1 internal economy of high-speed railway
1 improve transportation capacity and economic benefits
At present, the transportation capacity of beijing-shanghai railway is seriously inadequate. Beijing-shanghai railway accounts for about 8% of the total length of the national railway, but it undertakes about 14% of the passenger turnover and 10% of the cargo turnover of the national railway. The average transportation density of Beijing-Shanghai railway has reached more than 30 million passengers and 80 million tons of freight, which are five times and five times the national average respectively, and have reached the limit of the transportation capacity of passenger and freight double-track railways.
After the completion of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, it will fundamentally change the tight transportation capacity of the Beijing-Shanghai passage. By then, the speed of Beijing-Shanghai passenger trains will reach 300 km/h, and the whole running time will only take 5 hours, and the number of passengers transported in one direction will reach more than 80 million every year, forming a fast and large-capacity passenger channel. At the same time, the transportation capacity of the existing Beijing-Shanghai line will also be released, and its annual one-way freight capacity will reach more than 300 million tons. Due to the scale effect of the railway industry, the increase of passenger and freight volume will reduce the railway transportation cost and improve the railway operating profit.
Judging from the economic benefits of foreign high-speed railways, the annual revenue of Shinkansen, which accounts for 9% of the operating mileage of Japanese railways, accounts for 40% of the total railway revenue. France TGV Southeast High-speed Railway achieved a surplus in the first year. 199 1 year, the passenger revenue of TGV southeast line is 5 billion francs, and the net profit is as high as194.4 billion francs. After nearly 10 years of operation, the financial income of TGV Southeast Line has repaid all debts of line construction and high-speed train procurement.
2 to promote the redistribution of the transportation market
Compared with expressway and air transportation, high-speed railway has obvious advantages in many technical and economic indicators, especially in speed and price. High-speed railway is the most cost-effective mode of transportation. For example, the train running time of Shinkansen in Japan has been shortened from 5 hours to 2 hours, and the travel speed has doubled, but the fare is cheaper than that of the plane, forcing the Tokyo-Nagoya flight to be grounded. Paris-Lyon TGV high-speed line, speed 1 train, only takes two hours to travel, and takes away most of the aviation market. Eurostar trains connecting London, Paris and Brussels, and Thalgs high-speed trains between Paris and Brussels have also taken away a considerable market share of aviation. After the German ICE high-speed train was put into operation, it also brought great pressure to air transport. Lufthansa had to lower its price and gradually give way to short-distance transportation by ice.
In terms of long-distance passenger transport, the safety and comfort of high-speed railway also have certain advantages. Therefore, in the competition of various modes of transportation, high-speed railway can form the redistribution of transportation market and further strengthen the transportation position of railway.
2 the external economy of high-speed railway
Calculation of time saving value of 1
As an infrastructure, the social benefits of the transportation industry are far greater than its own economic benefits, and one of the calculable travel time savings shows great social benefits. For example, the Shinkansen in Japan saves passengers' time only by changing from the existing railway to the high-speed railway every year, which is equivalent to all the expenses needed to build the Tokaido Shinkansen.
The calculation of time saving value is indirectly obtained by reducing travel time and increasing the time of other activities, and then calculating the time value of other activities. It is a calculation method of opportunity cost, that is, to calculate the loss of income from giving up a most likely alternative activity. People's activities are generally divided into economic activities and leisure activities. Therefore, calculating the value of travel time is transformed into determining the value of working time and leisure time, and considering the probability of using the time saved by travel for work or leisure. Assuming that the leisure time value is ignored, the travel time value can be calculated by the following formula: where: r is the travel time value; Q is the number of passengers who change the mode of transportation; F is the year; R is the effective utilization coefficient of passengers' travel, that is, the ratio of passengers' working travel to total travel; △C is the travel time saved by passengers changing the mode of transportation; P is the unit time value.
R=Q×r×△C×P
The calculation of P in the formula is the key, which is closely related to the level of regional economic development and per capita income. The higher the general economic development and people's living standards, the higher the value of travel per unit time.
Speculation on the value of unit travel time 1 on Beijing-Shanghai line
Speculation on gross national product. The gross national product in 2005 was 18232 1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.9% over 2004 and10/%over 2003. Assuming that the growth rate from 2006 to 20 10 is 10%, the gross national product in 20 10 is estimated to be about 3 trillion yuan through regression analysis.
Speculation on per capita GDP. According to the predicted gross national product in 20 10, the per capita gross national product in 20 14 is about 2 1429 yuan.
Reflections on the value of unit travel time on Beijing-Shanghai line. According to estimates, the per capita GDP along the Beijing-Shanghai line has been about twice that of the whole country, and the per capita GDP in Beijing-Shanghai area will still be at this level in 20 10. From the historical ratio, it can be calculated that the average value is 0, which is the ratio of per capita GDP along the Beijing-Shanghai line to the whole country, so the per capita GNP along the Beijing-Shanghai line is about 44,786 yuan.
At present, the labor law stipulates that the working time per week is limited to 40 hours, so the working time in a year is 2000 hours, so the value of the unit travel time along the Beijing-Shanghai line is about 24 yuan/hour.
2 Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway travel time benefit calculation
If only the passenger flow of five one-stop express trains running between Beijing and Shanghai every day is counted, the daily average direct passenger flow between Beijing and Shanghai in April 2006 is 5506, in May it is 5277, and in June it is 45 18. The average daily direct passenger flow in these three months is 5 100 person-times. If the increase of passenger flow during the Golden Week and summer vacation is not taken into account, it will be nearly 1.8 1.5 million passengers a year. According to regression analysis, by 20 10, the direct passenger flow between Beijing and Shanghai will reach 3.5 million.
If Beijing-Shanghai running time is saved as 6 hours, and R is taken as 50%, the travel time saved by direct passenger flow of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail is as follows:
R=0.035×0.5×6×24
= 35.2 billion yuan
2 the impact on the regional economy
It is conducive to the economic development along the line and the emergence of scientific and technological innovation sources. Along the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway, whether it is Beijing-Tianjin-Tanggu or the Yangtze River Delta, it is one of the most economically developed areas in China. Although the area along Beijing and Shanghai only accounts for 3% of the country, the total industrial and agricultural output value accounts for nearly 40% of the country. Although the industry along the Beijing-Shanghai line is quite developed, the energy it relies on is quite poor, and most of the energy and raw materials need to be transferred from outside the region. Once the high-speed railway is put into operation, the freight volume will increase greatly on the basis of separation of passenger and freight.
Beijing, Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanjing and other cities are all regions with strong scientific and technological strength and are important scientific and technological development bases in China. The construction and operation of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway provides convenient conditions for the optimal combination of technical resources, production resources and markets along the line. In addition, the high-speed railway itself is the product of high-tech development, involving a series of high-tech fields such as electronics, information, materials, aviation and environmental protection. The construction of high-speed railway can not only improve the knowledge density in the railway system, but also promote the development of a large number of related high-tech industries and promote the development of China's industries in the direction of high technology and high precision.
Promote the development of the tertiary industry along the route. After the completion of the high-speed railway, due to the greatly shortened travel time, induced passenger flow will occur. It is speculated that the average induction rate of passenger flow in different regions is 20%-25%. The increase in the number of tourists will undoubtedly bring opportunities to the development of tertiary industries such as catering, commerce and service industries along the route.
Increase employment opportunities. The employment opportunities of high-speed railway are mainly manifested in the following aspects: ① The construction itself needs to invest a lot of labor, and its maintenance and operation also need to add new posts and departments; ② The completion of high-speed railway contributes to the development of traditional economy and knowledge economy, which leads to the increase of output. Coupled with the development of the tertiary industry and tourism, it will inevitably increase employment opportunities. ③ The operation of high-speed railway can improve travel conditions, save travel time and improve regional accessibility, thus improving the investment environment, attracting more foreign investment and creating more employment opportunities.
It is helpful to narrow the differences in economic development between regions. A country or a large region, due to historical, geographical, political and other reasons, often has unbalanced regional development characteristics. National high-speed railway network or trans-regional high-speed railway can make the core cities in different regions more closely linked, thus promoting economic exchanges, industrial diffusion and personnel and technology exchanges, and making contributions to regional development.
High-speed railway can not only expand transportation capacity, reduce transportation cost, save travel time and promote regional economic development, but also save resources and reduce environmental damage and pollution caused by transportation activities. On the TGV high-speed line in France, the unit energy consumption per passenger kilometer is 16g oil equivalent. At present, the average unit energy consumption of many aircraft is 57g oil equivalent per passenger kilometer, and the harmful emission of high-speed railway is much smaller than that of aircraft. It can be seen that the social benefits of high-speed railway are enormous.
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In today's world, with the increasing population, the limitations of land, energy and environment are becoming increasingly prominent. The requirements of new technology and sustainable development provide new conditions and impetus for adjusting the old traffic structure and changing the traditional traffic development mode around the world.
Foreign high-speed railways have developed rapidly. Under the conditions of small land area, high population density and relative shortage of resources, land and energy, Japan put forward the idea of developing high-speed railway as early as 1950s, and built the world's first high-speed railway from Tokyo to Osaka with a top speed of 2 10km in 1964, which opened up a new road for transportation development. After Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and other countries have also built high-speed railways. High-speed railway mainly has the following advantages:
First, the safety performance is good. According to relevant data, since the successful operation of Japan's high-speed railway, there has not been a passenger death accident, which has created a miracle of transportation safety.
Second, the energy-saving effect is remarkable. The energy consumption of high-speed railway is calculated by unit person-kilometer, which is less than 1/5 of that of automobile and plane transportation.
Third, it is conducive to environmental protection. High-speed railway trains are mainly driven by electricity, which can reduce the environmental pollution caused by transportation without using oil resources.
Fourth, it occupies less land. In terms of land resources, compared with four-lane expressways, high-speed railways with the same mileage occupy about 1/3 of expressways.
Fifth, the benefits are good. From the perspective of economic benefits, only high-speed railways have changed the image of operating losses of most foreign railways, and the payback period of high-speed railways is generally only about 10 years.
The technical and economic advantages of high-speed railway in transportation capacity, speed, safety, resource conservation, environmental protection, and improving the rationality and efficiency of transportation energy utilization, as well as its great contribution to economic growth and its own economic benefits, have attracted great attention from relevant countries and regions. South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China plan to build high-speed railways in the early 20th century. Russia and the United States also decided to build high-speed railways.
It can be said that under the new economic development mode with saving resources, protecting ecology and living environment and sustainable development as the main contents, the rapid development of high-speed railways has increasingly been regarded as a rational choice for human beings to develop transportation modes. In this regard, we should make full use of the advantages of backwardness, develop high-speed railway as a means of transportation, and strive to improve the quality and efficiency of transportation development.
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/gwtl 2/2007/2007 04/2007-04-03/2007 04 03 100846 _ 40004 _ 2 . html
This article has a good data comparison between high-speed rail highway and airplane, which is very beneficial to the paper.
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This has a comparative advantage
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Finally, the landlord should not only write papers online, but also quote academic journals, otherwise the articles you quote are not easy to write.
. com . cn/reports/2008 462 gaosutielu . htm
This book can also be used as a good reference, but I'm afraid it's hard to find.
Personally, I think we should
Social development needs (mainly economic needs, safety and comfort needs, tourism can also be said)
Technical advantages of high-speed rail (high speed, environmental protection, energy saving, safety, etc.). )
If you want to compare with other means of transportation, just talk about the shortcomings of other means of transportation.
Please refer to the periodical for the specific format.