Middle East uncertainties: Despite the turnaround in the Israeli-Palestinian situation since January 2005, the situation still needs to be cautiously observed, especially since July 2005, on the eve of Israel's intensive push to implement the "unilateral plan of action", the situation of Israeli-Palestinian renewed tensions. The political reconstruction of Iraq continues to progress, but the security situation in Iraq is poor. Under the high-handed policy of the United States, Iran and Syria once came to the forefront of the conflict with the United States, and the development of their relations is still subject to uncertainties. The hot spots in the Middle East will continue to exist for a long time and continue to affect the situation in the region and the world.
(a) Iran's nuclear issue is slowing down at times, and is now becoming tense.
(2) Iraq is still quite stable, but the security situation is very serious.
(3) The Arab-Israeli conflict has been protracted, and the Palestinian-Israeli dispute has been dragging on for a long time.
(iv) Terrorist and religious extremist activities continue to develop.
(v) Territorial disputes and disputes over water resources are complicated.
Reasons for the world's attention to the Middle East:
(i) Religious disputes in the region are intricate.
(2) The Middle East is an important geographic location, known as "the land of the five seas and three continents".
(c) The Middle East is extremely rich in petroleum resources, and is known as the "world's oil depot" and "oil ocean".
(d) Colonialism, imperialism and superpowers have led to chaos in the Middle East.
(e) The political systems of various countries are complex and diverse, the development of modern political systems is incomplete, and the economic and social development is unbalanced.
(f), the region is more common water disputes, some scholars call "water wars.
The situation in the Middle East and its impact: In the 1990s, an important thing happened in Egypt. With the support of the International Monetary Fund and a large amount of U.S. aid in the form of U.S. dollars, Egypt embarked on economic reforms in an attempt to change the more Soviet-type planned economic system that Nasser had established, and to go down the road of privatization and marketization.
To be fair, these reforms still had a good effect on Egypt's economy. One of the main changes is that hyperinflation has been curbed, from almost 25% hyperinflation before, to a little under 10%, and for a large part of the time, it was still around 5%. Economic growth also got to a level of 5-7%.
But one of the reforms led by financiers like Mubarak Jr. relied on throwing away the government's original baggage. The most important of these were two major categories of subsidies, one for energy and one for food. This one led to the destabilization of the government's own system.
The other problem is that the main reliance is on foreign funding, which has led to Egypt's high external debt.
Both of these factors, prior to 2008, were not a burning issue due to the overall international environment. Because there was so much money available overseas, it was simply inexhaustible. And because China's cheap consumer goods swept the world and fed many of Egypt's poor, too.
But as soon as food prices on the international market moved, Egypt's domestic inflation immediately became a trigger.
Rare earth industry, the 12th Five-Year Prospect is bright
Institutional capital flow back 5 billion yuan to fight for 4 industries News publishing industry will be 60 billion financing support "new three boards" reform speed robots benefited from "communications high-speed rail" to meet the benefits of 4 types of companies The play [microblogging] Xu Xiaoyu: how to grasp the annual report market [stock bar] mention quasi-exposure of the real intentions of the main force [and Xun know] how to speculate on the stock can be a steady income not to lose The Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor? Lieberman said on the 16th that two Iranian warships will sail through the Suez Canal and enter the Mediterranean Sea. Iranian media reports said the two warships will carry out anti-piracy escort mission to protect the safety of Iranian cargo ships and oil tankers. Lieberman did not say how Israel obtained the information, but he called the Iranian move "a provocation.
Meanwhile, protests and demonstrations continue to fester in other countries in the Middle East. These include OPEC members like Libya, where protests in Bahrain entered their third day. Also according to foreign media reports, the conflict in Yemen has caused casualties.
London crude breaks through $104
A new report by JPMorgan Chase pointed out that the unstable situation in oil-producing regions such as the Middle East poses a higher risk to the oil market, and such risks are still increasing.
Taking the Suez Canal as an example, the canal is now a major international shipping channel connecting Europe, Asia and Africa, connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, and is an important global oil transportation hub. Once the Suez Canal is not functioning well, it will greatly increase the cost of crude oil transportation and push up oil prices.
Some analysts have pointed out that although Bahrain and other countries are not major crude oil producers, they are close to major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, and once the situation in these countries further deteriorates, the negative impact on neighboring oil-producing countries cannot be ruled out.
Being stimulated by the situation in the Middle East and other factors, international oil prices on Wednesday rose sharply, of which, the London oil prices again hit a rebound high. 17 London plate, April Brent crude oil futures hovering above $104. The day before the London close, the contract jumped 2.14 U.S. dollars, at 103.78 U.S. dollars, since the end of September 2008 since the end of a new high. WTI crude futures in New York, which have been heavily discounted recently, also rose 0.8 percent to a two-week high of $84.99 on Wednesday.
However, oil prices retreated later on the 17th. This came after local media, citing anonymous sources, reported that the operator of the Suez Canal had been notified that the scheduled passage of two Iranian warships through the canal had been canceled.
Gold prices rose for four consecutive days
Also affected by the situation in the Middle East is gold. International gold prices rose for the third consecutive day on the 16th, reaching $1,375. During Thursday's session, gold prices continued to rise, reaching $1,380 at one point.
At the same time, the situation in the Middle East also affects the regional and even global financial markets. Because of the fear of conflict between Iran and Israel, U.S. stocks on the 16th at noon once sharply appeared to fall, only in more favorable data to promote the re-emergence of higher. And in the Middle East locally, because of the political situation dragged into chaos in Egypt's financial markets continue to shut down this week.
Three, the "greater Middle East" situation will develop in which direction?
(1) The key to the many problems in the Middle East is the Arab-Israeli conflict (the Middle East problem), which will be difficult to resolve completely in the short term. The Middle East problem includes two elements: the Palestinian question and the dispute between Israel and the Arab countries, with the Palestinian question at its core. Although the Middle East peace process has achieved some important results since 1991, the most difficult and crucial issues, such as the final status of Jerusalem, the refugee issue, the border issue, the Jewish settlements issue and the water resources issue, are far from being resolved. Coupled with the serious conflict that has lasted for more than four years since September 2000, it is foreseeable that, despite the current preliminary ceasefire between Palestine and Israel, it will be difficult to make substantive progress in the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks in the short term. The policies of the United States Government, the instability of the Israeli Government, the degree of coordination within the Palestinian side and many other issues will be important factors affecting the peace talks, as illustrated once again by the renewed instability of the Palestinian-Israeli situation in July 2005. Historical experience shows that even if some agreement is reached, the implementation of the agreement is still full of obstacles.
(ii) The United States, Russia, Britain, France, Germany, Japan, India and other world superpowers will continue to compete in the region. Despite the efforts of the rest of the world's major powers to show influence, the U.S. influence is difficult to be replaced. In the past few years of Bush's administration, he has changed the Clinton era's policy of "promoting peace talks in the west and curbing Iran and Iraq in the east" to a policy of promoting "counter-terrorism" and "democracy and freedom" in parallel. "The new term of Bush will begin with the transformation of values. Bush's new term of office will start from reforming values and reshaping geopolitics to comprehensively promote the strategy of the Greater Middle East. On the basis of stabilizing the situation in Iraq and promoting the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, the United States will make comprehensive use of unilateral and multilateral, diplomatic and military means to remove anti-U.S. regimes, promote Western values, and realize its overall domination of the Greater Middle East. As the United States is in a strategically advantageous position, its "Greater Middle East Democracy Program" will make some progress, but the program's "goals" are too large and are being blocked by many parties, so it is expected that it will be difficult to achieve overall results in a long time.
(3) The inherent complexity and long-term nature of religious issues make it impossible to resolve them in a short period of time. Religious culture has a relatively strong stability and long-term, most of the conflicts in the Middle East region has a long history, some hotspots not only will not be weakened, but also may intensify. It is not realistic, or even a remote design, to promote "democracy and freedom" and achieve complete religious integration within a few years. The hotspot issues related to religion and culture will continue to affect the regional situation for a long time to come, especially the so-called "clash of civilizations" theory that the United States has anachronistically and unjustifiably thrown out and implemented to a certain extent, which will lead to long-term civilizational antagonism and military confrontation between the United States and the countries in the region. Under the continued high pressure and impact of the Middle East policies of the major powers, especially the United States, the Middle East region will face a huge transformation, and the transition period will be full of turbulence and uncertainties that will continue to affect the world situation.
North Africa: North Africa is the northern part of the African continent, customarily the vast region north of the Sahara Desert. It covers an area of 8.37 million square kilometers. The population is 150 million (1991), more than 70% of which are Arabs. Arab culture and Islam are important human characteristics of North Africa. Mineral deposits include petroleum, phosphates and natural gas. Agricultural products include cotton, gum arabic, pegs, olives, figs, dates, and so on. Camels are produced. Even if we look at the natural and human characteristics of North Africa, the similarity of the West Asian region is almost the same. For the convenience of research work, people sometimes put it and West Asia together. The most representative country of North Africa is Egypt, the capital of which is Cairo. It is called the Star of the Desert because it is the representative of the desert.
North Africa's unstable situation induced a new pattern of the market
Recently, Libya as the representative of the Middle East and North Africa region of the turbulent situation not only touches the world's attention, but also to the global oil market and the economy of the countries caused by the huge turmoil. In view of the oil "pull one hair affects the whole body" impact, this "political crisis" may turn into "oil crisis". The recent turmoil in the Arab region, reflecting the phantom of geopolitical and energy strategy game.
One, the European Union interests bear the brunt
First of all, the European Union is the main investor in Libya's oil economy. 2010 Libya's production was 1.6 million barrels per day, of which 72% of the production is mainly concentrated in the hands of overseas oil companies led by Italy's Eni Group, Germany's Wintershall Oil Company and France's Total Company. The turbulent situation has forced these overseas oil companies to evacuate their personnel and stop all or part of their production, and they are suffering huge losses. China, on the other hand, is mainly engaged in construction projects in Libya, with less direct investment, and has suffered limited losses.
Secondly, the continued turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa is bound to push up oil prices, easily triggering global inflation, and the EU economy may be the first to fall in the global inflation wave. As the U.S. has high strategic crude oil reserves, the U.K. has Brent oil fields, and China has huge foreign exchange reserves, so if international oil prices continue to rise, the EU economy, which is plagued by the debt crisis and the beginnings of inflation, will suffer a major blow.
Lastly, the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa will force refugees to flood into neighboring European countries, which will have a certain impact on the local economy and social stability.
Second, the United States holds the initiative
North Africa's Tunisia and Egypt took the lead in the outbreak of unrest, of course, has its own deep social and political roots, and the direct fuse is indeed the country's high inflation. Looking around the world, only the world's largest agricultural production reserve country - the United States, has the strength to manipulate international food prices.
On the one hand, as early as Bush's term, the United States launched the corn ethanol gasoline alternative oil program, in the United States to reduce the degree of oil dependence on foreign countries at the same time, but also pushed up the price of international food; on the other hand, the Obama government came to power, the United States to further liberalize the exploitation of domestic offshore oil. Thus, by December 2010, the United States actually from a in oil importers into net exporters.
That is to say, oil prices continue to climb higher, the impact on the United States is not great. And the United States may be in the "oil crisis" in the outside, holding the strategic initiative, and strive for regional turbulence in the intake of the greatest benefits: First, the use of imported inflation, clamping down on the development of China and the EU economy; Second, through the turbulence so that the Arab countries can not protect themselves, so as to lift the attack on Iran's worries; Third, the use of the turbulence, and continue to increase the discourse in the Middle East and North Africa, for the United States to get more oil! interests.
Three, all parties under the game, the situation is still unclear
Oil prices continue to rise, must not be in line with the fundamental interests of the European Union economy behind bars. Therefore, the EU strongly urged Libyan President Gaddafi not to use force to suppress the people, in order to avoid the use of force to suppress Libya into a civil war, further deterioration of the situation, pushing up oil prices. Meanwhile, China's dependence on foreign oil has increased to 53% in 2010, and Middle East oil accounts for about half of its oil imports. If the unrest continues, there will be a shortage of oil in China and prices will soar, leading to continued high inflation and restricting rapid economic development, so China is closely monitoring the latest developments in the situation. Although the rise in oil prices is to some extent in line with U.S. global strategic interests, it is not the U.S.'s wish to see Libya become a breeding ground for terrorism due to the turmoil. In addition, the excessive weakening of other Arab countries, but rather Iran and thus benefit.
Currently, the unrest continues to spread, and has made the world's leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia's domestic is not calm. If there is a major upheaval in Saudi Arabia, it will be a matter of time before the international oil price breaks through the record high of $147 per barrel. This will be a fatal blow to the world economy.
Four, over-expectation analysis - North Africa and the Middle East situation, international oil prices, the internationalization of the yuan, the U.S. Treasury bonds
Recently, the Middle East, North Africa, the situation is unstable and lead to the rise of the international oil, has caused a high degree of concern in the market, the Middle East, the situation in the North Africa how the evolution of the impact of oil is greater, but which the uncertainty of the factors are larger, wait and see the mainstream point of view of the attitude. Guangzhou Bandung Network believes that the situation in North Africa and the Middle East is unstable, there are economic, religious and other aspects of the domestic factors, it is difficult to resolve in the short term. From the perspective of foreign factors, in North Africa, the Middle East situation has a strong right to speak of the United States, in this process, although facing some challenges, but the overall situation is the beneficiary of the current situation. Therefore, in the short term, North Africa, the Middle East, the unstable situation will maintain the market on rising oil prices, inflationary pressures, and this expectation will make the market under pressure in the short term. But in the medium and long term, the domestic top management will likely take effective measures to form a counterbalance with the United States in order to change the passive position in oil. For example, the use of huge foreign exchange reserves and U.S. Treasury bonds to gain a greater say; timely promotion of the internationalization of the yuan, to enhance the status of the yuan in the international reserve currency, to change the pattern of U.S. dollar dominance. If the latter to get more than expected to promote, such as Hong Kong RMB IPO, for A shares will have a positive impact, at least change the AH stock price inversion of the valuation correction problem.
The impact of Middle East and North Africa unrest on oil supply
Since December 2010, the political situation in some Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa has been in obvious turmoil, and the international crude oil price has hit a two-year high. According to the comparative analysis of previous oil supply shocks in the Middle East or North Africa, combined with the judgment of the current economic fundamentals, the authors believe that this round of localized unrest in the Middle East and North Africa has a limited impact on global crude oil production and economic growth, and that oil prices will fluctuate significantly in the short term, but the likelihood of a sustained and rapid increase is unlikely. However, with the continued recovery of the economies of developed countries such as the United States and the rapid growth of the economies of emerging market countries, the likelihood that international oil prices will continue to climb slowly in the medium and long term has increased.
A, the current situation in the Middle East and North Africa unrest on the global crude oil supply direct impact is limited
First of all, the situation is very obvious unrest in the country's oil production and reserves accounted for the world's total share of the relatively small, the other oil-producing countries or regions to make use of the idle production capacity can quickly fill the decline in output.
Second, the current level of global crude oil inventories is still high.
Third, Egypt's regime transition has been relatively smooth, and important energy corridors remain open.
Second, the Middle East political crisis and military conflict on the world crude oil supply and price of the impact of the gradual weakening
From the historical experience, since the 1970s, the Middle East and North Africa region, five relatively large political crisis or military conflict, the world's oil supply has had a relatively significant impact. These five crises were: the 1973 OPEC Organization oil embargo, the 1978-1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, the 1980-1981 Iran-Iraq war and the two Gulf wars of 1990 and 2003. During the crises, the share of world oil production in the region or country directly hit all declined significantly, by roughly 3.5-8.8 percent. Analyzing the above five crises can provide a reference scenario that can help to quantitatively assess the extent and persistence of the impact of the latest crisis on oil supply and oil prices. Comparing the above five crises, it can be seen that the degree and persistence of their impacts mainly show the following three trends:
l. The degree of impact of the changes in oil supply in the MENA region on the world's crude oil production has weakened, and the duration of the impacts has been gradually shortened.
2. In the short term, oil supply shocks can lead to more pronounced fluctuations in world oil prices, but the persistence of the impact is gradually weakening.
3. The overall impact of oil supply shocks on economic growth is gradually diminishing.
As of the end of February 2011, the share of oil production in countries or regions where the situation in the Middle East and North Africa is obviously unstable is 6.8% of the world's total production, of which Libya, which is more affected by the impact, has already reduced its production by 800,000-900,000 barrels per day, and the share of the reduction in the global total production is less than 1%. On the whole, the impact of this round of crisis on global oil production has been lighter than that of the past five crises. Taking into account the situation in Saudi Arabia, Iran is relatively stable, according to the past experience of several crises in the Middle East or North Africa, the comprehensive judgment of global oil production is expected to be able to fill the gap in about three months, the possibility of sustained and rapid climb in international crude oil prices is not likely.
Three, in the medium and long term the possibility of international oil prices continue to climb slowly increased
One is China and other emerging market countries to maintain rapid economic growth.
The second is that the developed economies, especially the United States of America's gradual economic recovery, continue to maintain loose monetary policy may fuel inflationary expectations and push up the price of crude oil. The current level of economic growth in the U.S. is close to the level before the crisis.
Third, oil has the dual attributes of resources and finance, and its price fluctuations will inevitably be affected by international speculative funds