The second level is that of the real economy. According to the International Monetary Fund on the 8th published the latest issue of the "World Economic Outlook" report, the financial crisis is making the world economy into a "serious downturn" period. The growth of developed countries in Europe and the United States has slowed down significantly, and some countries have even experienced negative growth. In this situation, the import demand for Chinese goods will shrink significantly, which for the high degree of dependence on foreign trade in China, the slowdown in the growth of trade surplus or even negative growth, the growth of China's GDP will have an impact.
The third level is the issue of confidence. At present, the Chinese government and entrepreneurs are still relatively optimistic about the future stability of China's economy. However, in the downturn of the international economy, confidence is affected, they will still increase investment? That is the question.
Daike said it was a fact that China's economic growth was slowing anyway, and that the country's growth forecast for 2008 was already two percentage points lower than last year's, and that growth was likely to be even slower next year. However, China's economy is still growing, inflation is still within control, and the Chinese economy is far from being at risk of "stagflation". Daike said the Chinese often say that risk and opportunity go hand in hand, and he agrees. In this economic crisis and in the future of the world financial order, China is playing and will play a more important role, this is certain.
China already contributes more than 10 percent of global GDP in terms of purchasing power, with the European Union and the United States contributing more than 20 percent. China's importance in the international economy has become self-evident. For a foreseeable period of time, China will become one of the world's largest investors, China's rights and responsibilities in the international economic order inevitably also increased, China is not only a participant in the world's economic and financial order, but also will become the new order of the formulator
This year out of a lot of macro-policies, and the first half of the year and the second half of the opposite. In the first half of the CPI continued to grow, macro policy to inhibit investment growth, the second half of the international financial crisis continues to ferment, macro policy to promote economic growth.
1, monetary policy: the first half of a sustained contraction of the money supply, the main means is to increase the reserve requirement ratio and the issuance of central bank notes; the second half of the year began to reduce the reserve requirement ratio, and the basic outline to stop the issuance of central bank notes, which means that the community's total currency increase, can stimulate investment. There is still a lot of room for the reserve requirement ratio to fall.
2, interest rate policy: the theory that rising interest rates can inhibit investment, but the first half of the number of interest rate hikes is not much, which is mainly concerned about the interest rate differentials with foreign countries is too large to attract international capital, but increased the possibility of inflation. The second half of the year is a succession of strong interest rate cuts, and will cut interest rates in the future is to stimulate investment.
3, fiscal policy: the first half of the fiscal policy is prudent, to balance the books or a slight surplus as the goal, the second half of the year was changed to an active expansionary fiscal policy, 2 years of 4 trillion of fiscal spending is to increase government spending to make up for the weakness of foreign markets.
4, the exchange rate policy: stabilization! RMB is now rising can not be lowered. Rise, that will give export-oriented enterprises to a fatal blow; drop, not to say that the United States and Europe will be strongly opposed, even from the point of view of China's economy, will also cause the current domestic deformity of more development, is really a benefit and a hundred harms. China only completely change segregation of unfair distribution of national income, increase the people's income and consumption capacity, in order to solve, when the RMB will still be on the track of appreciation.
5, tax policy: the reform of the tax increment, an appropriate increase in export tax rebates can reduce the burden on enterprises, to help enterprises through the difficult times; improve the bottom line of personal income tax levy, increase the people's disposable income, in order to increase consumption.
6, industrial policy: use this opportunity to shut down a number of backward enterprises to reduce market competition and resource consumption.
7, people's livelihood policy: promote medical reform, strengthen retirement, medical, unemployment insurance, accelerate the construction of low-cost housing and other policies can effectively reduce the pressure of personal life, increase personal disposable income and thus increase consumption.
In response to the financial crisis of economic contraction, unemployment increase and other negative impacts, the main policy measures are as follows, it should be said that these policy measures are related to economic growth, inflation, unemployment, balance of payments 4 aspects of the country's macroeconomic purposes are related to the positive impact:
1. Loose fiscal policy: reduce taxes (has been implemented in the decline in the securities transaction tax and the abolition of interest tax The easing of monetary policy: the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio and the benchmark interest rate for loans are aimed at increasing the supply of money in the market and expanding investment and consumption. 27 October 2008 also saw the implementation of a 30% discount on the interest rate for the first set of housing loans. The industry is the first to bear the brunt of the impact, and a large number of employees (according to statistics has reached hundreds of millions of people). One is to increase the export tax rebate; the other is the appreciation of the RMB, both of which are means to increase the competitiveness of exports;
4. Reduce the burden on enterprises: the adjustment of the labor law, etc.
5. Strengthen the public **** financial expenditures on social security/medical care, etc., to maintain a stable environment for socio-economic development;
6. Foreign economic cooperation and coordination. etc.
1 downward adjustment of stamp duty is a major positive, this policy is actually to reduce the transaction costs of market participants, will play a stabilizing effect on the market. Most importantly, the reduction in stamp duty releases a clear policy signal that the management wants to restore confidence in the market.
2. The stamp duty reduction shows the management's attitude to stabilize the market, while the current round of decline has already reacted to the shortcomings in all aspects from the stock price.
3. From the "5-30" and other historical experience, the reduction of stamp duty will undoubtedly greatly boost the short-term trend of the stock market, but can not change the running trend of the stock index.
In short, the reduction of stamp duty is not a cure-all for all ills, "panacea", in the domestic stock market to maintain confidence at the same time, but also to see the uncertainty of the market, as well as the market itself there are problems
Theoretical significance: when most of the money deposited in the bank ~ interest rates down ~ to stimulate spending! Or take the money to invest ~ it is equivalent to people to take the money to the bank again there is no interest! So this is the time to take the money out to go into the market or consumption ~ stimulate the growth of the market economy ~ this time the loan interest rate is relatively low, but also stimulate the loan to invest in the market ~
Policy significance: interest rates down, the interest rate on government bonds will rise ~ this time to stimulate more people to buy treasury bonds, so that the national treasury of the money will be more circulating!
Reserve deposits are the money deposited by commercial banks into the central bank in accordance with the regulations, and these money accounts for the proportion of deposits absorbed by commercial banks is the reserve requirement ratio, for example, there are 100 deposits, paid 15 reserve deposits, then the reserve requirement ratio is 15%
Deposit and lending rates is the interest rate that the bank refers to the deposits in the bank and the bank loans
These two things are adjustments to monetary policy. The adjustment of the two things is the monetary policy, that is, the means of controlling the circulation of money in the market, to provide the deposit reserve ratio, means that the bank loanable funds to reduce, reduce the money supply, increase the deposit and lending rates, means that deposits are more cost-effective, loans are more expensive, then it will attract people to save money, reduce the loan, but also reduce the money supply
If it is to increase the interest rate, the cost of borrowing and lending increased, so Comparatively speaking, only raising the reserve requirement ratio is a moderate approach
Zheng Jianxin, deputy director of the Tax Administration Department of the Ministry of Finance, said on Dec. 9 that the launch of the value-added tax (VAT) reform on Jan. 1 next year will reduce the burden of Chinese taxpayers by more than 123 billion yuan.
Cheng said the global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis has been rapidly extending to all countries and fields around the world, and our country has been y affected by it because a large portion of our economy depends on exports, so our government and relevant departments are actively trying to find ways to see how to take measures to quickly eliminate these effects.
Zheng Jianxin said, in this environment, we are also ready to January 1 next year to the value-added tax transition launched, before we are production-based value-added tax, is the enterprise purchased machinery and equipment contained in the value-added tax is not allowed to deduct, and the realization of this reform after the enterprise purchased equipment contained in the value-added tax can be deducted. After the realization of this reform, the VAT on equipment purchased by enterprises can be deducted. We have roughly calculated that the burden of taxpayers can be reduced by more than 123 billion RMB nationwide. This reform can eliminate the factor of double taxation decided by the current production-oriented VAT system, reduce the tax burden of enterprise equipment investment, encourage investment and expand domestic demand, promote the technological progress of enterprises, industrial structure adjustment and transformation of economic growth mode, and play a very good role in enhancing the strength of enterprise development, improving the competitiveness of enterprises and their ability to resist risks, and overcoming the adverse effects of the current financial crisis. A very good role.
In the face of the severe economic situation under the global financial winter, the RMB exchange rate will neither rise nor depreciate significantly. It is the best choice to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable