First, economic operation began to return to the normal growth track.
Since the beginning of this year, the growth of domestic demand has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, the driving force of investment growth has been replaced by the market, consumption growth has remained strong, exports have resumed rapid growth, price increases have stabilized, and the risk of asset price bubbles has been reduced.
Compared with the initial response to the financial crisis, the dynamic structure of economic growth has undergone positive changes this year, forming a good pattern of market-driven investment, consumption and export * * * driving economic growth. At the same time, the price increase shows signs of stabilization, the risk of asset bubble is reduced, and the economic operation has made important progress from the special state of coping with the crisis to the normal growth track.
(A) the growth of domestic demand has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven
Investment growth momentum to achieve market replacement. In 2009, China's economy was able to quickly reverse the downward trend of growth rate, mainly due to the economic stimulus package. Among them, the rapid expansion of government-led investment has played a key role. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the growth of government-led investment has gradually declined, and market-driven investment has become the main driving force for growth. In the fixed assets investment from June to August this year, the government budget funds and state-owned enterprise investment only increased by 1 1.5% and 20.33%, compared with 82.7% and 49.72% in the same period last year. The investment of non-state-owned enterprises in domestic enterprises increased by 29.63%, only slightly lower than the same period last year (30.5%); Investment in real estate development mainly driven by the market increased by 36.7%, much higher than the growth rate of 12.5% in the same period last year. In the first eight months, investment in fixed assets increased by 24.8%, mainly due to the rapid growth of real estate development investment and private investment.
Consumption growth is still strong. In the process of coping with the crisis, many policies implemented by our government to stimulate consumption have achieved remarkable results. Driven by consumption hotspots such as automobiles, household appliances, furniture and tourism, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2009 increased by 16.9% after deducting the retail price factor, reaching the highest level in history. Since the beginning of this year, the intensity and effect of policy stimulus have weakened. The growth rate of financial expenditure on people's livelihood, such as social security, employment, medical care and health care, dropped significantly year-on-year, and the actual growth of consumption declined, but the motivation of residents' independent consumption remained strong. Since February, the actual growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods has stabilized at a relatively high level of 15.2%.
(2) Exports resumed rapid growth, and their global share further increased.
Driven by the recovery of the world economy and the rapid growth of external demand, China's export growth exceeded expectations this year. After February, the monthly export volume reached $65.438+065.438+000 billion, and the cumulative export volume in the first eight months was $989.7 billion, up 35.45% year-on-year, higher than the $50.4 billion in the same period in 2008 before the financial crisis. China's exports account for an increasing proportion in the world. In 2008, China's exports accounted for 8.9%. In 2009, exports were severely hit, but the decline was lower than the global average, and the proportion did not fall but rose, reaching 9.7%. It is expected to exceed 10% this year, which is close to the peak share of Germany and Japan in global exports.
China's exports have resumed rapid growth, and the proportion of exports in the world has further increased. The main reasons are as follows: First, emerging economies and developing countries, which account for more than 50% of China's export market, are less affected by the financial crisis, and their economies recover faster, and their import growth rate is higher than that of developed economies; Second, the competitiveness of private enterprises in the international market has improved significantly. Since the beginning of this year, the export growth rate of other enterprises, mainly private enterprises, has been significantly higher than that of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises; Thirdly, the China government has adopted various policies and measures, such as increasing export tax rebate rate, increasing export credit and providing financial support for export enterprises, which has alleviated the impact of the financial crisis on the production capacity of export-oriented enterprises. Most enterprises recovered quickly, and some orders were transferred to China.
(3) The price increase has stabilized and the risk of asset price bubbles has decreased.
Affected by special weather such as late spring cold and floods, and the price increase of agricultural products in the international market (00006 1), the consumer price fluctuated and rose in the first eight months, reaching 3.5% in August, but it has shown signs of stabilization. Internationally, the process of world economic recovery has slowed down, commodity prices are at a relatively low level, and the pressure of imported inflation has eased. Domestically, this year's grain output is slightly lower than last year, but it has sufficient reserves and strong control ability. The prices of some agricultural products are close to or higher than the international market, and it is unlikely that food prices will rise sharply. Since June, pork prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the pig-grain ratio has reached a breakeven point. Although pork prices are bullish in the fourth quarter, the pull on consumer prices should not exceed the reduction in price increases.
The effect of real estate market control measures has initially appeared, and the situation of excessive housing price rise has been curbed. At present, the transaction volume and house prices in some cities have rebounded to a certain extent. However, since May, the sales area of commercial housing in China has continued to grow negatively year-on-year, some developers have tightened their capital chains and their inventories have increased substantially. It is expected that the house price level may be loosened around the end of the year, and there will be a certain degree of correction. In addition, money and credit return to the moderate growth range, the pace of credit supply is relatively uniform, economic overheating and inflation expectations are reduced, and the risk of asset price bubbles is reduced.
Generally speaking, since the beginning of this year, the driving force of domestic demand growth has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and exports have resumed rapid growth, indicating that China's economic operation has successfully shaken off the negative impact of the international financial crisis and started to enter the conventional growth track. The high growth rate callback has inherent requirements and is also affected by the active adjustment of policies. In view of the downward growth of real estate investment, it will drive the overall investment growth to a certain extent; The export growth rate has been affected by the slow recovery of major economies in the world and has been declining month by month since May. In the third and fourth quarters, China's economic growth will show a slight quarterly correction. It is estimated that the annual economic growth will be around 10%.
2.20 1 1, economic growth will stabilize and rebound, and inflationary pressure will tend to increase.
□20 1 1 The global economy will continue to recover moderately, China's exports will maintain rapid growth, the actual growth of consumption will decline steadily, the driving force of investment growth will remain strong, inflationary pressure will increase in the second half of the year, and the GDP growth rate in each quarter will also show a trend of low before and then high.
According to the monitoring index of macroeconomic prosperity of the State Council Development Research Center, although some indicators reversed slightly in August, the macroeconomic leading index and synchronous index are still declining, and the economic operation will continue the short-term downward trend. At the same time, the leading diffusion index rose for four consecutive months, the decline of the leading index narrowed, and the signs of bottoming became more obvious. According to historical experience and global economic trends, the bottom of this round of short-term adjustment is expected to appear in the first quarter of 20 1 1. While economic growth is stabilizing and rebounding, inflationary pressure tends to increase.
(1) The global economy continues to recover moderately, and China's exports will maintain rapid growth.
From the third quarter of last year to the first half of this year, the United States, Europe, Japan and other economies have achieved positive growth for four consecutive quarters. According to the definition of traditional economics, the economic recession in developed economies has ended and entered a state of recovery. However, in most developed countries, the recovery of the real economy is slow, the unemployment rate remains high, consumer confidence is insufficient, and the real estate market continues to be sluggish. It takes time to fully absorb the impact of the crisis. After the Greek sovereign debt crisis, some European countries began to cut civil servants' salaries and government welfare expenditures to reduce fiscal deficits and resolve debt risks. In addition, the intensity and effect of stimulus policies have obviously weakened, and the economic growth of developed economies is still likely to be repeated. According to the general characteristics of economic recovery in various countries after the major crisis, combined with the recent performance and policy orientation of economic indicators such as the United States, Europe and Japan, it is comprehensively judged that 20 1 1 developed economies will maintain a moderate recovery state, and there is little possibility of a double dip or rapid growth. Since the beginning of this year, economic and trade cooperation between emerging economies has been strengthened, and their dependence on developed economies has declined. The momentum of economic recovery is obviously better than that of developed economies. It is expected that emerging economies will maintain steady and rapid development in the second half of this year and next year.
Generally speaking, the external environment of China's economic development in 20 1 1 year was slightly better than this year. With the moderate recovery of the global economy, the import growth rate of China's major trading partners will gradually stop falling and stabilize after May this year. It is estimated that the import growth rate will remain at around 1 1. It is worth noting that the trade friction between China and developed countries is increasing, and the appreciation pressure will not decrease after the RMB exchange rate flexibility mechanism is restarted, which will have an impact on export growth to a certain extent. At the same time, the export growth in 20 10 reached about 30%, which was realized when the base was low in the previous year. It is predicted that the export growth rate of China will decline to some extent in 20 1 1 year. The monthly export growth rate is low and then high, and the annual export growth rate is 15%-20%.
(2) The actual consumption growth has declined steadily, and the driving force for investment growth remains strong.
Since 2003, the real income of Chinese residents has maintained a relatively high growth, the pace of upgrading the consumption structure has accelerated, the financial expenditures for people's livelihood such as education, social security, employment, medical and health care have expanded rapidly, consumption expectations have improved, and the real growth of consumption (nominal growth of total retail sales of social consumer goods minus retail price factors) has reached a high level. Since the second half of 2009, the real income growth rate of urban and rural residents has been adjusted back, the effect of consumption stimulus policy has weakened, the growth rate of people's livelihood fiscal expenditure has slowed down, and the real growth rate of consumption has also begun to decline. In the first half of this year, the income of urban residents only increased by 7.5%, which will form a hard constraint on the consumption growth of urban residents in the second half and next year. The growth of people's livelihood fiscal expenditure has accelerated since May, but it is still significantly lower than the average level since 2007. Affected by this, the actual growth rate of consumption will decline steadily after the third quarter of this year. It is estimated that the actual growth rate of consumption of 20 1 1 will be slightly lower than this year.
Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of investment has declined, but the decline rate is not large, and it will still reach about 24% for the whole year. 20 1 1 The actual growth level of export and consumption may be reduced, but it is still at a normal and reasonable level, which provides a certain demand base for the growth of manufacturing investment. At the same time, 20 1 1 is the first year of China's "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", and major planning projects in various places have started one after another, especially in the central and western regions, which will form an important support for the growth of infrastructure investment. 20 1 1 The biggest uncertain factor affecting investment growth is real estate investment. With the gradual implementation of the real estate market control measures, the investment demand has dropped significantly, and the tendency of excessive housing price rise and asset bubble has been effectively curbed, which is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the real estate market. However, the continuous negative growth of real estate transaction volume means that developers get less funds from market sales, which will have a certain negative impact on real estate development investment. Cracking down on land hoarding by real estate development enterprises and strictly controlling the opening and completion time will stimulate real estate development enterprises to speed up their development progress. The increase in the construction of affordable housing will also partially compensate for the negative impact of the shrinking scale of real estate development investment on the growth of real estate investment. On the whole, the growth of 20 1 1 real estate investment will decline, but there will be no deep decline. It is estimated that the annual investment growth in 201/kloc-0 will show a trend of low before and then high, and the annual investment growth will reach more than 20%.
(C) inflationary pressures tend to increase
After reaching a high point this year, the price increase will stabilize and fall back. 20 1 1 year, the factors that inhibit and promote the price increase exist at the same time, and there is great uncertainty in the price trend. From the factors that restrain the price increase: the actual growth rate of consumption is adjusted back, the money supply returns to the moderate growth range, and the demand-driven factors tend to weaken; This year, the prices of grain, vegetables and fruits have increased greatly, and the prices of some agricultural products have been higher than the international market. There is little room for another sharp rise next year. The pressure of RMB appreciation will increase in the future, which will alleviate the pressure of imported inflation to some extent.
The main factors driving the price increase are: First, the digestion of a large amount of liquidity accumulated in the early stage still needs a process; Second, at present, the price of meat and egg products has shown a recovery increase, and it is likely to continue to rise next year, which has become the main driving force for food price increases; Third, domestic speculative funds have been involved in the speculation of some agricultural and sideline products, which will promote the price of some agricultural and sideline products to rise sharply; Third, the wage increase will be gradually transmitted from the manufacturing industry to the service industry, as well as the price reform of resource products, and the pressure of cost-driven price increase will increase; Fourth, the global economy is recovering moderately, and the exchange rates of major currencies such as the US dollar may depreciate, pushing the prices of primary products in the international market to rise again. The imported inflation factor cannot be ignored. Generally speaking, there are many factors that push the price increase of 20 1 1, especially after the first quarter, the pressure of price increase may increase.
Based on the above analysis, in 20 1 1 year, the actual growth rates of export, investment and consumption all declined to varying degrees, and the annual economic growth will be slightly lower than this year. Judging from the growth trend of export and investment, the GDP growth rate in each quarter of 201/kloc-0 will also show a trend of low before and then high. It is estimated that the annual economic growth will be maintained at around 9% in 20 1 1, and the inflationary pressure will increase in the second half of the year, and the annual price increase is expected to be controlled within 4%.
Third, macroeconomic policies remained stable and reforms in related fields were actively promoted.
□20 1 1 Re-understand the relationship between economic growth and employment, accelerate the pace of price reform, promote the reform of income distribution system, accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism for energy conservation and emission reduction, reform and improve the examination and approval system for investment projects, and establish a long-term healthy and stable development mechanism for the real estate market.
20 1 1 is the first year of the 12th Five-Year Plan. After the economic operation basically returns to the normal growth track, the task of promoting economic restructuring and the transformation of development mode is very arduous. In the case of important changes in the relationship between economic growth and employment, the pressure of macroeconomic policies to ensure employment and growth will be alleviated. Therefore, 20 1 1 fiscal and monetary policies should gradually realize a smooth transition from crisis-oriented to conventional, and remain relatively stable, and put more energy into accelerating reforms in related fields, and strive to make substantial progress in economic restructuring and transformation of development mode.
(A new understanding of the relationship between economic growth and employment
After more than 30 years of sustained and rapid development, the "fundamentals" of China's economic operation are changing. From the perspective of economic growth momentum, the shift from over-reliance on exports and investment to more dependence on consumption expansion, from the rapid expansion of industrial manufacturing to more dependence on the development of service industry will inevitably have an impact on economic growth rate, and the gradual decline of potential growth rate is inevitable. Judging from the pattern of labor supply and demand, in recent years, the average annual growth of urban employment is close to 4%, and the newly created jobs are roughly equivalent to the supply of urban and rural labor, and the pressure of labor supply exceeding demand has been obviously alleviated. The above changes mean important changes in the relationship between economic growth and employment. The pressure of macroeconomic policies to ensure employment and growth will be alleviated. While maintaining the necessary growth rate, policy objectives should pay more attention to adjusting and optimizing the economic structure and improving the quality of economic growth. Actively respond to the new situation and new problems brought about by the slowdown in growth and the continuous increase in labor costs, and strive to cultivate and improve the profitability and level of enterprises.
(2) Accelerate the pace of price reform and rely on market mechanisms to promote economic restructuring.
The price distortion of resources and factors fails to fully reflect the scarcity degree and the relationship between market supply and demand, which has become a major obstacle to the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of development mode. We should seize the opportunity to promote the reform of interest rates, exchange rates and prices of resource products. At present, the real deposit interest rate in China is negative, and the spread between deposit and loan is large. It is generally difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to raise the deposit interest rate moderately, actively promote the marketization of deposit interest rate and expand the floating range of loan interest rate. On the basis of further strengthening differentiated export tax rebates and export tariffs, we can appropriately expand the floating range of RMB exchange rate and give more play to the comprehensive adjustment role of exchange rate in optimizing and adjusting export structure. Further rationalize the price of coal and electricity, improve the price formation mechanism of natural gas and refined oil, and gradually increase the price of non-agricultural water.
(3) Promoting the reform of the income distribution system and actively expanding consumption.
Promoting the reform of national income distribution system and raising the income level of low-income groups is an effective way to expand consumption. Optional policies include: conscientiously implementing the labor contract law, earnestly safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of workers, and reasonably raising the minimum wage standard; Promote rural land circulation, promote the innovation of homestead circulation and replacement methods, and let farmers share the land value-added income reasonably; Actively promote the pilot project of property tax collection, and increase the tax adjustment of the stock property of high-income groups; Increase the proportion of government public service expenditure and people's livelihood transfer payment expenditure in the total government expenditure, shift the focus of government expenditure to providing public products and services to all citizens, and improve the income level of low-income groups.
(4) Accelerate the establishment of a long-term mechanism for energy conservation and emission reduction.
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, important achievements have been made in energy conservation and emission reduction, and a mechanism for promoting energy conservation and emission reduction has initially formed, but it needs to be further improved. Some recent situations show that the dependence of energy conservation and emission reduction on administrative management is still too high, and relying on administrative orders and implementing a "one size fits all" management method to control energy consumption has produced certain negative effects, which is difficult to sustain and easily restricts the development of some fields. Based on the market, according to the differences of resource conditions, industrial structure and development stages in different regions, we will allocate indicators more fairly and reasonably, actively explore the realization mechanism conducive to structural optimization, technological progress, resource consumption and pollution reduction, and continuously consolidate and improve the effectiveness of energy conservation and emission reduction. We can refer to the energy consumption and emission standards of different industries in the world, and gradually establish an energy-saving and emission-reduction system in China to encourage advanced and eliminate backward industries; Change the method of relying on administrative means and actively create conditions to carry out pilot projects of emission trading.
(5) Reform and improve the examination and approval system for investment projects.
Reasonably divide the investment approval authority of the central and local governments, and attach importance to the supervision function of local governments on local projects. The government's management of investment projects should focus on reviewing the access conditions such as environmental protection, energy consumption, safety and quality standards, and implement two-way supervision (the project is not up to standard, and the government supervises the project; Has reached the standard without approval, enterprise supervision government). Simply controlling the construction of new projects from the scale of industrial production capacity, protecting backward production capacity and inhibiting the role of market competition in dynamic optimization of production capacity should be changed. Formulate regulations on the approval and filing of enterprise investment projects.
(6) Establish a long-term healthy and stable development mechanism of the real estate market.
China has a large population and limited land resources for development and utilization. In the stage of rapid urbanization, there is upward pressure on housing prices, so it will be a long-term and arduous task to prevent the real estate market from foaming. On the one hand, policies and measures to curb speculative demand need to be long-term and institutionalized; On the other hand, it is necessary to establish a multi-level housing supply system for urban residents, especially to accelerate the construction of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of low-and middle-income groups. To speed up the construction of affordable housing, it is necessary for the government to directly increase financial input, and also to actively guide all kinds of social funds to participate in the construction of affordable housing through financial subsidies. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the system and mechanism for the distribution and use of affordable housing, and strictly put an end to illegal occupation and illegitimate income.