How to view the overall situation of China's economy Know

In the face of the current complex economic situation at home and abroad, there are bullish and negative views on the future development of China's economy. The fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed due to new changes in the international and domestic situation, and the momentum of economic growth remains strong. We need to address the outstanding contradictions in economic operation, grasp the direction, strength and rhythm of macro-control, and promote economic growth to continue to develop in the expected direction of macro-control.　　At present, China's economic development overall situation is good, economic growth from policy stimulation to independent growth in an orderly manner, continue to develop in the expected direction of macro-control. At the same time, the economic operation is also facing the challenges of high prices, slowing economic growth and increasing pressure of structural adjustment. In view of the outstanding contradictions in economic operation, we should grasp the direction, strength and rhythm of macro-control, not only to bring down the rate of price increase, but also not to make the economic growth rate fluctuate greatly, and make use of the favorable time to promote economic restructuring, deepen the reform of key areas and key links, and consolidate the good momentum of economic development.　　Although the economic growth rate has slowed down, it is still in the range of stable and relatively fast growth □ The current economic growth momentum is still strong, and the annual economic growth rate will still be higher than 9% Since the beginning of this year, China's economic growth has been stable in general, the rate of price increase has been controllable in general, and structural adjustment has been actively promoted, so the overall momentum of economic development has been good.　　First, the overall economic growth is stable. The first half of the economic growth rate than the first half of last year has slowed down, but still in a stable and relatively fast growth range. The role of domestic demand has been significantly strengthened, private investment to maintain a higher rate of increase, the total retail sales of consumer goods growth stabilized at a high level. The moderate slowdown in economic growth, both the impact of the global economic slowdown, but also China's initiative to control and market demand changes in the combined effect of the results, generally in line with the expected goals of macro-control.　　Second, price increases were generally manageable. Although the year-on-year increase in food and housing prices remained at a high level, the rate of price increase tended to converge, and the momentum of price increases was initially controlled.　　Third, structural adjustment has been actively promoted. In terms of demand structure, while the contribution of investment and exports to economic growth declined, the contribution of final consumption to economic growth increased. In terms of production structure, agricultural production inputs have increased, industrial production has grown steadily, strategic emerging industries have developed faster, and modern service industries such as modern logistics, software, information services, and cultural creativity have developed favorably. In terms of income structure, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents has grown relatively fast, financial investment in social security, education and healthcare has increased significantly, and the transfer income of urban and rural residents has increased significantly.　　On the whole, there are more favorable conditions for maintaining stable and rapid economic growth and controlling the momentum of price increases in the future, and the fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed due to new changes in the international and domestic situations, and the impetus for economic growth remains strong. Driven by the growth of investment in infrastructure such as water conservancy and livelihood projects such as guaranteed housing, industrial transfer and the development of strategic emerging industries, the rate of investment growth will remain at a high level; final consumption will maintain a relatively fast rate of growth in the face of improved employment conditions, sustained wage increases, and increased income and consumption capacity of both urban and rural residents; the rate of export growth will decline due to the impact of the slowdown in the global economy, but will still return to the normal level. normal level, the annual economic growth rate will still be higher than 9%. As the effect of prudent monetary policy further shows, the growth rate of total social demand slows down, coupled with the relatively abundant supply of food and major industrial products, the tailing factor gradually weakened, as well as the gradual implementation of measures to stabilize prices in place, the rate of price increases in the next few months will be reduced.　　The world economic recovery process is difficult and zigzagging, and the factors of instability and uncertainty are increasing □ With the continuous expansion of the total economic volume, it is becoming more difficult to maintain China's economy at a high growth rate for a longer period of time The world economic recovery process is difficult and zigzagging, and the factors of instability and uncertainty are increasing. The inherent conditions for China's economic development are relatively more favorable, but it is still facing more contradictions, which are highlighted by high prices, slowing economic growth and increasing pressure for structural adjustment.　　First, prices are running high. Because of the factors that drive prices up in the short term is difficult to eliminate, food, housing prices are still at a high year-on-year rate, labor wages and other factors such as rising cost pressure will persist, the task of curbing price increases in the next period is still very difficult.　　Second, the economic growth rate slowed down. From the point of view of investment demand, since this year the total planned investment in new projects has dropped significantly. From the perspective of final consumption, by the automobile, housing and other consumption hotspots cooling impact, coupled with the expiration of some of the policies to stimulate consumption withdrawn, consumption on economic growth will also weaken the pulling effect. From the point of view of external demand, the global economic slowdown and export enterprises production, capital, exchange rate costs increase and other factors superimposed, making the export growth rate showed a slowdown.　　Third, the pressure of structural adjustment increases. From the perspective of demand structure, the contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth is still lower than that of investment. From the structure of production, some high energy-consuming industries are growing faster, the supply and demand of electricity in local areas are tight, and the task of energy conservation and emission reduction is very serious. From the point of view of income structure, the growth of fiscal revenue and enterprise profit is still significantly higher than the growth of urban and rural residents' income. Structural imbalance makes short-term and long-term problems intertwined, and total balance and structural contradictions overlap, increasing the difficulty of macro-control.　　At the same time, affected by financing costs, rising raw material prices, rising wages, rising exchange rates and other factors, some enterprises have experienced increased difficulties in production and operation, and economic benefits have declined. The real estate market turnover shrank and the growth rate of housing completion declined, but the house prices in most cities remained at a high level, and the game between buyers and sellers put the market in a stalemate.　　III □ fully consider the impact of the domestic and foreign situation on the real economy, as well as the lagging and cumulative effects of the policy, to enhance the policy targeting, flexibility and foresight At present, the direction, strength and rhythm of macroeconomic regulation and control should be grasped from two aspects.　　First, we should deal with the relationship between maintaining the continuity and stability of macro policies and enhancing targeting, flexibility and forward-looking. At present, stabilizing the overall price level is still the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, and the orientation of macroeconomic regulation and control cannot be changed.　　At the same time, the situation at home and abroad is complex and volatile, we must enhance the pertinence, flexibility and foresight of macroeconomic policy. On the one hand, we must adhere to the implementation of prudent monetary policy, so that the growth rate of money and credit down gradually, in order to stabilize the overall level of prices to create conditions; on the other hand, we must take into account the complexity of the domestic and international situation of the changes in the production and operation of enterprises and the real economy, as well as the policy of the lag and the cumulative effect of the policy, to enhance the relevance of the policy, flexibility and foresight.　　Secondly, we have to deal with the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations, and find a "balance" between price control, stabilizing growth and adjusting structure, both to bring down the rate of price increases, and not to make the economic growth rate fluctuate greatly.　　At present, we need to focus on the outstanding contradictions in economic operation, and take effective measures to consolidate the momentum of economic and social development.　　First, to maintain the basic stability of the overall price level, and strive to bring down the rate of price increases. At present, we should continue to take comprehensive measures to curb excessive price rises, and strive to bring down the rate of price increases more in the latter months, so as to create conditions for price stabilization in the coming period.　　Second, to promote stable and rapid economic growth and enhance the pulling effect of domestic demand. Promoting stable and rapid economic growth is an important prerequisite and foundation for increasing employment and raising the incomes of urban and rural residents. The economic growth rate should be neither too high nor too low. Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand, enhance the power of economic growth on its own, improve policies to promote consumption, promote sustained income growth for urban and rural residents, encourage the development of new consumer sectors and consumer businesses, and promote sustained and rapid growth in private investment. At the same time, we should attach great importance to the impact of changes in the external market environment on import and export trade, take measures to stabilize external demand, and avoid the negative impact of a sharp drop in exports on industrial production, employment and economic growth.　　Third, we should promote economic restructuring and strive for greater progress. Adjusting the economic structure is a prerequisite for improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth. It is necessary to accelerate the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries, strengthen the research and development of key core technologies for industries, and support market expansion and business model innovation. It is necessary to address the outstanding difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), such as capital constraints, and improve the environment for the development of small enterprises. It is necessary to curb the development of "two highs" and overcapacity industries, and accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity.　　Fourth, we should deepen reforms in key areas and key links to stimulate the inherent vitality and momentum of economic development. It is necessary to push forward the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, and improve tax policies that are favorable to the upgrading of the industrial structure and the development of the service industry. It is necessary to push forward the reform of income distribution, and actively build a mechanism to synchronize the growth of residents' income and the national economy.　　Slowdown in stability, is China's economy into this year's trend, the third quarter this trend continues. The industry generally believes that the current decline in China's economic growth rate is still moderate. Sheng Laiyun judgment, from the point of view of the growth momentum and leading indicators, China's economy, the possibility of a "second bottoming out" is very small, is still a moderate decline in the range of the current "hard landing" to dispel the worry.　　The growth rate is conducive to adjusting the structure and price stability China International Center for Economic Exchanges Consulting and Research Deputy Minister Wang Jun said, "the economic growth rate should not be too much pursuit of the growth rate to slow down to improve tolerance, to take the initiative to the speed of the appropriate down, is conducive to adjusting the structure and stability of prices; prices can not be increased tolerance, inflation on the operation of the economy and social life have a lot of harm. "　　The moderate slowdown in economic growth, to stabilize prices to create a loose external environment. since August, China's total consumer price level year-on-year increase has been two consecutive months of a slight decline.　　External risks increase internal difficulties increase domestic and external economic situation are undergoing new changes, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences analysis report that the European and American debt crisis will affect China's future economy through three channels: through exports affect China's real economy, through the financial channel to affect the stability of China's economy, pessimistic expectations will affect the investment and consumer confidence. September China's export data sounded an alarm, the month's export chain ratio showed a negative growth of 2.1%. Considering that it usually takes 4 to 6 months for the slump in external demand to be passed on to export orders, and the trend of RMB appreciation, the future export situation is not optimistic. External export slump, internal rising costs, financing difficulties, the development of domestic enterprises, especially private enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprises are facing a lot of difficulties, the third quarter of China's entrepreneurial confidence and business sentiment index both fell.　　Policies stable strain actively prevent risks Currently, the country is taking loans to small and medium-sized enterprises to implement a series of policy measures to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, more important than the specific response to the overall direction of China's macroeconomic policy. "The next stage of macro-control both to maintain policy continuity, stability, but also to enhance the policy of forward-looking, targeted and flexible, and further deal with the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and management of inflation expectations, increase the intensity of reform and innovation, accelerate the economic restructuring and transformation of the mode of development, and pay more attention to safeguarding and improving people's livelihood. " Sheng Laiyun emphasized.　　Experts generally believe that in the case of excessive price increases have not yet been effectively resolved, the monetary policy should not be relaxed; but in the context of the difficulties in corporate financing, it is not appropriate to further tighten. In the "dilemma" situation, monetary policy should increase some structural, directional measures, while more play the role of fiscal policy, such as reducing the tax burden on small and medium-sized enterprises. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences report that the current macro-control should be effective in curbing inflation, but also to maintain good and rapid economic development, macro-control to stabilize the main policy with prudent and flexible.