet of Everything.
3.5G is the fifth generation mobile communication technology developed on the basis of 4G.
When you understand the above three questions, the answer is ready.
The previous 1, 3G and 4G basically solved the basic problem of mobile communication, that is, being able to roam on the move, but only solved the basic communication problem between individuals.
The 2.4G era is a step closer. It not only solves the telephone conversation between individuals, but also joins the Internet solution. After Steve Jobs invented the Apple mobile phone, the mobile phone began to enter the real 4G era and the mobile Internet era. Apple's mobile phone really connects mobile communication with the Internet, thus, the world opens the era of mobile Internet, but it only solves the connection problem between mobile communication and the Internet.
3. It is precisely because of the development of mobile Internet technology that the world has entered the era of mobile Internet. The development of mobile internet has made some network technology companies develop like a duck to water, creating network giants such as facbook, twiteer, Alibaba and Tencent. But only because of the development of Internet technology, some problems have been solved, such as telemedicine, autonomous driving, vr technology and so on. Because of the time delay, it is not satisfactory in remote control fields such as automatic driving. All of the above have basically solved the problems between people and between people and the Internet. As for the Internet of Everything, it is basically a dream.
So, what era is the 5G era? You are welcome to say that 5G has entered the era of Internet of Everything. People, people and machines, machines and everything have entered an unprecedented era. The world is changing too fast, maybe 5G is too advanced, which makes people feel at a loss or even at a loss.
Let's talk about the difference between 4G and 5G here and now.
1. Some people say that 5G is faster and smarter. The transmission rate of 5G equipment is faster, reaching 10GBPS, which is several hundred times that of 4G. It only takes 2 seconds to download a movie. Then, after the large-scale popularization of 5G, 4G can still be used because of backward compatibility. If it is really popular on a large scale, it is estimated that everyone will use 5G in five years, but people are like this. With the improvement of living standards, the trend of comparison is growing day by day. Why does it take 10 minutes to get a mobile phone that can download movies in 2 seconds? And 4G mobile phones can't receive 5G models. I think, at that time, no one could use a 4G mobile phone except my older aunt and grandfather.
2. The delay rate is lower. The transmission rate delay of 5G equipment is 1 ms, and that of 4G equipment is 50 ms.
The data throughput of 3.5G is several hundred times that of 4G.
The application brought by 4.5G is firstly the Internet of Things, which provides a higher possibility for the Internet of Everything. Smart cities and smart homes are possible. It brings the internet of everything, and all people, all devices and all networks in the world can interact intelligently. The reason why 5G is smarter is precisely because 5G has given life to all things, and everything in the world has become more alive.
5, autonomous driving, low latency of 5G, making autonomous driving really possible. The biggest obstacle to autonomous driving now is the delay of the network, which makes it impossible to determine the position of the car in time. If there is no delay, everything is possible.
6. With the low latency of 5G and the development of robotics, telemedicine, tele-surgery and VR technology have broad development space.
7. The most important thing is that the 4G mobile phone can't receive the 5G signal. There is no doubt that 5G-driven devices and economies will use faster 5G networks.
Then, 5G has been the mainstream for a long time. Does it mean that after the large-scale popularization of 5G, 4G will be completely extinct? The answer is no, the compatibility of 5G must be compatible with 4G. At present, it will take at least five years, and the 4G network may gradually withdraw from the historical stage. Therefore, during this period, when the economic conditions are not good, we will continue to use 4G mobile phones. Over time, fewer and fewer people will use 4G mobile phones.
Thank you for reading.
The meaning of the topic can actually be divided into two questions. How long will it take for large-scale commercialization of 5G? Will 4G disappear soon?
How long will it take for large-scale commercialization of 5G? The construction of 5G network, from the scale, complexity and investment amount of the whole project, far exceeds the popularity of 4G network, so to answer this question, let's take a brief look at the pace of large-scale commercialization of 4G.
4G was popularized locally from 20 10, commercially from 20 13, and widely from 20 15. However, with the real maturity of the mobile phone industry chain, 4G has been widely used by consumers and should be around 20 16.
So overall, it should be about five years.
Will 4G disappear soon? The answer to this question is closely related to the answer to the last question, but there is also a very important reason, that is, when will the killer application of 5G appear?
The core application scenario of 5G is in business. For consumers, so far, we have not seen the devastating application of 4G network. Therefore, if this problem cannot be solved, 4G networks should be able to coexist for a long time. After all, 4G network service is cheaper.
To sum up, there should be a long time for the 5G network. At least in 3~5 years, 4G will coexist with 5G for a long time.
Yang Jie, Chairman of China Mobile: 5g will coexist with 4g for a long time.