Trend 2: Internet migration to mobile, get the mobile Internet to get the world
Global mobile Internet usage continues to grow, accounting for 25% of the overall Internet (as of May 2014), last year, this data is only 14%, the use of the proportion of a year within the doubling of the penetration rate of mobile Internet users in Asia has also grown from 23% last year to 37%, the growth rate is extremely fast. As of June 2014, the size of China's mobile Internet users reached 527 million, an increase of 26.99 million from the end of 2013, and the penetration rate of China's mobile Internet users (Internet users as a percentage of China's population) reached 39.1%, i.e., nearly 40% of the Chinese people are using their cell phones to access the Internet. Meanwhile, the proportion of Internet users using cell phones to access the Internet further increased from 81.0% in December 2013 to 83.4% in June 2014, and the scale of mobile Internet users surpassed the scale of traditional PC Internet users for the first time.
Internet products and services should also follow the Internet users. In 2012 and 2013, many large Internet companies have surpassed the PC traffic on the mobile side, and many large Internet companies have migrated their PC business users to the mobile side, showing a slowdown in the growth of the PC business and rapid growth of the mobile business. If an Internet company does not have a fist product in the mobile terminal, it will soon be subverted by the wave of mobile Internet. In the next two to three years, the mobile Internet to get the world.
Trend 3: Global traditional media in serious decline, China's online advertising revenue beyond the TV advertising has become an irreversible trend
China's mainstream media, TV advertising and newspaper advertising revenue market share from 2009 began to show a clear downward trend, in 2011, online advertising revenue surpassed the newspaper's revenue in 2013, online advertising revenue then In 2013, online advertising revenues surpassed television advertising revenues, and online media became the number one advertising revenue medium. In 2014, the revenue share of online advertising will continue to grow, while television continues to decline, and the revenue share of online advertising will continue to significantly lead the market.
In the U.S., although the Internet advertising market share has not yet surpassed that of TV, the gap is narrowing, especially as the media consumption hours of the Internet have significantly surpassed those of TV, which will contribute to the further prosperity of the U.S. Internet advertising market, while the U.S. market for paper media and radio is shrinking severely in terms of both media consumption hours and advertising market share.
Trend 4: Online advertising will be the world of effectual advertising, and precision advertising with big data will become an important development driver of online advertising
In 2013, effectual advertising with CPC and CPA as the billing method had a market share of 66.6%, and in 2014, the proportion will be more than 70%. In China's online advertising market, where effect-based advertising is the mainstream, precision advertising technology will become an important driving force in the online advertising market. We see that new big-data-based precision advertising forces such as 360's dot-matrix system and Tencent's wide-point pass are rising rapidly, and their market position is already comparable to that of traditional portals. Games and e-commerce are the main customer groups of these precision advertising systems. With the further development of these customer groups and the further development of precision advertising systems in terms of big data, we have reason to believe that these big data-driven precision advertising forces will become the most important driving force for change and development in the online advertising market.
Trend 5: Internet Consumer Finance Market is Rising, Large Platform Internet Enterprises Will Drive Rapid Market Development
Internet Consumer Finance is a modern service finance method that provides consumer loans to consumers for purchasing consumer goods through the Internet, including housing loans, auto loans, travel loans, student loans, etc. The Internet consumer finance market is in the process of development. China's Internet consumer finance market is in the beginning stage of development, and the transaction scale of China's Internet consumer finance market reached 6.00 billion yuan in 2013. From the point of view of the composition of the transaction scale of Internet consumer finance, the transaction scale of Internet consumer finance in 2013 was mainly dominated by P2P consumer credit, and data from Ai Rui Consulting showed that the proportion was as high as 97.5%.The e-commerce giants entered the field for the first time in 2014, and at the beginning of 2014, Jingdong took the lead in launching the white bar service, and then Tmall launched the staging service in July.The strong entry of e-commerce giants in 2014 has led to a significant market pattern. The strong entry of e-commerce giants in 2014 has led to significant changes in the market pattern. Consumer credit transactions generated through e-commerce platforms accounted for 32% of the size of Internet financial transactions in 2014, and it is expected that the proportion will increase to more than 40% in 2015, and more than half of the total in 2016, and the size of the consumer finance transactions generated through e-commerce platforms will become the main body of the market. Along with the entry of Jingdong and Tmall into the market, the transaction scale will exceed 16 billion yuan in 2014, with a growth rate of more than 170%. 2017, the overall market will exceed 100 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 94% in the next three years. The market growth is driven by the strong entry of e-commerce giants into the market, as well as more platform-based Internet companies such as real estate websites and automotive websites joining the market.
Trend #6: The Internet is strongly penetrating into the health field, creating a wave of Internet health
More and more users are using the Internet to find health-related solutions, which has led to the rapid development of the mobile Internet health market. Within the last 3 years, both global high-tech companies such as Apple, Google and Microsoft, and domestic Internet giants such as BAT are coveting the mobile health market. From mobile registration to daily health management services, and from health monitoring to prevention and management of chronic diseases, a wave of Internet health is being set off.
The future development of the Internet health market is mainly driven by three forces:
(1) Favorable national policies
In May 2014, the State Food and Drug Administration issued the "Supervision and Administration of Internet Food and Drug Business (Draft)", which intends to liberalize the online sale of prescription drugs, and proposes to allow the third-party logistics and distribution of drugs.
The "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Pharmaceutical Industry" proposes that the pharmaceutical industry has a low degree of industrial concentration, and the problems of many, small and scattered enterprises are prominent, resulting in excessive competition, waste of resources and environmental pollution. It will set the goal of industrial concentration in 2015, the sales revenue of the top 100 enterprises accounted for more than 50% of the industry.
(2) Driven by Technology-Related Factors
The development of mobile internet and big data will change the existing medical and healthcare service model - remote booking, telemedicine, monitoring of chronic diseases, and big data management will gradually become possible.
Sensor development. Traditional wearable sensors wristbands, heart rate bands, pedometers, motion sensors, smart clothes sensors are developing rapidly; and the development of non-implantable electrochemical sensors, using the sensor detection of tears, saliva, sweat and skin tissue fluids and other body fluids, to fill the gap of real-time monitoring of diseases and drug efficacy in the body.
(3) Changes in the social and natural environments
Aging. 2050, the population of people aged 60 and above will increase to nearly 440 million, accounting for 34% of China's total population, and enter a stage of deep aging. China's growing aging trend underpins the growth of healthcare;
Pollution. Climate change and pollution exacerbate human health hazards, providing room for health industry growth. Data suggests that about 2 million people die worldwide each year from air pollution. The consequences of pollution of water resources and air will become more and more obvious in the next 10 years. On the one hand, pollution will make people pay more attention to disease prevention and treatment, and increase health care expenditure; on the other hand, people will invest in the treatment of diseases brought about by pollution will also increase.
(4) large Internet and IT companies to pay attention to and vigorously participate in the promotion of
Alibaba's layout from hospitals to pharmacies, from registration to payment has covered almost every aspect of the medical industry. Alibaba invested in pharmaceutical e-commerce CITIC 21st Century Technology Co., Ltd. 10 months later, the latter has been officially renamed "Ali Health"; Alipay announced the "future hospital" program, announced that it will open its platform capabilities to medical institutions; Ali launched a drug Electronic platform, "Ali Health" client in Shijiazhuang for the first time to intervene in the hospital electronic prescription link, through the "prescription electronic" pilot, with a view to realizing the purchase of prescription drugs outside the hospital. Domestic pharmaceutical terminal sales revenue, prescription drugs accounted for 80%, the market potential is very huge.
Tencent spent 70 million U.S. dollars in strategic investment in health care Internet company Ding Xiangyuan; Tencent led the investment of more than 100 million U.S. dollars in the registration network; mobile QQ latest version of the launch of the health center, hope that based on the social user data of the hand Q, to the industry chain of hardware and software vendors to do the integration; to create a micro-medicine platform, and micro-telecommunications, QQ through the access, so that the hospital doctor access to provide convenient medical services for the registration network, micro-telecommunications, QQ users. The user to provide convenient medical services.
Baidu cooperated with the Beijing municipal government to build a health cloud platform, integrating upstream smart medical equipment vendors and downstream telemedicine service providers to provide personalized health services based on smart hardware devices.
Millet invested $25 million in iHealth, a subsidiary of JiuAn Medical; Apple released a new health app, named "Healthkit," which integrates data collected by other health apps on the iPhone or iPad, such as blood pressure and weight; and Samsung also launched its health app. Samsung has also launched its health tracking platform SAMI; Google has launched Google Fit; and Microsoft has launched its Microsoft Health health and fitness cloud service platform.
Trend 7: online education inflection point, the future of the market rapid growth
China Economic Net data show that in the first half of 2014, the total investment in domestic online education up to 2.5 billion yuan, the total investment in foreign online education of 2.4 billion yuan, while no less than 1 billion yuan of investment in August, 500 million yuan of investment in October, the prediction of the whole year of 2014, the investment in online education in the country as high as 5-8 billion yuan or so, the global online education investment is estimated to total tens of billions.
Ai Rui consulting data show that the 2014 online education market size will reach 99.8 billion, a growth rate of 19%, the market is still in a faster rate of growth. 2015, the inflection point of market growth is coming, the next three years 2015, 2016 and 2017 continue to grow rapidly, the growth rate of about 20%. Academic education and vocational online education are the main drivers of the high growth of market size. However, it is worth our attention that the primary and secondary online education market will grow faster than the entire online education market, the growth rate of the primary and secondary online education market size in 2014 was 34%, and the growth rate in the next three years 2015, 2016 and 2017 will be 35%, 39% and 39%, respectively, presenting a high-speed growth trend.
The current changes in the field of education are mainly from the mobile Internet and big data. The vast majority of the original Internet education relies on the PC terminal, the Internet era has completely entered the mobile Internet era, with tablets and smart phones, online education from a relatively centralized learning into the state of fragmented learning, which requires a change in the form of online education products; and due to the development of big data also makes online education more intelligent and scientific, for example, we can use big data to establish the error question bank to optimize the focus of the teacher's lectures, or through big data to assist students to answer questions, scientific assessment of learning performance, optimize the focus of learning, such as ape question bank, learning treasure and excellent answer.
Trend 8: Online Travel Market Competition Becomes More Intense, and Changes Are Brewing in the Market
The transaction scale of China's online travel booking market will reach 287.2 billion in 2014. Influenced by the continuous and large-scale price war in the industry, the revenue scale of the online travel OTA market grew at a lower rate than the overall online travel market in 2013 and 2014.
Looking ahead to 2015, the following trends will continue:
(1) Price wars, companies increase revenue but not profit. The third-quarter earnings reports of four U.S.-listed Chinese OTAs show that net profits are still declining at an accelerated pace, but the price wars among all parties are getting hotter and hotter. Ctrip's third-quarter net operating income of 2.1 billion yuan, up 38 percent year-on-year, but net profit of 217 million yuan, down 42 percent year-on-year. This is Ctrip's third consecutive quarter of negative net profit growth; Where to go company in the third quarter of 2014 total revenue of 501.1 million yuan, an increase of 107.8% year-on-year; but the net loss attributable to shareholders expanded to 566.2 million yuan. However, Ctrip still announced in December 2014 that it would spend $1 billion on a massive promotion. Tongcheng and Toutiao also publicly called each other out.
(2) Online air ticket market is more concentrated. The price war in the online air ticket booking market continues, the pressure on small and medium-sized online agents gradually increases, profit margins decrease, and the OTA distribution structure will gradually be centralized.
(3) The status of direct online hotel sales continues to improve. As the price war will continue, to promote the direct sale of hotel websites continue to rise. Currently online hotel booking site user scale, where to go, Ctrip, Yilong first camp, and direct marketing website 7 days hotel in 2013 also entered and stayed in the first camp; is expected in 2015 there will be 1-2 direct marketing class hotel user scale into the first camp.
(4) The online vacation market is growing faster than the overall online travel market. 2014 online vacation market transaction scale growth rate of 42%, much higher than the growth rate of the online travel market (27.5%), 2015 will continue to maintain high growth, the growth rate will be more than 35%. This is mainly due to the gradual increase in demand for vacation and leisure trips, driven by the growth of car rentals, vacation apartments and other businesses.
(5) Online tickets have been focused by online travel companies, and competition has become more white-hot.2014 was the first year of the development of online tickets, while 2015 entered a white-hot competition stage. Ticket market as the entrance of leisure tourism, easier to cross-sell vacation products, so seize the ticket market helps for the development of the vacation market.
(6) The heat of outbound travel is gradually increasing. With the increase in income and quality of life of users of travel booking, users have a stronger demand for outbound travel. It is expected that in the next few years, the heat of online booking of outbound tours will continue to rise, and the share will further expand; at the same time, there will be more Internet companies focusing on outbound tours.
(7) Mobile migration and competition are more intense. Many large online booking enterprises whose mobile traffic has exceeded the PC traffic, online tourism price war and service war has been transferred from PC to mobile, mobile competition is more intense in 2015, online tourism enterprises will continue to increase the mobile side of the substantial promotions and cashback.
Trend 9: O2O in the field of real estate to do closed-loop, accelerate the transformation to meet the development
2014 China's real estate market entered a period of adjustment, the high level of inventory of commercial residential units around the world, a shift in expectations of the market to further affect the overall pace of new construction, the growth rate of real estate investment declined significantly. The market wait-and-see mood is significant, the development enterprise's investment and push the rhythm have been adjusted. 2014 since the market turnover as a whole downward, the market turnover compared to last year fell sharply. Data from the China Index Research Institute showed that from January to November 2014, the average monthly turnover of the 50 representative cities was 22.73 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 13.6%, basically the same as the same period of 2012, which was 10.6% and 24.5% higher than the same period of 2010 and 2011, respectively. The impact of the above on the real estate industry has been transmitted to real estate websites, resulting in a slowdown in revenue growth for real estate websites. For example, Soufun, a listed company, is expected to post revenue of US$730 million in 2014, with an annual revenue growth rate of 15%, a significant decline from 48% in 2013. Against this backdrop, real estate websites are proactively making changes, making sales closures and accelerating transformation.
In the coming year, the real estate sector is worth paying attention to the direction of real estate O2O, home O2O, community O20 and real estate-related Internet finance.
(1) real estate O2O. real estate website actively seeking sales closed loop, not only to help online promotion, but also need to be implemented to the offline sales link, to achieve the scale of the transaction. Soufun, Lodging, Anjuke and 365 real estate network, etc. are in different degrees to realize the real estate O2O.
(2) Home O2O. There are several modes: real estate websites and home furnishing websites to open the experience of the offline physical stores, online sales mode; traditional home furnishing shopping malls to build their own e-commerce platform mode; traditional home furnishing malls to alliance, self-built alliance site of the network group purchasing mode; traditional home furnishing enterprises in the e-commerce platform Sales mode.
(3) community O2O. from vegetables, fruits, property, housekeeping services and other community shopping and services, are community O2O service scope. Real estate developers represented by Vanke and Fancy, e-commerce companies such as Alibaba, real estate websites such as Soufun and 365 Real Estate, and financial institutions such as Minsheng Bank and Societe Generale Bank have already entered the field to varying degrees.
(4) Internet finance. In order to better do the closed loop, many large real estate websites into the field of Internet finance, mainly targeting users in the process of home purchase and renovation of the loan problem. 2014, we see a series of big moves in the Internet finance of real estate websites: Soufun through the establishment of the Internet financial information services limited company, and the introduction of multi-party strategic cooperation mode layout Internet financial system. Sina and E-House China joined hands to set up the Housing Financial Services Co., Ltd. and launched the Internet real estate financial services platform "Housing Financial Services". 365 real estate network intends to set up a financial information services company.
Trend 10: Social platforms will accelerate ecological integration and create a one-stop service platform for communication, entertainment, living, shopping and learning based on social networking
In the three major categories of social networking apps, the overall coverage of Internet users is the highest for instant messaging, the second social networking sites, and the last microblogging. Instant messaging (IM) reached 89% coverage among overall Internet users. And what's worth noting is that Tencent almost leads the market for these three types of mainstream social applications. In the instant messaging space, Tencent's QQ and WeChat have penetration rates of 78% and 65% of Internet users, respectively, while Qzone has a penetration rate of 57%, and Tencent's microblogging is at 27%, only 1% lower than that of Sina Weibo. The most noteworthy is WeChat, online only four years after the penetration rate of 65% of Internet users, the development speed is extremely fast.
In the coming year, social platforms will accelerate the integration of social-related ecosystems, and build online one-stop service platforms for communication, entertainment, living, shopping and learning based on social networking.
(1) In terms of communication, Tencent has put forward the product concept of "joy in communication," and QQ and WeChat will continue to improve the product experience of voice and video communication, especially QQ's multi-person video communication, to improve the one-to-many and many-to-many communication experience in work and education scenarios; and Sina Weibo is testing the group communication function in anticipation of capturing a greater share of the market in social communication.
(2) In terms of entertainment, Tencent, Sina, Renren and other social platforms are actively providing PC games and mobile game services for their users, and are doing a good job of commercializing the games on the big board of social users. These social platforms have already achieved good development in mobile games in 2014, and it is expected that they will pay more attention to the direction of the mobile games for social users in the next two years.
(3) in terms of life, in early 2014, tencent invested in shares of popular commentary, accounting for 20% of the shares, quickly seize the entrance to the life of O2O; and earlier, tencent invested in tic-tac-toe. In the coming year, in the living aspect of the social platform will continue to accelerate the speed of integration, in order to invest or acquire the way to quickly expand the market.
(4) In shopping, in early 2014, Tencent to 214 million U.S. dollars to buy a 15% stake in Jingdong, the cooperation is conducive to the rapid development of the two in the field of e-commerce; and in 2013, Alibaba to 586 million U.S. dollars to buy 18% of the shares of Sina microblogging, at the same time, the two to carry out a full range of strategic cooperation in the future, Ali also has the right to pre-agreed pricing method, the In the future, Ali also has the right to increase its stake in Sina Weibo to 30% at a pre-agreed price. In the coming year, the social platform will continue to increase cooperation in the e-commerce space, especially to promote the integration of social and mobile e-commerce.
(5) In terms of learning, social platforms will take advantage of their natural communication capabilities and user resources to push into online education. Tencent, for example, "Tencent classroom" from two aspects of online education: on the one hand, the QQ group as a network classroom to do live education, and on the other hand, the boutique class as a resource platform to do recorded education. Meanwhile, Tencent and New Oriental announced in July 2014 the establishment of a joint venture company "micro-learning tomorrow", to enter the mobile learning market. 2014 February YY also formally announced its entry into online education, spun off an independent brand 100 education. It is expected that in 2015, social platforms will pay more attention to the development and investment in the education market, and the competition will become more intense.