By chance, I heard that A shares have an amazing rule in the last decade, that is, the stock market performed very well around the eleventh!
How good is it? In the past ten years, in the week before the 11 th holiday, 10 times, it rose 7 times; In the first week after the long vacation, 10 times, 8 times were taken.
Of course, eight times in ten years does not mean that the probability of rising is 80%. Statistically speaking, this is far from the number of samples needed for statistics. This truth should be understood.
However, we have a stock market with a history of several decades. Even if it is counted together for more than 20 years, it is still not enough samples.
In this case, we can subjectively guess from the logical level whether the rise of ten times and eight times is supported by logic.
What I can think of is that 2005 -2007 itself is a big bull market trend. After 2009, American monetary policy had a great impact on global stock markets, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting was held in the middle and late September. We just experienced it last week. The chart below shows the Federal Reserve's interest rate table last year. I remember that after the National Day of 20 10, non-ferrous stocks drove the stock market to skyrocket, which was also the second round of quantitative easing in the United States.
The second possibility is that the news of the stock market is generally warm around the National Day, which I believe is easy to understand.
The third possibility is from the game level. On the eve of the National Day holiday, most people began to sell before, and the selling pressure during the National Day week may not be so great. In fact, they should have felt this way before the Mid-Autumn Festival this year. Then after the long vacation, this part of the funds will return. This logic is actually a bit like the Spring Festival holiday. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, A shares have a very obvious pattern. I wrote an article last year.
However, if we look at the data before 2005, that is, not only the recent 10 year, we will find that the probability of the stock market performing well one week before and one week after the National Day is not so great. My own guess is that before the big bull market started in 2006, the stock market as a whole was a relatively small market, dominated by professionals and heavy investors. Ordinary people travel, which has little impact on the market. In addition, the Golden Week started on 1999, and the habit of traveling may be gradually formed. Therefore, during the previous long holidays, this wave of funds was not so obvious.
To sum up, in any case, the performance of 10 in the last ten years has certain logical support. But it is still far from scientific statistics, so it is good to refer to it. The real operation is still based on your own trading system.
Five dimensions reveal the new path of main investment
Recently, A shares have been in the weak shock of the stock fund game. In this regard, analysts said that the lack of incremental funds entering the market and the tightening of supervision have put risk appetite under pressure again, the rise of small-cap stocks has shown fatigue, the reduction of industrial capital has returned to high pressure, the expectation of RMB depreciation has revived, and liquidity will face pressure in the short term. In this context, the capital flow and operation layout have once again become the focus of attention. Today, in the form of a special topic, this paper discusses the latest trends of mainstream funds from five paths: block trade, Shanghai Stock Connect, Dragon and Tiger List, industrial capital and margin financing and securities lending, so as to provide investors with layout reference.
Block transactions: Since September, the average daily turnover has been 8 1, up 30% from the previous month.
During the period when the market maintained the box shock pattern, the volume of bulk transactions also declined. According to the statistics of straight flush, the market research center of Securities Daily shows that since August, the turnover of block transactions has dropped to 4.710.80 billion yuan. After ending the upward trend for three consecutive months, the monthly turnover of block trades still hovers around 46.6 billion yuan.
From the perspective of industry, as of September 22, the real estate industry ranked first with a monthly bulk transaction volume of 4.702 billion yuan, followed by the electronics industry, with a monthly bulk transaction volume of 4.582 billion yuan. The monthly bulk transactions of machinery and equipment, chemical industry and commercial banking also exceeded 4 billion yuan, with 4.498 billion yuan and 4.497 billion yuan respectively, and the non-bank finance and computer industry also reached 3.98 billion yuan. 49696.88868868686
As for individual stocks, as of September 22nd, * * * had 388 stocks on the block trading platform, with 34 block trades11,with an average daily turnover of 8 1, up about 30% from August.
Judging from the number of times the above-mentioned stocks appeared on the block trading platform, as of September 22nd, * * * had 15 stocks with block trading times reaching or exceeding 10, among which Midea Group had the most block trading times, reaching 47 times, Zhongxin Travel and *ST Shanshui had 39 times and 20 times respectively, and the number of block trading times reached or exceeded 65,438 times. Greenland Holdings, Jia Technology, Blu-ray Development, Meinian Health, Electric Academy, Huangshi Group, Liuzhou Medicine, Liard, Ruimaotong, yabang and Jingfeng Medicine.
From September to September 22nd, there were 1 12 stocks in the block trade, and the block trade turnover exceeded 654.38 billion yuan. Specifically, the turnover of bulk transactions in yongtai energy ranks first, reaching 2163,685,400 yuan, and Gree Electric also exceeds 654.38+0 billion yuan. It reached113031.1.7 million yuan. In addition, the block trading turnover of Greenland Holdings, Ji akg, SDIC Anxin, Huangshi Group, Everbright Securities and Wu Tong Holdings all exceeded 800 million yuan.
Some market participants said that in the current volatile market, investors need to avoid those stocks that are reduced by industrial capital.
2. Shanghai Stock Connect: The net inflow against the market in that month was 24140,000 yuan.
In September, the trading volume of the A-share market continued to be light, and the trading volume remained low. Especially since the market fell in September 12, the enthusiasm for capital participation declined rapidly. However, Shanghai Stock Connect funds still hold a relatively positive attitude towards the performance of the A-share market. In the 15 trading days since September, the funds of Shanghai Stock Connect have a net outflow for 7 days, and all the remaining 8 days have achieved a net inflow. On Thursday, the net outflow of funds from Shanghai Stock Connect ended for seven consecutive days, and on Thursday and Friday, the net inflow was realized for two consecutive days, with a cumulative net inflow of 1, 806,543.8 billion yuan.
According to the operation statistics of the top ten active stocks of Shanghai Stock Connect, the Securities Daily Market Research Center found that the top ten active stocks of Shanghai Stock Connect have involved 39 A-share targets since September. Judging from the number of listings, nine stocks including Kweichow Moutai, China Ping An, Conch, Minsheng Bank, CITIC Securities, Yili, Industrial Bank, China Merchants Bank and China Construction Bank all listed more than five times, with 65,438+respectively.
Among the above 39 active stocks before Shanghai Stock Connect 10, 23 active stocks have been bought net since September. Among them, during the period of 7 stocks, including China Ping An, Hengtong Optoelectronics, Conch, SAIC, Qingdao Haier, Poly Real Estate and Hebang Bio, the cumulative net purchases of Shanghai Stock Connect funds were all above 1 billion yuan, reaching104 million yuan, 320 million yuan and 231800 million yuan respectively. In addition, the cumulative net purchase amount of Shanghai Stock Connect funds in the month is more than 50 million yuan, including Changjiang Electric Power, Hengrui Pharma, Chihong Zinc Germanium, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Guotai Junan, Tasly, Oriental Jinyu and China Construction.
With the pursuit of Shanghai Stock Connect funds, the market performance of the top ten active stocks of Shanghai Stock Connect in that month was also remarkable. According to the statistics of the "Securities Daily" reporter, since September, among the top ten active stocks of the above 39 Shanghai Stock Connect, 22 stocks have outperformed the broader market (the Shanghai Stock Connect index fell within a month 1.67%), accounting for 56.4 1. Among them, Hebang Bio, Fiberhome Communication and Changdian Technology all rose more than 10%, which were 14.74%, 13.70% and10.0% respectively. In addition, stocks that rose during the period also included Tasly (8.64%), China Electric Power (8.45%), Sinotrans Development (3.30%), Hengrui Pharma (2.63%), China Ping An (2.55%), Yutong Bus (2.50%), Minsheng Bank (0.75%) and Aerospace Power.
The market generally believes that, looking at the recent market performance, the hot spots of sectors and individual stocks are not persistent, the wait-and-see atmosphere is quite strong, and the market profit-making effect is low. Whether the market can break the deadlock in the future depends on the attitude of OTC funds. In the general environment of low investment enthusiasm, foreign capital flows into the A-share market through Shanghai Stock Connect, which plays a role in stabilizing the A-share market to a certain extent. The capital movement of Shanghai Stock Connect reflects the investment judgment of international institutional investors on A shares. Historically, it has certain predictability and high accuracy. Therefore, the performance of the above-mentioned Shanghai Stock Connect funds to buy individual stocks is worth looking forward to.
Three dragons and tigers list: 258 active stocks entered the dragon and tiger list in a month.
Recently, the market has continued to get out of the shrinking shock market. Faced with the dilemma of the market, many stocks are active and frequently appear on the dragon and tiger list.
According to the statistics of straight flush, the Market Research Center of Securities Daily shows that since September, 258 * * * stocks have been listed on the Dragon and Tiger List, among which 20 stocks have been listed more than 10 times in a month. Excluding the recent initial public offerings, shares of Dongfang Xinxing, Yangguang, CLP Power and Jinlun were listed for the first time in a month, with 65,438+respectively.
Judging from the reasons for listing, there are 178 stocks listed on the Dragon and Tiger List because of "the deviation of the day's increase reached 7%". Excluding the recent initial public offering, there are * * * 152 stocks listed for this reason, totaling 192 times. Among them, Ma Shuang, Sichuan Province has been on the list for six times within a month of "the deviation of the day's increase reached 7%". In addition, Lingnan Holdings (4 times), Dongfang Xinxing (3 times), Liyuan Information (3 times), Taiji (3 times), Antarctic E-commerce (3 times), Tianshan Textile (3 times), Gansu Power Investment (3 times) and other stocks were listed within the month.
According to the data of the Dragon and Tiger List, among the above 152 stocks, the cumulative net purchase of 3 1 stock exceeds 1 billion yuan, among which the cumulative net purchases of Xinwangda, Fiyta A, Anjie Technology and Amway all exceed 200 million yuan. They are 233.429 million yuan, 213.3873 million yuan, 212.3526 million yuan and 20743 16 million yuan respectively, while Shi Lan Heavy Equipment, Fangda Chemical, Ketai Power Supply, Rongji Software, Jinke Shares, Ganzhao Optoelectronics, Guoxing Optoelectronics, Shenzhen.
Judging from the market performance, the above-mentioned 152 listed stocks almost included all bull stocks in that month, among which the share price of Sichuan Ma Shuang doubled in that month, with a cumulative increase of 105.97%, Liyuan Information (65.00%), Taiji Shares (46.45%) and Cao Meng Ecology (4107).
It is worth mentioning that the above stocks are generally the leading targets of popular concept plates. Taking Cao Meng Ecology as an example, the company is one of the leading PPP concepts in the two cities. From the perspective of industry, mechanical equipment, chemical industry, electronics, electrical equipment, etc. They are all the most concentrated Shenwan first-class industries in the month.
Fourth, industrial capital: more than 2 billion yuan to increase holdings of 9 stocks including Three Gorges Water Conservancy.
According to the statistics of the straight flush, the market research center of Securities Daily shows that since September, industrial capital has been sold for 624 times, involving 234 stocks, of which 85 have gained a net increase in industrial capital within one month, and only 147 has a net decrease. On the whole, the cumulative net reduction of industrial capital in the month was about 58 1 100 million yuan.
In this regard, analysts said that most listed companies' stocks were reduced, indicating that industrial capital is more cautious about the future trend of A shares. But for this reason, stocks that have been increased by industrial capital recently need more attention. Generally speaking, the main reasons for industrial capital to increase its own shares are optimistic about the company's future development situation and the current stock price is undervalued by the market. In the current weak market, the active operation of industrial capital highlights its confidence in the company's stock price recovery, and paying attention to relevant stocks on dips is a better strategy for the current investor layout.
Specifically, from the perspective of the number of net holdings in the month, 24 stocks in the two cities obtained industrial capital of more than one million shares in the month. Among them, eight stocks, including Three Gorges Water Conservancy, Xinzhu, Donghua Energy, Jinke, Shengtun Mining, Hengshun Zhongsheng, Xi 'an Tourism and ST Qiu Hui, all received over 10 million shares of industrial capital in that month.
It is worth noting that there were 1 1 companies whose net holdings of industrial capital exceeded 1% of the company's total tradable shares, including Kangyue Technology (7.48%), Three Gorges Water Conservancy (5.59%), Hsinchu Shares (5. 15%) and Xi 'an.
Good performance expectations have undoubtedly increased the confidence of industrial capital to increase its holdings of its own stocks. According to statistics, among the 85 companies that have increased their holdings in the above-mentioned month, 38 companies have disclosed the performance forecast of the third quarterly report, and 29 of them are pre-happy. Among them, seven companies such as Hengyi Petrochemical, Suzhou Gushu, Donghua Energy, Rong Shi Zhao Ye, Lu Sheng Communication, Zhongnan Culture and Commodity City are expected to double their performance in the third quarter, and two companies such as Wei Bei Communication and ruitai Technology are expected to turn losses year-on-year.
Judging from the market performance, among the above 87 stocks, 14 stocks rose more than 10% in a month. Dayang Chuangshi (40.63%), Three Gorges Water Conservancy (24.94%), Xi 'an Tourism (24.72%), Sanjin Sanwei (23. 1 1%), Jiuding Investment (22.78%), Gree Electric (20.99%) and Jinke.
5. Margin financing and securities lending: The net purchase of 53 underlying stocks in one month exceeds 1 100 million yuan.
With the continuation of the current stock game market, the market impact brought by the changes in the funds of the two financial institutions has been gradually amplified. According to the statistics of straight flush, according to the Market Research Center of Securities Daily, as of September 22, the balance of margin financing and securities lending in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 896.028 billion yuan, down 0. 16% from the previous month and rising for three consecutive times.
In terms of industries, as of September 22nd, banks, household appliances, real estate, building decoration, chemicals, public utilities, automobiles, leisure services, food and beverage, machinery and equipment, etc. 10 showed a net buying state during the period. The net purchase amount of financing during the period is 654.38+0025503500 yuan, 654.38+00058 1700 yuan, 9969 18000 yuan, 96 178700 yuan and 8241256000 yuan respectively.
As for the underlying stocks of margin financing and securities lending, as of September 22nd, * * * had 307 underlying stocks showing the trend of net purchase of financing during the period, and the accumulated net purchase amount of financing during the period reached 23.888 billion yuan. Among them, the net purchase amount of financing during the period of 248 underlying stocks was more than 654.38+0 billion yuan, and the net purchase amount of financing during the period of 53 underlying stocks exceeded 654.38+0 billion yuan. Specifically, Vanke A (2,357,727,500 yuan), Gree Electric (1491758,700 yuan), Minsheng Bank (8,591347,700 yuan), Xu Dong Optoelectronics (699,462,500 yuan), and Sanju Environmental Protection (. Oriental Garden (360,572110,000 yuan), Cao Meng Ecology (35 1.8735 million yuan), Anhui Water Conservancy (3,465,733,300 yuan), CITIC Securities (3,448,577,500 yuan), China (33,9901. Tasly (289,827,000 yuan), Zhengtai (2842 1290 yuan), Zhongke Sanhuan (270,688,400 yuan) and other recently active stocks were among the top net buyers.
It is worth mentioning that from the ratio of the purchase amount to the repayment amount during the period, Minsheng Bank (2.3006 times), Xinli Finance (2.2480 times), China Electric Power (1.7586 times), Tsingtao Brewery (1.6655 times) and Tasly (/kloc- Hua Bin (1.449 1 times), Juniper (1.4488 times), Sinochem International (1.4233 times) and other stocks were among the top gainers, and the purchase amount reached more than 1.4 times the repayment amount.
In this regard, some analysts said that the small repayment amount indicates that financiers are less divided on the future trend of related targets, and such stocks are more likely to get out of shock or even rise unilaterally.
Then, what is the performance of the secondary market of the above-mentioned underlying stocks favored by financiers? Statistics show that among the underlying stocks bought by net financing during the above-mentioned presentation period, * * * has 149 stocks that have risen since September, among which 28 stocks have risen by more than 10% since September, and Cao Meng Eco, Shangying Global, Xinli Finance, Three Gorges Water Conservancy, Shenhua Holdings, Gree Electric and Zheng Jun Group have increased by more than 20% during the period.