According to statistics, in the past 15 years, the cumulative consumption of energy and other important mineral resources in China accounted for more than 80% of the historical total. In 2009, China consumed 408 million tons of oil, 3.02 billion tons of coal, 570 million tons of steel and 65.438+0.47 billion tons of cement, and the consumption of various mineral products exceeded 7 billion tons. At present, China has become the country with the largest consumption of coal, steel, alumina, copper and cement in the world, and its oil consumption ranks second in the world.
(a) The rapid growth of domestic demand for mineral resources
The overall demand for energy and other important mineral resources continues to grow. Despite the adverse impact of the world financial crisis, serious natural disasters have occurred in China, but the basic situation of steady and rapid development of China's national economy has not changed. According to the forecast of relevant state departments, the population of China will reach 654.38+0.47 billion in 2020, and the GDP will reach more than 654.38+0.5 trillion US dollars. The next 10 ~ 20 years will be an important period for the industrialization of China. Heavy chemical industry with machinery, steel and petrochemical as the core and construction and automobile industry with the characteristics of "living and traveling" are important driving forces to promote economic growth. According to the basic law of energy and other important mineral resources consumption, the demand for energy and other important mineral resources will continue to grow on the whole. The analysis of supply and demand of major minerals in recent years is shown in Table 7.
Table 7 Analysis Table of Supply and Demand of Energy and Important Mineral Resources in China
Table 8 Guarantee degree of 45 major minerals with proven reserves in China to the demand in 2020.
According to the analysis of the existing proven mineral resources reserves and forecast demand, the external dependence of bulk mineral products such as oil, iron, copper, aluminum and potassium salt will still be at a high level, and the constraint of resource shortage on China's economic development will be further strengthened. According to the analysis and prediction of the recoverable reserves of 45 main minerals, see Table 8. By 2020, there will be a shortage of 25 minerals in different degrees, of which 1 1 is the pillar mineral of the national economy. The external dependence and stock of various resources will reach 20% of the total primary energy (700 million tons of oil equivalent), 68% of oil (465.438 billion tons), 32% of natural gas (80 billion to 65.438 billion cubic meters), 56% of iron ore (340 million tons of standard ore) and 63% of copper (4.8 million tons) respectively.
(b) The difficulty of utilizing foreign mineral resources has increased.
According to the principle of "using two markets and two resources", China mining industry has made great progress in "going global" and made important contributions to alleviating the shortage of some mineral resources in China. Preliminary results have been achieved in overseas geological and mineral work, and the global mineral resources information system has been initially established. Preliminary progress has been made in the basic geological survey of foreign aid, which has created working conditions for subsequent overseas exploration and development. However, with the intensification of global competition and the game of national economic interests, the cost of using overseas resources has increased sharply and the risks have intensified.
From the perspective of international supply and demand pattern, the western-led resource supply pattern and resource market system have led to a continuous sharp rise in resource prices, posing a serious threat to China's resource security and economic interests. From 2002 to 2008, the prices of oil, iron ore, copper and nickel increased by 300%, 460%, 345% and 448% respectively. In 2008 alone, due to rising prices, China's oil imports spent more than 280 billion yuan over the previous year; In the past six years, China iron and steel enterprises spent more than 700 billion yuan due to the rising iron ore price, which was equivalent to more than twice the total profit of China iron and steel enterprises in the same period. The rising price of mineral products has increased the cost of China's manufacturing industry, weakened China's industrial competitiveness, led to rising prices and increased domestic inflationary pressure.
As a resource-consuming country, every big move in the international market will have a great impact on the international market price. The drastic fluctuation of international resource prices caused by international capital speculation, behind-the-scenes operation of international politics and oligopoly has increased the economic cost and political and military contribution of China's massive import of mineral resources.
Because China's "going out" started late, it is difficult to break through the barriers of international mining vested interests in a short time and gain the initiative of mineral development. China's mining enterprises lack international competitiveness, lack of risk prevention measures, weak ability to resist risks, and insufficient evaluation of resource risks, legal risks and political risks. I am not familiar with international practices and common rules enough to adapt to the complicated international situation. Therefore, most of China's foreign consultation resource development projects have made little progress, and the resource development projects being implemented are also difficult to achieve the expected results.
As a big country with a population of1300 million, China has a rigid demand for energy and other important mineral resources in the process of industrialization, so it is neither realistic nor possible to pin the supply of resources entirely on foreign markets. With the increasing variety, degree and quantity of external dependence of resources, resource monopoly, control and trade friction are increasing, and the risk of using overseas resources is increasing sharply. Energy and important bulk mineral resources are controlled by other countries, which seriously affects China's economic security. Therefore, it is of great significance to strengthen the security of domestic energy and important mineral resources for maintaining China's resource security and economic security.
Second, the potential of domestic energy and other important mineral resources.
Chinese mainland is a vast country, located at the intersection of Pacific Rim, Ancient Asia and Tethys. The comprehensive study shows that oil and gas, coal, uranium and other energy minerals have great prospecting potential, and important mineral resources in key metallogenic belts have good metallogenic conditions. By strengthening geological and mineral exploration, we can achieve a breakthrough in prospecting and greatly increase China's mineral resources reserves.
(1) There is still a huge space for geological prospecting.
China's land metallogenic conditions are superior, and the past geological exploration was mainly in the east and shallow layers. With the continuous improvement of exploration technology and methods, there is great prospecting potential in the west and deep. In the west, which accounts for 2/3 of the country's land area, the number of discovered mineral deposits only accounts for 14% of the whole country, and the exploration degree is extremely low, so the prospecting prospect is very considerable. The research shows that if the western part can reach the level of geological exploration in the eastern part, hundreds of large and medium-sized deposits will be discovered, which will increase the proven resource reserves in China by more than 1 times. Although the geological work in the east is high, the preliminary exploration depth is shallow (300-500m). The new drilling and geophysical exploration results show that there is still a huge prospecting prospect in the underground area of 500- 1000m or even deeper. Experts predict that if the depth of exploration and evaluation is extended to 2000 meters underground, the reserves of metal mines in China will greatly increase.
(b) The potential of energy and minerals is considerable.
(1) The oil and gas resources have great potential. By the end of 2008, it was predicted that the oil resources were 76.5 billion tons, and the accumulated proven reserves were 28.9 billion tons, with a proven rate of 37.8%. The potential of natural gas resources is 35 trillion cubic meters, the accumulated proven reserves are 7.8 trillion cubic meters, and the proven rate of resources is 22.4%. Scientific evaluation and prediction show that half of the oil potential in the east has not yet been proved, and 3/4 of the oil resource potential in the west and sea areas has yet to be discovered.
(2) The prospect of coal resources is considerable. According to the analysis of the prediction and evaluation results of coal resources, the predicted resource amount is 3.9 trillion tons, the accumulated proven resource reserves are10.3 trillion tons, and the proven rate of resources is 24.9%. The total amount of coal resources is very rich, but the unplanned coal resources reserves reach 673.2 billion tons. Fine investigation and detailed investigation of unused reserves are mainly distributed in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Mongolia. The western region has a low degree of geological work and good resource conditions, especially in Xinjiang, where the proven degree is low and the prospect of coal exploration is great.
(3) Uranium has great potential. According to the prediction of China's total uranium resources by the Geological Bureau of the Nuclear Industry, it is predicted that the uranium resources are ×× 10,000 tons, and the accumulated reserves of uranium resources are ×× 10,000 tons, with a certainty of 20%. The overall resource potential of uranium is great. According to the geological conditions of uranium mineralization, there are two intercontinental giant uranium metallogenic belts running through China in the world, with superior macro-metallogenic environment and rich potential uranium resources. As we all know, the periphery and depth of the deposit, new zones and new types of uranium deposits are important directions for uranium prospecting in the future.
(3) Important mineral resources have great potential.
The potential of important mineral resources in China is considerable, with an average identification degree of 35%. Compared with the proven resource reserves, the potential of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and gold in the resources to be proven is about 2-3 times that of the proven resource reserves (Table 9).
Iron: The predicted resource amount is 654.38+77 million tons, the accumulated proven resource reserves are 765.438+40 million tons, and the proven resource rate is 28.7%. The iron ore resources to be proved are concentrated in Anshan-Benxi, Liaoning, Jidong, Hebei and Panzhihua, Sichuan.
Copper: The predicted resource amount is 226.49 million tons, the accumulated proven resource reserves are 99.49 million tons, and the proven resource rate is 30.5%. The copper resources to be proved are mainly distributed in Gangdise, Tibet, "Sanjiang" in the southwest and Tianshan Mountain in Xinjiang. Among them, the Gangdise metallogenic belt in Tibet has a potential of 50 million tons of copper resources, and the southwest "Sanjiang" Pulang is expected to form a180,000 tons copper resource base.
Bauxite: The predicted resource amount is 65.438+0.63 billion tons, the accumulated resource reserve is 3.2 billion tons, and the resource identification rate is 654.38+06.5%. The resources to be proved have great potential, mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Chongqing and other regions.
Gold: The predicted resource amount is 22,529 tons, the accumulated proven resource reserves are 99 1, 1 ton, and the proven resource rate is 30.5%. The gold resources to be proved are distributed in Shandong, adjacent areas of Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningchuan, Qinghai, adjacent areas of Yunnan, Guizhou and Guangxi, Qinling, Jidong, Hebei, Liaoning and Gangdise, Tibet.
Potassium salt: the predicted resource is 2.07 billion tons, the accumulated proven resource reserve is 890 million tons, and the proven resource rate is 30. 1%. The research shows that China has the geological background to find more potash resources. In addition to Lop Nur and Qaidam potassium-bearing basins, there are Paleogene salt basins in southwestern Yunnan, Ordovician salt basins in Ordos, Triassic potassium-rich brine and polyhalite deposits in Sichuan Basin, Neogene potassium-bearing oilfield water in western Qaidam, and special potassium lithium boron salt lakes in Qinghai-Tibet.
Table 9 List of Energy and Important Mineral Resources Potential in China
(D) The utilization of mineral resources is difficult and there is great potential for revitalization.
Among the 159 minerals with proven reserves in China, most of the deposits with proven reserves of important minerals such as iron and copper are lean, and 1/3 of the proven iron ores is refractory to hematite. More than 98% of bauxite is diaspore-type resources, and processing energy consumption is high. A considerable part of some lead-zinc mines are oxide ores, which are difficult to be effectively utilized. * * * There are many raw ore and associated ore, so it is difficult to beneficiate and smelt, and the comprehensive utilization efficiency is low.
There are a lot of low-grade refractory minerals in China that have not been utilized. For example, the average grade of iron ore is 33.5%, which is lower than the world average 10 percentage point; Most bauxite mines in China are of low grade and poor quality. The average grade of copper ore is only 0.87%. Among the identified resource reserves, refractory iron ore is 8.58 billion tons, accounting for18.7% of the total reserves; The copper mine is 1 1 ten thousand tons, accounting for17.5% of the total reserves; Bauxite is 22.4 million tons, accounting for 10.8% of the total reserves.
The utilization efficiency of mineral resources is generally low. The average utilization rate of 45 main minerals accounts for only 57.9% of the proven resource reserves, including bauxite utilization rate of 23%, titanium utilization rate of 24%, iron ore utilization rate of 45% and platinum group metal utilization rate of 48%. The endowment characteristics of resources, coupled with the relatively backward level of technology and equipment, lead to a very low long-term utilization rate of proven resources and a serious waste of resources.
Tailings and waste rocks produced during the development and utilization of mineral resources have become the largest industrial solid waste, accounting for about 80% of the total solid waste. There are more than 2,700 tailings ponds in China, including more than 400 large tailings ponds. The total amount of tailings in various metal mines is about 6 billion to 8 billion tons, and it is increasing by 300 million tons every year, while the comprehensive utilization rate of tailings is only about 8.3%.
Although this part of the resource endowment is poor, with the progress of science and technology, under the existing economic and technological conditions, only by further strengthening technical research and giving policy support can we gradually realize the saving, intensive and comprehensive utilization of resources. There is a lot of room to improve the utilization efficiency of mineral resources by strengthening management, promoting scientific and technological progress, developing circular economy. Therefore, improving the efficiency of saving, intensive and comprehensive utilization of mineral resources can transform the existing potential into resource productivity.
III. Geological Environment of China
(A) man-made geological disasters are increasing.
Judging from the current situation, national and local infrastructure construction is in the ascendant, large-scale engineering construction has been started continuously, mine development activities have intensified, urbanization process has accelerated, and a new round of rural housing construction climax has emerged. A series of large-scale transportation, water conservancy, energy, electric power and communication projects, such as the Three Gorges Reservoir, Qinghai-Tibet Railway, Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Sichuan-Tibet Highway, West-East Gas Transmission, West-East Power Transmission and West Route Project of South-to-North Water Transfer, are all located in or pass through geological disaster-prone areas. Therefore, in the future, the situation of geological disasters in China is still very serious. Under the joint influence of natural and human factors, sudden geological disasters such as human-induced collapse, landslide and debris flow are in a rapid rising stage, and the losses are increasing, and this trend will continue for a long time; It is difficult to reverse the trend of land subsidence expansion in a short time. The settlement rate in most areas is still at a high level, and the ground fissure disasters that accompany it are getting worse. Karst collapse is concentrated in towns and mining areas, and its scale is getting bigger and bigger, and its influence is becoming increasingly prominent. The comprehensive prevention and control measures of seawater intrusion have achieved remarkable results in some areas, but the overall situation is not optimistic. According to the statistical results of China Geological Environment Bulletin (2004), in 2004, there were 13555 geological disasters in China, including 976 geological disasters that caused casualties or economic losses of more than 500,000 yuan. In the whole year, * * * caused casualties 1407, including 734 dead and 24 missing/kloc-0. Man-made factors have become an important cause of sudden geological disasters. More than 50% of the geological disasters and deaths in China are related to human engineering and economic activities. For example, in 200 1 year, there were 50 geological disasters caused by human factors in Guangdong Province, accounting for 64. 1% of the total number of disasters, reaching 83% in 2002, and the number of deaths accounted for 54% of the total number of deaths; In 200 1 year, 70% of sudden geological disasters in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region were caused by human activities, reaching 83% in 2002, and the death toll accounted for 92% of the total death toll.
(b) The situation of groundwater resources is becoming increasingly severe.
The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in China is very prominent. At present, the irrigation area lacks about 30 billion cubic meters of water every year, and the industry and cities lack about 5.8 billion cubic meters of water every year. About half of the more than 50,000 towns and villages in China are short of water. With the development of economy, industrial and urban water consumption has increased rapidly, agricultural water has been squeezed out continuously, and groundwater has been over-exploited in many areas. At present, there are 56 regional descending funnels in China, most of which occur in the northern plain, some aquifers have tended to be drained, and the storage resources have been significantly reduced. The most direct consequence of groundwater overexploitation is that the available groundwater resources are obviously reduced, which leads to the shortage of groundwater resources and seriously threatens the safety of water supply. If there is a long-term drought or other unexpected accidents, not only will agriculture be greatly reduced or even lost due to lack of water, but the water supply in large and medium-sized cities will also be seriously affected. For example, in 2005, the Songhua River in the northeast and the Beijiang River in Guangdong suddenly became polluted, and the water supply in cities along the line had to be interrupted. Because groundwater is not easy to be polluted, the emergency water supply function of groundwater is outstanding. With the continuous development of energy and mineral resources in China, the proportion of groundwater in urban water supply and residential water supply will continue to increase, and it will play an increasingly important role in emergency water supply.
With the improvement of residents' income level in China, residents' demand for a new generation of high-end durable consumer goods such as houses and automobiles is increasing day by day, which constantly stimulates the rapid development of chemical industry and manufacturing industry, accelerates the pace of urbanization, and greatly increases industrial waste and urban waste. According to the estimation of the World Bank, at present, China's manufacturing industry produces about 5.5 billion tons of harmless waste and about 700 million tons of hazardous waste every year. The economic loss caused by environmental pollution is equivalent to 3.5% ~ 8% of GDP. The situation of hazardous waste and groundwater pollution is becoming more and more serious, which has threatened the health of local residents in some places. For example, the sewage discharge in Haicheng City, Liaoning Province has caused a large area of groundwater pollution along Wudao River. In recent years, thrombotic diseases and hyperthyroidism have occurred frequently in Damo village, and the death toll has reached 160. Soil pollution in the Pearl River Delta region directly threatens the safety of groundwater quality. Due to soil and groundwater pollution, harmful elements such as fluorine, chromium, cadmium, lead and zinc in agricultural products seriously exceed the standard. Soil and groundwater pollution threatens the quality and safety of agricultural products, which leads to the increase of harmful residues in agricultural products, which not only affects the health of residents, but also reduces the competitiveness of agricultural products in the international market.
(3) The quality of regional geological environment has declined.
At present, China's desertification land area is about 2.93 million square kilometers, accounting for 30.5% of the country's land area, and nearly 400 million people live in desertification areas. With the rapid increase of human economic activities, desertification in the north has a trend of increasing year by year. According to statistics, 3436 square kilometers are increasing every year, which leads to the direct economic loss of desertification reaching 54 billion yuan every year. It is one of the important measures to carry out geological investigation on the causes and evolution of desertification in northern China, investigate and evaluate the suitability of water and soil resources for ecological construction and environmental protection measures such as returning farmland to forests and grazing land to grassland in desertification areas, and explore the critical groundwater level and soil conditions needed for desertification control. The ecological environment in northwest China is fragile, and surface water and groundwater support the oasis ecosystem. Both surface water conservancy projects and groundwater intake projects are geographical redistribution and utilization of water resources in the whole basin, which will inevitably lead to changes in groundwater environment and directly affect the ecological survival of natural oases. Unreasonable development and utilization of water resources may lead to irreversible environmental disasters. Rocky desertification is serious in karst areas in southwest China. According to the report of China Geological Survey in 2005, the area of rocky desertification in southwest karst area accounts for 14.2% of the surveyed area, with an average annual growth rate of 1650 square kilometers since the end of last century, with an average annual growth rate of 2%. In the past 10 years, the rocky desertification area of 5,000 square kilometers has been effectively controlled, but due to complex geological conditions and unreasonable human activities, the rocky desertification area has increased by 25,000 square kilometers, and the proportion of rocky desertification intensification and improvement is 5: 1.
Fourth, economic and social development urgently needs geological work to provide all-round and wide-ranging services.
China's economic and social development puts forward new and higher requirements for geological work: disaster prevention and mitigation, engineering construction, groundwater resources development, land planning and main functional zoning, agricultural and forestry development, ecological environmental protection, construction of important economic zones, global climate change and other aspects all need geological work to provide basic support.
(1) Disaster prevention and mitigation needs to speed up the investigation of geological disasters and enhance the monitoring and early warning capabilities.
Sudden geological disasters, such as collapse, landslide and debris flow, involve nearly 50% of China's land area, and human-induced geological disasters are on the rise, causing about 1000 deaths and billions of yuan in property losses every year. Slowly changing geological disasters such as land subsidence and ground fissures have developed rapidly in the central and eastern plains and coastal areas, causing serious damage to infrastructure such as roads and bridges, flood control facilities, underground pipelines and houses, and causing economic losses of billions of yuan every year. At present, the survey accuracy of geological disasters in China is low, and the monitoring work starts late, which can not meet the requirements of disaster prevention and mitigation. It is urgent to improve the accuracy of geological disaster investigation and strengthen the capacity building of monitoring and early warning.
(2) Major projects and urban and rural construction need geological work to provide basic guarantee.
In the next 5 ~ 15 years, the demand for infrastructure construction in China is strong, and engineering construction is at its peak. Major projects such as the Three Gorges Project, the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the West-to-East Gas Transmission Project and the West-to-East Power Transmission Project are being implemented or will be implemented soon. The construction scale of transportation infrastructure such as expressways, railways, inland river shipping and urban subway tracks is increasing; Construction planning of ports, cross-sea bridges and subsea tunnels; The planning, construction and operation safety of major projects and infrastructure put forward new requirements for basic geological work, especially for active fault investigation and regional crustal stability evaluation, groundwater resources exploration, prevention and control of geological disasters in mountainous areas and high and steep slopes, and real-time monitoring and early warning.
Building a new socialist countryside requires doing a good job in agricultural geology, promoting the adjustment of agricultural structure and ensuring the quality and safety of agricultural products. Urbanization requires doing a good job in urban geology to provide geological information for urban planning, municipal construction, underground space utilization and waste disposal. In the coming period, the construction task is very heavy, so we must take geological exploration as the basis, avoid mistakes in decision-making, and try not to take detours or take fewer detours.
(3) Mineral development and mine environmental protection need geological work to provide basic support.
With the decrease of resource reserves in the eastern resource base of China, China's resource replacement base will gradually move westward. Most of these resource replacement bases are located in hilly and mountainous areas with fragile geological environment and frequent geological disasters. On the one hand, sudden geological disasters such as collapse, landslide and debris flow induced by the construction of a large number of mine engineering facilities in the process of mineral resources development pose a great threat to the safe production of mineral resources and the safety of human settlements; On the other hand, in the process of resource development, it will undoubtedly have a great impact on the geological environment. Man-made destruction of the natural balance of rock and soil and unreasonable treatment of "three wastes" in mining production will cause water and soil pollution and environmental deterioration. In order to solve these problems and ensure the safety of mining activities and the sustainable utilization of geological environment in mineral resources development zones, geological work is urgently needed to provide basic support for the whole process.
(4) To protect people's lives and improve the living environment, we must strengthen geological work.
The exploitation of mineral resources and the protection of geological environment are closely related to people's lives. With the improvement of people's living standards, the consumption demand of automobile oil, coal gas and home building materials is increasing day by day. It is necessary to do a good job in geological exploration and increase the supply of energy and raw materials. To solve the drinking water safety problem of rural residents and prevent harmful elements from exceeding the standard and causing endemic diseases, it is urgent to strengthen hydrogeological exploration and speed up the pace of finding water and changing it into water. It is also required to do a good job in environmental geology, carry out land consolidation and prevent mine environmental problems such as ground subsidence and waste occupation.
(5) Land planning and main functional zoning need geological work to provide basic geological basis.
Land planning and main functional zoning must be based on the carrying capacity of resources and environment, and geological elements such as water and soil resources, energy resources, mineral resources, rock structure and geological structure are the basic components of resources and environment. The evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity needs a lot of detailed basic geological data. However, the accuracy of regional geological environment survey completed in China is low, which is difficult to meet the requirements of land planning and the planning and construction of main functional areas, and the level of basic geological work needs to be improved urgently.