For a time, the market began to be full of pessimistic remarks, and short-term shocks may trigger profit-taking. However, after two years of trade war and a rare global slump at the beginning of the year, the impact of this level on A shares is actually limited.
On the contrary, it is likely to cause the wind direction to change again. Before the holiday, the disk has already responded, and the technology semiconductor will return to the main line of the market for three main reasons.
First, according to the experience of the past two years, almost every time the United States does something about China's semiconductor industry, individual stocks in the sector will respond by rising.
For example, the sharp escalation of the trade war between 2065438 and early August 2009 is the starting point of this round of semiconductor doubling market.
Second, in the face of foreign comments, China directly and positively responded to the latest new semiconductor export regulations issued by the United States, giving a quick and powerful response.
On April 27th, a number of government departments jointly issued the Measures for Network Security Review, which took effect on June 1 this year. All electronic products from the United States, including telecommunications, power and Internet companies, such as Microsoft, Google, Cisco, Apple and Qualcomm, will be under strict scrutiny.
The implementation of the "Network Security Review Measures" will increase the difficulty for foreign products to enter the domestic key information infrastructure, and the domestic substitution process will be further accelerated, which means that compared with the beginning of the 20 18 trade war, the technical level of China's semiconductor industry has improved a lot.
Third, nearly 70% of A-share semiconductor companies achieved normal growth in the first quarter (exceeding the pharmaceutical and consumer industries), and the performance of leading companies was not only unaffected by the epidemic, but also greatly exceeded market expectations.
Will shares: the net profit in the first quarter was 445 million yuan, up 800% year-on-year, and the company's overseas income accounted for 75%. Is the third largest CIS manufacturer in the world, with a rich CIS product line.
Huatian Technology: The net profit in the first quarter was 63 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 276%, and the company's overseas income accounted for 59%. It is one of the leading packaging and testing enterprises in China, and its production capacity ranks third among domestic professional packaging enterprises. Orders were full in the second quarter.
Zhuo Shengwei: The net profit in the first quarter was 65.438+52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 263%. The company's overseas income accounts for 72%. It is a leading supplier of RF chips in Qualcomm and has added four local manufacturing and packaging plants.
Ziguang Guowei: The net profit in the first quarter was 65.438+0.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 654.38+0.83%. The company's overseas revenue accounts for 654.38+0.9%, focusing on the main business of logic chips. It is a leading enterprise with scarce high-end FPGA+ and special IC in China.
Nanda Optoelectronics: The net profit in the first quarter was 35 million yuan, up 65,438+023% year-on-year, and the company's overseas income accounted for 65,438+04%, making it one of the leading companies in the photoresist field.
Shengbang shares: the net profit in the first quarter was 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 965,438+0%. The company basically has no overseas income, benefiting from the domestic substitution wave, and the unit price and gross profit margin of products have both increased.
Jiangfeng Electronics: The net profit in the first quarter was170,000 yuan, up 56% year-on-year, and the company's overseas income accounted for 7 1% (decreasing gradually). It is the leading sputtering target in China, with huge import substitution space, which greatly benefits from domestic substitution.
Zhongying Electronics: The net profit in the first quarter was 42 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and the company's overseas income accounted for 29%. It is the leading enterprise of domestic household appliance MCU master control chip, benefiting from the obvious improvement of domestic substitution share.
The above analysis is the short-term logic that the plate may break out. In fact, the semiconductor industry has a strong long-term logic.
First of all, the construction and application of 5G will bring huge increment to the semiconductor industry.
The 5G communication network needs to build a base station, and the equipment transmits signals, which requires a lot of semiconductors. Fashion applications such as big data, smart city, cloud computing, medical IT, government IT and driverless based on 5G need more semiconductor components to run on computers and other terminals.
Second, there is a lot of room for substitution in China.
According to the statistical data of 20 19, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency rate is only 10%- 15%. After the beginning of the trade war, these orders began to shift to Europe, Japan and South Korea, and more of them were transferred by domestic enterprises. In the past, the domestic proportion was only 10%- 15%. If we want to reach 30% now, that is to double the demand.
Affected by this year's epidemic, the global semiconductor industry began to reshape. In the short term, it is difficult for European enterprises to start work, and some production capacity in Japan and South Korea has been seriously affected. Domestic substitution has ushered in an opportunity to accelerate development.
On the whole, the semiconductor plate has long-term and short-term logic, which is likely to be one of the next operation directions.
At this stage, participating semiconductor companies can choose their targets from the following three dimensions.
First, the company's technology or products belong to the first echelon in China, and most of its operating income comes from China;
Second, the performance of the first quarterly report has a good growth rate (preferably higher than the industry average), and it is expected that the performance of the interim report will continue to grow at a high speed;
Third, the stock market was good in the early stage, enthusiastically sought after by funds, and the technical stage was solid.