1982 the tragedy of the debt crisis in Latin American countries is now being repeated in Argentina. As the third largest economic entity in Latin America, Argentina has experienced eight currency crises since 1970. Since the beginning of 20001,the financial situation in Afghanistan has been deteriorating, and after several financial turmoil, the crisis finally broke out in July. Securities and stocks plummeted all the way, the national risk index reflecting a country's credit risk soared, a large amount of funds fled, and international reserves and bank reserves declined. At the same time, the government's financial situation has deteriorated extremely and is on the verge of collapse.
I. The course of the crisis
In July, 2006, 5438+0, Argentina's economy continued to decline, tax revenue declined, and the government's fiscal deficit remained high, which threatened to lose its ability to pay abroad. The long-simmering debt crisis is finally on the verge of breaking out. In just one week, the stock market fell sharply, the Melba index and the price of public debt hit record lows, and the national risk index once rose above 1600. In order to seek self-protection, domestic commercial banks have raised loan interest rates. In the past few days, commercial banks have actually stopped their credit business, and the exchange in Buenos Aires has basically stopped selling dollars. In August, Albania's foreign exchange reserves and bank deposits began to decline seriously, and the foreign exchange reserves fell from 30 billion dollars at the beginning of the year to less than 20 billion dollars. In just a few weeks after the crisis, Argentines have withdrawn about $8 billion from banks, accounting for 1 1% of Argentina's private deposits. ② 165438+ 10, the Argentine stock market plunged again, and the overnight lending rate of banks reached an astronomical figure of 250% ~ 300%. Affected by this, the national risk index of new york assessed by Morgan Bank once exceeded 2,500 points. 65438+February, Albania implemented emergency measures to restrict withdrawals and foreign exchange leaving the country, and the financial and commercial markets were basically paralyzed, and further reduced public expenditure and increased taxes. At the same time, the negotiations between the Afghan government and the IMF on a loan of $654.38+0.2 billion are deadlocked. Rumors about Albania's debt repayment difficulties and currency devaluation are everywhere, and bank deposits continue to drain. On June 3, 2002, Afghanistan failed to repay its debt of $28 million on time, and officially began to owe it 1.4 1 billion. 654381October 6th, the House and Senate of Albanian National Assembly passed the economic reform bill submitted by the new Albanian government, which gave a green light for abandoning the linked exchange rate system of 1 1 year and the devaluation of the peso. After that, with the authorization of Congress, Albania finally announced that it would abandon the currency exchange rate system 1: 1 linking the peso to the US dollar, and Abbiso depreciated by 40%. At present, the new government led by President Duhad is calling on the whole country to unite, actively cooperate with international economic organizations, seek foreign aid, and get rid of the doom of economic collapse as soon as possible. However, the economic and social situation facing the Afghan government is still not optimistic, and the implementation of new economic measures still faces severe challenges.
Second, the impact of the crisis.
Although the current Afghan debt crisis did not produce a domino effect as quickly as the Mexican debt crisis 1982.
It triggered an international economic crisis, but its impact was enormous.
First, the credit of the government and banks is minimized. At present, the government's foreign debt has reached $654.38+0322 billion, of which $94.6 billion is government debt and the rest is loans from international financial institutions. Moreover, the fiscal deficit remains high, approaching $5 billion 5438+0 in the first half of 2006. Due to repeatedly breaking through the fiscal deficit index stipulated by the International Monetary Fund, its loan negotiations with borrowing banks and the IMF are difficult. At the same time, Albania's central bank is facing a run crisis, and there are long queues for withdrawals in front of major banks, so the government has to implement financial supervision. Until now, it has ordered the freezing of personal deposits, and even dispatched police to search foreign banks to prevent a large amount of funds from fleeing.
Second, the bond market fluctuates greatly. Melba's stock index has been repeated several times, and the price of national debt has been falling all the way. The price of brady bonds listed in new york also suffered the same fate, and the interest rate of bank loans rose by a hundredfold. Third, it affects neighboring countries and creditor countries. Argentina's neighbors Brazil and Chile bear the brunt. Their currency hit a record low against the dollar. Although Brazil's central bank intervened in the market, its currency, the real, depreciated sharply. Albania abandoned the exchange rate of peso against the US dollar as 1: 1 and devalued the peso by 40%, which immediately caused a chain reaction in Paraguay and Uruguay. These two countries successively announced currency devaluation to reduce the competitive impact of Albanian goods after Abbiso's devaluation. At the same time, the new bond, currency and stock markets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa fell sharply, driven by the Polish zlo and the South African rand.
Finally, it triggered social unrest. After the debt crisis broke out in Albania, the Albanian government replaced several presidents and economic ministers, and its economic policies were adjusted many times.
Overall, but the effect is not great. The government has successively raised taxes, cut wages and subsidies for employees of public institutions, and frozen personal deposits.
Such extreme measures have met with strong resistance from the people, and riots have occurred from time to time.
B. Analysis and reflection on the financial crisis in Argentina
As we all know, an unprecedented financial crisis broke out in Argentina from 20065438+0 to 2002. Financial crisis, enterprise crisis, political crisis, social crisis and institutional crisis occurred simultaneously. In this regard, the Argentine government has taken a series of measures to get out of the crisis, making the GDP increase by more than 0.5% quarter by quarter, reaching 2.0% in the fourth quarter of 2002. It is estimated that the GDP will increase by 6% in 2003 and 5% in 2004. The financial current account has maintained a surplus since May 2002, and the revenue and expenditure have increased month by month.
Over the past year or so, the Argentine government has taken a series of policy measures to resolve the financial crisis: at the beginning of the financial crisis, it was forced to take two measures: First, it passed the Law on Public Emergency and Exchange Rate System Reform, giving the new president almost unlimited economic power to deal with the crisis. Freeze bank deposits and force dollar deposits to be pesoized at the exchange rate of 12 1.4. Second, by applying for assistance from the International Monetary Fund, we can "pay off debts" (that is, temporarily stop paying the principal and interest of foreign debts due), and finally negotiate debt restructuring with creditors of international financial institutions and other international institutions to obtain loan assistance to reduce and delay the debt repayment burden.
After the financial crisis, four measures were taken: First, under the negotiation requirements of the International Monetary Fund, a monetary policy goal of controlling currency issuance within 30% increment and inflation within 5% increment was determined before 2004, and then a stable floating exchange rate system was determined according to inflation expectations from 1 in 2004. The second is to restore people's confidence in banks. During the crisis, the number of banks in China was reduced from more than 90 to more than 50, and the income level of employees was also reduced by half. Measures such as freezing deposits and forcing pesoization are more harmful to depositors (peso deposits have depreciated by more than 2/3), and people are unwilling and afraid to deposit in banks. After the crisis, when the government issued a call to restore people's confidence in banks, people responded to the government's call, and their savings rebounded rapidly, reaching 64.72 million pesos in June 2003, an increase of 9.92 million pesos compared with the lowest 540,000 pesos in July 2002, with an average monthly increase of 1.7%. Third, encourage banks to increase loans to the private sector, fundamentally change the practice of requiring banks to increase loans to the public sector too much before the crisis, and promote economic recovery. Fourth, strictly restrict the remittance of US dollars and the import of commodities, encourage the export of agricultural products and attract foreign tourists to Afghanistan to increase the current account surplus. Fourth, while reforming the tax system and strengthening the collection and management, efforts should be made to control fiscal expenditure and achieve fiscal balance or surplus.
An analysis of the causes of Argentina's financial crisis
(1) The rigid currency board system seriously overestimated the value of local currency and weakened Albania's economic competitiveness. Wen Yunding chose the currency board system linked to the US dollar in 199 1, that is, the currency circulation is based on international reserves. Before 199 1, the fiscal deficit was often made up by issuing bank notes. Coupled with other factors, inflation has remained high for a long time, reaching 49% in 1989. 199 1 after adopting the currency board system, inflation was quickly controlled, and the price of consumer goods only increased by 3.9% in 1994. However, while paying attention to controlling inflation, we did not pay attention to the trend of the US dollar, which made the peso gradually overvalued, making imports cheaper and exports more expensive, and gradually weakened the international competitiveness of Argentina's economy. The current balance of payments has been in deficit for a long time, the international reserves are gradually decreasing, and the foundation for implementing the currency board system is weak.
(2) Financial supervision is too simplistic and administrative. A is a country that has fully liberalized its finance. Banks are not only privatized, but also controlled by foreign capital. Of the 65,438+00 private banks, 7 are wholly foreign-owned and 2 are controlled by foreign capital. Foreign capital controls nearly 70% of the total assets of commercial banks, and capital can also flow freely. Before the crisis, some factors leading to the crisis have changed quantitatively, and a large number of foreign capital fled. However, the government lacks a financial risk early warning system and financial supervision is weak, so it has not taken appropriate preventive measures. After the crisis, the government acted hastily and adopted some simplified and administrative measures, such as restricting residents' withdrawal of deposits, controlling capital flow, temporarily stopping payment of foreign debts due, greatly weakening wages and pensions, etc., which not only did not help solve the problem, but intensified contradictions and aggravated the crisis.
(3) The state financial expenditure is difficult to control, and the revenue and expenditure situation is gradually deteriorating. Argentina has a huge civil service, high wages, good welfare and high financial expenditure. Afghanistan has a population of 36 million, including 2 million civil servants. Before the 1990s, although the government made up the gap between revenue and expenditure by issuing currency, the economic foundation was still relatively good, and taxation was the main source of revenue for the government. After the implementation of the currency board system, the government quickly found a good and important alternative source of income, that is, in 1990- 1995, through the privatization of 123 state-owned enterprises, the government obtained184.5 billion US dollars. After 1996, this income dropped sharply. In order to re-elect Argentine President Menem for the third time, the central government's expenditure will not be reduced, but will continue to increase. Unwilling and difficult to control and restrain local governments, the fiscal revenue and expenditure situation at all levels has changed year by year, and it has to be continued by borrowing.
The heavy debt burden forced the government to "repay the debt". Governments at all levels borrowed a lot of foreign debts to make up the gap between public and public revenue and expenditure. The central government debt rose rapidly from $90 billion in196 to $20 billion1year, accounting for more than 40% of GDP. According to the internationally accepted warning line of 60%, this ratio is not high, but the main problem is that Argentina is a developing country and its debt structure is unreasonable. The repayment period of principal and interest is concentrated in 200 1-2004, and the high interest rate increases the debt burden. At the same time, local governments have more debts, because the Albanian Constitution stipulates that provincial governments can borrow on their own without the approval of the central government and only with the approval of provincial councils. In this way, Argentina's provinces directly borrow money from home and abroad and issue tokens (that is, quasi-currency issuance). When the chain of borrowing new debts to repay old debts broke and the debt crisis broke out, the Afghan government had to announce that it would temporarily stop paying due principal and interest. After the financial crisis, the central government took over the sovereign foreign debts of local governments in order to restructure debts and strengthen foreign debt management.
(e) The fragile financial and economic foundation cannot resist the influence of the external environment. In recent years, due to the economic downturn in Argentina, the import and export capacity has fallen sharply, the profitability of foreign-funded enterprises and banks in Argentina has declined, and the overvaluation of peso has made it more difficult to attract foreign investment. With the spread and impact of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, Argentina is inevitable.
(6) Domestic political instability is both a result and a cause. Since the Afghan military government implemented the strategy of "returning government to the people" in the early 1980s, political democratization has been developing continuously, and partisan disputes have become increasingly fierce, leading to the politicization of economic issues. Some economic policies that the ruling party wants to implement are greatly restricted and difficult to implement. Not only is the central government debt management out of control, but so is the local government debt management. Due to the accumulation of domestic problems, contradictions have also arisen at the top of the government. The simplification and administrative measures to deal with the crisis make people very dissatisfied with the government, which leads to frequent regime changes. /kloc-five presidents changed in 0/2 days, and the hot presidency became a hot potato for a time. The political crisis made the financial crisis more harmful.
Reflections on Argentina's financial crisis
(1) Financial stability is crucial to economic, social and political stability. In modern economic society, finance is alive and well, and finance is in a mess. The economic crisis, social unrest and regime change triggered by the financial crisis in Latin America strongly prove this point. In China, which accelerates and perfects the process of socialist market economy, finance plays an increasingly important role and becomes the core of modern economy. Maintaining financial stability is of great significance for ensuring the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy and successfully achieving the great goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way. Therefore, we should further raise awareness, remain vigilant, take precautions, treat both the symptoms and the root causes, and ensure the smooth and efficient operation of finance.
(B) to continuously enhance the competitiveness of the national economy is to achieve fiscal
An important foundation for stability. 1997 the southeast Asian financial crisis spread from southeast Asian countries in China to Russian and Latin America, and China was safe and sound. There are two main reasons: first, the foreign capital introduction strategy of paying equal attention to direct financing and indirect financing has been implemented, and the export-oriented economy has been vigorously developed, forming a strong foreign exchange reserve; Second, in the case of financial crisis and sluggish external demand in neighboring countries, the policy of expanding domestic demand was launched in time and received rapid results. Not only did it promote the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy by expanding domestic demand, but it also strengthened its physique and development potential by increasing infrastructure construction and increasing investment in technological transformation of enterprises.
(3) Effective management of government debt, especially sovereign foreign debt.
It is an important part of realizing financial stability. Vigorously attracting foreign investment is conducive to alleviating the shortage of domestic funds and promoting national economic and social development, but the purpose of borrowing money is to repay the principal and interest, so we should consider the use efficiency and repayment ability of the project. The lesson of Argentina tells us that the government's borrowing regulations must be controlled and the borrowing authority must be concentrated in the central government. Although China implements graded finance and local governments have repeatedly called for self-borrowing, we still think that we should be quite cautious about the issue of borrowing authority to avoid the short-term behavior of local governments and the chaos of the bond market. The central government should earnestly fulfill the unified management responsibility of the government's sovereign foreign debt, and relevant departments should do a good job of cooperation; The structure of government debt, especially sovereign foreign debt, should be reasonable and the scale should be moderate, which must be compatible with the government's repayment ability. While strengthening the management of government sovereign foreign debts, other foreign debts should also be managed and operated with reference to international practices.
(D) A sound financial supervision system is an important measure to achieve financial stability. Today, with the increasingly close economic ties in the world, exchange rate has become an important link and tool for national regulation. The biggest feeling of Argentina's fixed exchange rate system is that it is very powerful in controlling inflation, but "easy to get in, hard to get out", that is, there is no reason to abandon it when everything is going well, and it is difficult to abandon it when it is difficult. Once abandoned, the result is very bad. At present, China has successfully implemented a single and managed floating exchange rate system based on market demand, mainly because China has more foreign exchange reserves and only liberalized its current account revenue and expenditure. The lessons of other countries and the experience of China tell us that we should keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and at the same time further explore and improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in deepening financial reform; Financial liberalization, especially capital account convertibility and financial liberalization, should be steadily promoted on the premise of improving supervision.
(E) The establishment of a solid and powerful national finance is an important guarantee for achieving financial stability. Looking at the experiences and lessons of countries all over the world, financial risks will eventually be reflected and embodied in national finance. Therefore, while paying attention to preventing and resolving financial risks, the government should pay attention to strengthening the management of fiscal revenue and expenditure and enhancing its financial strength. At present, China's fiscal deficit is increasing and various risks are accumulating. Therefore, we must clearly realize the necessity and urgency of preventing financial risks. It is necessary to implement full-scale budget management not only for the explicit debts in the central budget, but also for the explicit debts outside the central budget and the explicit debts of local governments at all levels, and also to effectively monitor all kinds of hidden debts, contingent debts, loss debts and non-performing assets debts of public institutions and state-owned enterprises.