Future urbanization and urban development trends in China
I. The New Pattern of China's Regional Economic Development in the Next 30 Years
The next two decades will be the period of the most dramatic changes in China's regional economy. With the rapid advancement of urbanization and the implementation of the strategy of coordinated regional development, the regional economic pattern will also undergo relatively obvious changes.
(I) The economic gap between the eastern and western regions will continue to widen, while the gap in per capita income is expected to narrow
With further opening up to the outside world, the coastal belt will continue to be a hotspot for investment.
First of all, in terms of the supply of important resources such as petroleum, iron ore, grain and cotton, domestic reserves are insufficient; most of the development in the central and western regions started from resource development, which is generally characterized by large investment, long cycle and slow payback of investment, and the high cost of survey, development and production. Overseas imports still have greater competitiveness in the domestic market, China's industrial structure will favor the manufacturing industry rather than the extractive industry, although the eastern part of the industrial transfer to the central and western regions continues to accelerate, but in the context of economic globalization, the center of gravity of the industrial layout is still on the coast.
Secondly, the coastal region is highly industrial intensive, and enterprises are conducive to the formation of a reasonable division of labor to reduce production costs.
Once again, the coastal areas have a higher level of urbanization and relatively lower infrastructure construction costs. The supporting infrastructure construction investment required for the construction of the west is often several times higher than that of the coastal cities, which naturally affects the economic effect of investment in the west. In addition, coastal areas have high population density, small land area and low social management costs. The total level of culture, education, science and technology, and health in the western region is significantly lower than that of the eastern coastal region, with a low level of socio-economic management and high management costs.
Another important trend related to this is that with the implementation of the western development strategy and the movement of population to the coastal areas, the per capita income level in the western region will increase to a greater extent, and the gap between the per capita income with the eastern region is expected to narrow. In order to improve the backwardness of infrastructure in the western region, the state will arrange a certain amount of funds for infrastructure construction in the western region every year, in addition to financial transfers and funds for improving the ecological environment, returning farmland to forests and grasslands, and protecting natural forests will continue to increase.
The inclination of government investment is conducive to raising the income of people in the western region. The strengthening of east-west cooperation, the expansion of urban scale, the development of tertiary industry and the vitality of enterprises will not only increase employment but also raise wages. With the improvement of basic education in the western region, the improvement of the quality of the population and the establishment of the national labor market, the labor force and population in the western region will move to the eastern region along with the increase of the demand for labor in the eastern region, and the population in the western region may have a tendency to decrease. The "numerator" increases and the "denominator" decreases, the per capita income will increase, and accordingly the "numerator" and "denominator" of the eastern region will increase in the same proportion, so the "numerator" and "denominator" of the eastern region will increase in the same proportion. "The same proportion increase, so the gap between the two is expected to narrow.
(2) Three urban agglomerations continue to dominate China's economic development
In the 1990s, China's economy was notably characterized by three major urban agglomerations, namely, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, which were not only developing at a fast pace, but also accounting for an increasingly high proportion of the country's economic scale, and becoming the leading lights and engines of China's economic development.
The Yangtze River Delta, driven by the radiation of Shanghai, has seen rapid growth in foreign investment and has become China's largest export processing base. In the next 30 years, the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta will continue to expand, and all of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and part of Anhui will enter the Yangtze River Delta city cluster.
The Pearl River Delta region will realize regional economic integration with Hong Kong and Macao, with greater advantages and stronger radiation.
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster in the characteristics and advantages of the major cities is very obvious, complementary role, Beijing has political, cultural and high-tech advantages, Tianjin has the advantages of the port and manufacturing industry, Shijiazhuang has the advantages of the commercial and trade industry, once the breakthrough of the administrative barriers, the potential for development will be quickly released.
It is certain that the three major city clusters will continue to dominate China's economic development in the next 30 years, and it will be difficult for any other region to match them.
(3) A large number of medium-sized cities will grow into big cities, and new urban agglomerations will continue to emerge
With the implementation of the urbanization strategy and the change of the urban construction policy, many factors that inhibit the development of big cities will cease to exist, and the development of big cities will speed up greatly. Medium-sized cities have the most potential for development and are mostly the centers of the regional economy. With the change in the household registration system and the advancement of marketization, many medium-sized cities will rapidly grow into large cities. By 2030, the number of cities with more than 1 million people in China will exceed 100, the number of cities with more than 500,000 people will exceed 200, and the vast majority of regional-level cities will be among the ranks of large cities.
Multiple economic centers will be formed within the provincial boundaries, and cities of varying sizes will mostly be the economic and social development centers of different scopes accordingly, which will not only gather advanced manufacturing industries in the region, but also be the information and service centers in the region, and play the roles of regulating and radiating the economic activities in the region. Under the conditions of market economy, the economic center of each province may deviate from the administrative center, for example, the new provincial economic center has been formed or the first signs of Qingdao, Dalian, Xiamen, Shenzhen, Baotou and so on. In addition, with the economic development of the provinces, especially in the central and western regions of the provinces and regions, will gradually change the pattern of a single economic center in the province, and gradually develop a number of new economic growth poles.
In addition to the three major city clusters, new city clusters will continue to emerge. Now has shown the beginning of the Shandong Peninsula city cluster, Liaozhongnan city cluster, the Central Plains city cluster, city cluster in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, city cluster on the west bank of the Taiwan Strait, Chengdu-Chongqing city cluster and Guanzhong city cluster, Jianghuai area, central Hunan, central Jilin, the Gulf of Tonkin, Tianshan North Slope and so on, are hopeful of becoming a new city cluster. Large and small city clusters, industrial zones and economic circles will promote regional cooperation and regional economic integration process and the "vassal economy" impact.
(D) the Beijing-Guangzhou line in the middle and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is expected to rise
This area includes Hubei, Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi and Anhui along the rivers and lakes, formerly known as the Central Plains of the five provinces, is China's best transportation conditions, richer in resources, more economically developed areas. Since the reform and opening up, the economic development, however, has been slow. In recent years, economic development has begun to accelerate and the advantages have reappeared. Economic zones with certain influence have been formed, such as the triangle of Wuhan, Xiangfan and Yichang, the economic zone of Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, the economic zone of Nanchang, Jiujiang and Jingdezhen, and the economic belt along the river in Anhui. The large and medium-sized cities along the Beijing-Guangzhou Railway are developing rapidly, and the three major cities of Wuhan, Changsha and Zhengzhou are echoing each other. Industries such as iron and steel, automobile, food, and machinery manufacturing have become quite competitive. This area is expected to be built into a manufacturing center in China's inland areas that focuses on consumer, intermediate and investment goods to meet domestic demand.
(E) China's economic center of gravity has a tendency to move north
China's current center of gravity for regional economic development is in the southeastern coastal region, which is determined by the conditions of different regions in various aspects. Since the reform and opening up, the core area of China's economic growth has been formed in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta. The rapid economic development of the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta has formed the main driving force behind two decades of China's economic growth.
From the present point of view, there are some objective limitations to the shift of the center of gravity of China's economic development pattern to the west. No matter from the historical development, or from the location conditions to analyze, the northern coastal area has enough reasons to become the core area of potential economic growth. With the deepening of reform and opening up and the improvement of water resources conditions, the factors restricting the development of the northern coastal area will gradually dissolve, and the trend of shifting the center of gravity of the economy to the north is likely to become a reality, and the heavy chemical industry in the Bohai Rim, in a broader sense, will become an important support for China's economy.
(VI) International cooperation continues to accelerate, and subregional economic cooperation is being strengthened
Since 1978, China has established opening up to the outside world as a basic national policy, and in the process of deepening opening up to the outside world, it has adapted to the development trend of regionalization and conglomeration of the world economy, and has continuously strengthened international economic and technological cooperation and trade exchanges with countries around the world. The spatial pattern of opening up to the outside world has gradually expanded from the coast in the 1980s to the rivers, borders and vast inland cities in the 1990s, and has basically formed an all-round opening up to the outside world and a multi-level participation in the international economic cycle of economic development pattern.
The financial crisis in the United States will not change the trend of economic globalization. In order to resolve the impact of the world financial crisis, the trend of international regional economic integration will continue to accelerate, China and neighboring countries will be strengthened economic and technological cooperation, and gradually formed a number of closer economic ties between the subregional economic cooperation zone. Northeast Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Area, including China's East, North and Northeast China and Japan, South Korea, North Korea, eastern Russia, Mongolia; Southeast Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Area, including China's South China, Southwest China and Southeast Asian countries; Central Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Area, including China's Northwest China and Central Asian countries; South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Area, including China's Southwest and Northwest China and Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and other countries; South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation Area, including China's Southwest and Northwest China and South Asia. Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Nepal and other countries. The formation and development of China's neighboring sub-regional economic cooperation zones will certainly be conducive to China's gradual establishment of a multi-level participation in the international economic cycle pattern, accelerating China's opening-up process.
Two, China's urbanization and urban development trend in the next 30 years
The level of urbanization and the speed of development ultimately depend on the socio-economic development. According to the regularity of international urbanization, when the level of urbanization exceeds 30%, the process of urbanization will enter a period of accelerated development. Therefore, in the 21st century, the process of China's urbanization
will be accelerated and gradually narrow the gap between China and the developed countries, and the development of the city will also be diversified.
(1) China will enter a period of accelerated urbanization
After ten years of exploration and practice, China has successfully walked out of a road of urbanization with Chinese characteristics, and the national economy has been developing sustainably, rapidly and healthily, therefore, it has already possessed the foundation and conditions for accelerated development of urbanization.
1. The steady development of the national economy will strongly promote the process of urbanization
The report of the 17th National Congress of the People's Republic of China (PRC) clearly put forward the grand goal of China's national economic development in 2020. China's national economy has entered a stage of steady development, which undoubtedly lays a solid foundation for the acceleration of urbanization.
2. The deepening of the reform provides a huge space for the accelerated development of urbanization
With the deepening of the reform, the long-standing dual structure of urban-rural segregation will be changed, the existing household registration system will be fundamentally reformed, important factors affecting the process of urbanization will be basically eliminated, and the urbanization potential that has been suppressed to a certain extent in the past will be released. The relationship between urbanization and industrialization, urbanization and economic growth will become more and more coordinated, and the expansion of the city in terms of outreach will be accompanied by a focus on inner development and growth as the main trend of urban development, especially in most medium-sized and small cities, where urbanization will be given a clear impetus by the continuous improvement of infrastructure and the enhancement and improvement of economic strength and quality. Large cities and mega-cities will also see faster population growth due to the loosening of the household registration system and the rapid expansion of the socio-economic scale. In addition, the radiation effect of large cities will play a great role in promoting the formation and development of small and medium-sized cities.
3. The law of urbanization development indicates that China will enter the stage of rapid urbanization
Analysis based on the urbanization path taken by developed countries, the development of urbanization from the beginning can be roughly divided into three stages: early, medium and mature; urbanization level of 10% to less than 30% for the early stage, urbanization level of 30% to 70% for the medium stage, and urbanization level of more than 70% for the medium stage, and urbanization level of more than 70% for the medium stage. A level of urbanization of 70 per cent or more is the mature stage. The time spent in the middle stage of urbanization is generally less than that spent in the early stage, for example, in the United Kingdom, the time spent in the middle stage of urbanization is less than half of that spent in the early stage, that is to say, the middle stage of urbanization will be a period of accelerated development. The level of urbanization in China has already exceeded 40%, and it can be expected that the level of urbanization in China will be further accelerated.
(2) Forecast of China's urbanization level
The level of urbanization is determined by the degree of economic and social development and the various policies for urbanization of the population, but urbanization itself also has a huge inertia effect. According to China's economic and social development and the development trend of urbanization, many experts have made predictions. According to the prediction of the experts concerned, entering the 21st century, China's urbanization level can grow by 1 percentage point per year, which is higher than the average rate of development from 1949 to 1997, and also higher than the average rate of development from 1979 to 1999.
By 2030, China's urbanization level will exceed 70 percent, the country's total population will reach 1.5 billion, and the total population of municipalities will exceed 1 billion.
Urbanization is not only the result of social division of labor and economic development, but also the process of cultural diffusion and integration of alternating development, therefore, there are many factors affecting urbanization, not only economic factors, but also natural, historical, and humanistic factors, and it is almost impossible to take all factors into consideration and make a convincing and very accurate prediction. According to the historical trend of the development of things, the comprehensive consideration of the important factors affecting the development of things, to make a relative general prediction, is of some significance.
(3) The basic trend of China's urban development
With the acceleration of the process of urbanization, there will be some new changes in the mode of development and functional roles of cities, which is due to the fact that the general trend of economic globalization and the worldwide strategy of sustainable economic and social development will have a great impact on the development of cities. Therefore, Chinese cities in the future will develop in the direction of internationalization, contiguity, ecology and modernization.
1. Internationalization
With the development of economy and the deepening of reform and opening up, Chinese cities are interacting with the world more and more frequently, and the international factors of urban development are increasing year by year, and some of China's megacities will be developed into international metropolises.
Internationalized metropolis is the product of the world economic development, as early as in the early 19th century, London has become an international city, in the past 30 years, due to the further development of productivity and international division of labor, the construction of international cities has become the trend of the development of the world's major cities. Some developing countries, including China, have also rapidly joined the international economic cycle; some large multinational corporations have set up branches in various countries; the international financial business continues to expand, promoting the internationalization of the financial system in various countries; modern transportation and communication to make the spatial concept has greatly changed, for the development of the international
city provides a material guarantee.
Some cities in China already have the basic conditions for building internationalized metropolises. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen Chongqing, Wuhan, Shenyang, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Chengdu, Qingdao, and Dalian will take the lead in becoming internationalized metropolises, and more cities will become internationalized cities in 2030.
2. Contiguousization
City contiguousization refers to the process of rapid expansion of the size of the central city and rapid increase in the number of cities in a region, thus forming a dense urban area. Over the past 40 years, the development of urban belts and city clusters has expanded from developed countries in North America and Western Europe to some developing countries, and has become a ****same trend in the development of urban agglomerations in countries all over the world, including China. China's major urban agglomerations - the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Liao-Zhongnan region, etc. have formed the basic framework of urban contiguousization, and their internally developed transportation and communication networks, close economic ties between cities, superior geographic location, concentrated intellectual resources, and a certain scale of high and new technology industries, make these areas will rapidly realize contiguousization.
3. Ecological
The development of the city itself has given birth to the modern civilization of the city, promoted the development of economic, cultural and scientific and technological development, and changed people's traditional concepts of life; at the same time, it also caused a series of environmental problems, such as air pollution, noise pollution, traffic congestion, and shortage of land and water, etc. In the mid-to-late twentieth century, the developed countries began to pay attention to the environmental problems of the city, and curb the environmental degradation that is increasing with the expansion of the city scale. In the mid-to-late 20th century, developed countries began to pay attention to urban environmental problems and curbed the momentum of environmental deterioration with the expansion of city scale. China is in a period of rapid urbanization, is bound to learn from the lessons of the developed countries, to prevent the emergence of "big city disease", to protect the city's ecological environment, improve the city's natural and environmental carrying capacity, to truly achieve the goal of sustainable development, urban ecology will be the inevitable trend of the development of large and medium-sized cities in the future.
Urban ecologization means that with the expansion of the city scale and the growth of the number of cities, not only does not deteriorate the ecological environment, but also make the ecological environment more suitable for people's work and life. Increase urban green space, the development of urban artificial forests, improve green coverage will be the first measure to achieve urban ecologization; secondly, between cities and cities or between multiple cities in the central hinterland, the establishment of ecological corridors and ecological protection zones; thirdly, to reduce the source of pollution, the construction of low-polluting public **** transportation facilities, and actively promote the harmless treatment of garbage; fourthly, the centralized processing of industrial wastewater waste gas and waste residue, etc., will become the core content of the city's sustainable development strategy.
4. Modernization
Urbanization itself means modernization. Industrial modernization, infrastructure modernization and people's life modernization are the basic contents of urban modernization. The rapidly developing tertiary industry will quickly replace the secondary industry as the leading industry in cities. Scientific and technological progress will be the driving force and source for cities in developing countries to surpass the economic and technological gap and catch up with the cities in developed countries. Relying on scientific and technological progress to transform the cities, adjust and optimize the industrial structure, develop hi-tech and capital-intensive industries, and push forward the transformation and upgrading of the cities is the key for cities in China to enhance their international competitiveness and realize the goal of modernization. The progress of science and technology and the development of information industry will change the traditional industrial model and management mode, and make the city economy shift from relying on natural resources and manufacturing industry to relying on high and new technology, information resources and service industry.
The high-efficiency urban infrastructure based on transportation, communication and energy supply is the material foundation of urban development and modernization. Only through the modernization of urban infrastructure can urban modernization be realized. Future urban planning and construction will accelerate the integration of urban infrastructure networks, coordinate the connection of municipal and inter-municipal infrastructures, form a future integrated urban and rural public **** passenger transportation system and public **** telecommunications network, greatly enhance the city's radiation and attraction capacity, and build airports and seaports adapted to internationalization, as well as an efficient, convenient and safe regional transportation network to go along with them.
The modernization of people's lives is the essence of urban modernization. Through the construction of eco-cities, people will live in comfortable environments, and the cities will be enriched with all kinds of cultural, sports and medical facilities to satisfy the growing spiritual and cultural needs of urban and rural residents, and to stimulate people's self-confidence and creativity continuously. (CFFS)