Domestic demand does not only refer to medical demand, but also includes public **** health and other aspects of demand, all types of domestic demand release the key to the government's sustained investment,
that the government's investment in public **** health, health care system, the construction of primary health care institutions will inevitably lead to an increase in demand is the most important driving force for the pharmaceutical industry to continue to maintain the rapid growth of the pharmaceutical industry in 2010.
1, at least before 2012 (perhaps extending to 2020) government investment will continue to increase
The government put forward 850 billion input program for the initial decomposition. It is believed that the government will increase its investment as promised until at least 2012 and will continue to do so in the future, or perhaps until 2020.
Analysis shows that the government has invested the most in health care, the proportion of personal payments is expected to decline rapidly in the future to about 40% in 2010, the total cost of health care accounted for the proportion of GDP will be raised from 4.52% in 2007 to more than 5% in 2010. 2, the pulling force of the construction of the health care system has not disappeared, and will continue to promote the expansion of the domestic drug market
In 2010, in the demographic biology (population size, structure and disease spectrum) and technological progress of the two factors are relatively stable, driven by the construction of the health insurance system to enhance the ability to pay is still the most critical factor in the expansion of the drug market.
(1)The amount of health insurance financing will continue to increase, constituting the most solid foundation for the improvement of payment capacity
Different from the view that the pulling effect of health insurance has ended, that the universal health insurance will only be able to initially complete the full coverage of the network in 2010, while the improvement of the level of medical insurance is still ongoing, 2010, 2012 is an important point, the construction of the health insurance system is still the most important factor for the expansion and growth of the industry. The construction of the health insurance system is still the most important driving force for the expansion and growth of the industry.
Since the coverage rate of the New Rural Cooperative has reached more than 90%, the focus of the improvement of the medical insurance system in 2010 is to: (1) expand the coverage of urban residents' medical insurance and urban workers' medical insurance, the latter's difficulty lies in the medical insurance for rural migrant workers and the employees of bankruptcy and closure of the enterprise, but at present, the employees of the bankruptcy and closure of the enterprise's health care problem is gradually being solved; (2) gradually improve the level of protection, 2010 The financing standard of the New Rural Cooperative was raised to 150 yuan per person per year, and 120 yuan of that amount was paid by the state and local finances.
Predicted the coverage of the three major health insurance systems, the number of participants, financing standards, and then projected the change in total annual financing and the amount of new premiums, that this is the most powerful guarantee of the sustained release of the domestic demand for health care before 2010. Improvement of payment capacity promotes the willingness to enhance medical care and increase in medical expenses
Universal health insurance is undoubtedly the most basic and important part of the new health care reform, perhaps in the distant future, commercial insurance will take the place of health insurance, but in the current situation, the universal health insurance is undoubtedly the most feasible and most direct and most reliable way of obtaining medical care for the whole population, and its impact on residents' medical behaviors is decisive, the significance is not only in the amount of coverage itself, but also the amount of new premiums. The significance lies not only in the increase in costs brought about by the amount of coverage itself, but more importantly in the enhancement of the willingness to receive medical care and the consequent release of potential demand.
From the point of view of expenditure, the total amount of health insurance financing will eventually be transformed into medical expenses. Under the premise that the reimbursement rate remains unchanged, the scope of reimbursement remains unchanged, and the level of protection does not increase, the total amount of expected health insurance payments as well as reimbursement rates, the medical costs and its incremental increase in the portion of the reimbursement-eligible portion of medical costs spent by this part of the patient is measured. Measurements show that the incremental medical costs incurred by the group of people reimbursed by health insurance in 2009 and 2010 were about 67 billion yuan and 140 billion yuan, respectively. (3) In 2010, the growth of medical expenses will eventually be transformed into the power of the drug market expansion
In today's domestic pharmaceutical industry's operating mechanism, the rapid growth of medical expenses essentially means that the rapid growth of drug spending, that is, it means the rapid expansion of the drug market. To general hospitals, for example, in 2008, its inpatient and outpatient drug expenditure ratio of 43.90% and 50.50%, respectively, than in 2007, instead of decreasing. It is believed that the existence of such a situation will not last, after changing the inappropriate situation of the proportion of individual payment is too high, the next step in the health care reform will certainly strive to change the "medicine for medicine" industry operation mechanism, and gradually adjust the relationship of interests between payers, medical institutions, pharmaceutical industry and pharmaceutical business.
Before the operation model of public hospitals and the compensation of medical institutions are solved, it is very difficult to reduce the price of medicines on a large scale and the effect is still poor, and the situation that medicines are the largest part of medical expenses will not change. In the short term, due to the hospitals in the next three years will choose a number of cities to carry out public hospital reform pilot gradually abolish the drug markup, coupled with the final implementation of the basic drug system, general hospitals will have the proportion of the use of basic drugs requirements, which led to the decline in the proportion of drug expenditures, judging that the proportion of drug expenditures will be declining, but the reduction in 2010 may not be very large, it is expected that until the abolition of the markup and the It is expected that the abolition of the markup and the basic drug system (extended version and local supplementary varieties) after the implementation of the proportion of drug expenditures will be a substantial decline, and the final completion of the time should be in 2012 after. 3, the primary health care system reconstruction is to pull the medical equipment market growth of the biggest power
Primary health care system reconstruction is a focus of this round of health care reform. China's "reform of the medical and health system in the near future focus on the implementation of the program" clearly put forward in the next three years, China will focus on supporting the construction of about 2,000 county hospitals as well as 29,000 township health centers, and at the same time expand 5,000 central township health centers. And in the new health care reform in the investment of 850 billion of 16.5 billion all targeted to the country's 29,000 township health centers and urban community health service institutions, all as its medical equipment equipment purchase subsidies, in 2009, China will invest another 37 billion yuan for 70% of the country's county hospitals for the renovation and expansion of, which also includes the renewal and upgrading of the primary institutions of the medical equipment products, estimated to account for about 1 / 3 of the investment, that is, 10-12 billion yuan, which will be used for the construction of county hospitals. It is estimated that it will account for about 1/3 of the investment, i.e. 10-12 billion yuan, and it is expected that this trend may continue in 2010.
In the primary health care system reconstruction of the pull, the medical device market, especially low-end medical equipment market will usher in the development of a good opportunity, is expected in 2010, 2011 revenue growth is expected to return to about 25%. 4, increase the public **** health investment to pull the vaccine industry growth
2009-2011 government investment to the public **** health funds are expected to be 75 billion yuan, and the new health care reform implementation program further clarifies the plan of immunization borne by the central government, the per capita basic public **** health investment in 2009 was not less than 15 yuan, 2011 was not less than 20 yuan, and to achieve the urban and rural per capita basic public **** health equalization.
Judging that the purchase of vaccines will be one of the important elements of the basic public **** health investment, and is expected to routinely used to purchase vaccines (excluding the influenza A vaccine) to reach 2.5 billion yuan per year, and will gradually increase, the increased costs for the new vaccine and to expand the scope of vaccination. As a result of the influenza A epidemic, the domestic vaccine industry has seen explosive growth, and its impact is expected to last 2-3 years, by which the vaccine industry will still maintain high growth in 2010, but the growth of different categories and varieties varies greatly. In addition, unless the A flu epidemic continues, product exports, included in the plan of immunization or in the domestic manufacturers in the field of cancer, AIDS and other vaccines to make a breakthrough, the domestic vaccine industry in the short and medium term outbreaks may be presented after the high and low running trend. (B) foreign demand has recovered, API is expected to get out of the trough
Accessories are divided into bulk APIs and specialty APIs. 2009 China's main bulk API products out of the bottom of the trend of recovery, exports are also rising month by month, Vitamin C
and Vitamin E
Products benefited from the advantages of a high degree of industrial concentration, the price remained relatively high, the profitability of enterprises. The profitability of enterprises remained high. While other vitamin products and antibiotics due to the overall supply exceeds demand and industry pattern of fragmentation, prices remain at the bottom of the history of the enterprise's operating efficiency declined sharply; characteristics of the overall impact of the impact of the decline in overseas sales of raw materials is even more impact, the price and sales volume fell by a large margin, the enterprise's profitability has to be restored.
As China's APIs in 2/3
export, so changes in demand in overseas markets on China's API products have a great impact. 2009 1-8 months, the revenue of 123.2 billion yuan of APIs, year-on-year growth of only 8.51%, the slowest growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry in the sub-sector, but in 2009 1-11 months, the revenue of the APIs to reach 177,676 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.05%. billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.05%, the recovery speed is obviously accelerated.
It is expected that the recovery trend of APIs will continue in 2010. With the gradual stabilization and recovery of the global economy, the downstream demand for APIs has increased, which will drive the APIs out of the trough. It is expected that the chemical API sub-sector 2010
, 2011 sales revenue growth is expected to reach about 20%, profit growth is expected to reach about 25%.