Let's discuss the reasons for the recent stock market crash and the market outlook.

Another black Monday! Under the influence of multiple factors such as weak global stock market and empty domestic macro-policy environment, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plummeted at the same time yesterday, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the three integer marks of 5 100, 5,000 and 4,900 in intraday trading, falling by 266.08 points, the biggest one-day drop in the past six months. Both cities fell by more than 5%, and nearly 90% of the trading varieties fell. Among them, the big blue chip China Ping An (60 13 18, stock bar) fell, while China Petroleum (60 1857, stock bar) hit a new low since its listing.

Yesterday, China Ping An issued a refinancing plan, which raised nearly 654.38+06 billion yuan, causing market panic. China Ping An closed the daily limit in the afternoon, and led insurance stocks such as China Life Insurance (60 1628) to plummet, hitting a recent low continuously. Financial stocks, steel, banks and brokerages all fell by more than 5%, while China Petroleum fell by 5.53% to 27.48 yuan, the lowest since its listing. China Shenhua (60 1088), a large-cap stock, also fell by more than 5%. Only 100 stocks in the two cities rose, and 1200 stocks fell. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges traded1321440,000 yuan and 715.32 million yuan respectively. The Shanghai Composite Index opened at 5 188.80, with the highest at 5,200.93 and the lowest at 489 1.28, and closed at 49 14.44, down 5. 14%, the biggest one-day drop since July 5, 2007. Shenzhen Component Index opened at 18 166.7 1 and closed at 172 10.93, down 5.08%.

Analysts pointed out that China Ping An's refinancing plan of nearly 654.38+060 billion yuan is conducive to the company's long-term development, but this year there are still many red chips waiting in line to return, and a number of central enterprises also plan to go public as a whole, which brings great pressure on the market funds. Therefore, the short-term trend of the market may not be optimistic.

cause analysis

Global weakness, profit taking and weak upward trend

Analysts said that there are three reasons for the recent continuous decline.

Yesterday, Wei Xu, strategic analyst of Shanghai Tianxiang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd. and other market participants analyzed that this rapid decline in the A-share market was caused by the "* * * vibration" of multiple uncertain factors in overseas and domestic environments.

Qiu, chief strategist of Tianxiang Investment, believes that the market has entered a new stage of adjustment and there has been a panic decline in intraday trading. The reasons for the recent continuous decline can be roughly divided into three aspects. First, it is affected by the weak global stock market. After the huge losses of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup in the fourth quarter, the subprime mortgage crisis further warmed up, which triggered the selling of financial and real estate stocks in the global market and led to the rapid decline of financial, real estate, petroleum and petrochemical sectors in the mainland.

Second, there is short-term profit-taking pressure in the cumulative profit-taking market in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded from 4800 points to 5500 points. Although the index rose by only 15%, a considerable number of stocks rose by more than 50%, a record high, and short-term profit-taking was reasonable.

Third, the increase of the deposit reserve ratio has increased the short-term fluctuation of the market. Judging from the current market, various factors at home and abroad are not clear, and the market lacks a clearly driven hot plate, so the shock pattern will continue in the short term.

Qian, chief analyst of CITIC Jintong Securities, pointed out that yesterday, the stock market plummeted under the joint action of the overseas market crash and China Ping An's refinancing plan of over 654.38+060 billion yuan. He believes that the decline was mainly caused by the heavy volume of financial stocks, and a large number of stocks followed suit. Our reporter Zhou Jiong

market outlook

The pattern of light stocks and heavy stocks can be expected.

Qian Xiangjin, chief analyst of CITIC Jintong Securities, suggested that investors should pay more attention to the market and individual stocks at present, and grasp the rhythm of switching hot spots in the market. The decline in the past few days is an adjustment on the way to the rise of the broader market, a development stage in the process of market hotspot rotation, and also lays the foundation for future market development.

Wang Rongkui, chief financial engineer of IWC, observed that the proportion of cash in institutions' current positions is still increasing substantially, and the rapid release of short chips will trigger a rebound. However, many stocks with less intraday selling pressure are adding positions, and the hot spots of venture capital and the aerospace military sector with expected restructuring and asset injection, as well as agricultural stocks and chemical stocks have all fallen back to the vicinity of the pre-institutional buying area. Wang Rongkui believes that in the crash, it can be clearly seen that some stocks are panic chips. Now there are a large number of accidentally injured stocks, and there are more investment opportunities. Still optimistic about the market before the Spring Festival.

Qiu, chief strategist of Tianxiang Investment, believes that the stock market will continue to slow down in the near future, and the top ten investment themes worthy of attention are Beijing Olympic Games, military industry, medical reform, energy conservation and emission reduction, 3G, central enterprise integration, RMB appreciation, price rise, venture capital appreciation and stock index futures. Our reporter Zhou Jiong

Europe entered a bear market and Asia-Pacific fell.

Comprehensive Xinhua News Agency As the Bush administration's economic stimulus plan failed to restore investors' confidence in the US economy, stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region fell yesterday, and the average price index of 225 Nikkei stocks in Tokyo, Japan closed at the lowest point in more than two years.

18 On June 8, US President George W. Bush proposed a tax reduction plan of14 billion to15 billion US dollars to stimulate US economic growth. However, this economic stimulus plan failed to alleviate investors' concerns that the US economy may fall into recession. New york stock market fell for the fourth consecutive trading day on June 5438+08.

At the close of yesterday, the average price index of 225 Nikkei stocks in Tokyo stock market closed at 13325.94, down 535.35 points or 3.86% from the previous trading day, the lowest closing point since 10 in 2005.

Compared with the previous trading day, the composite index of Seoul stock market in South Korea dropped by 5 1. 16 points to close at 1.683.56 points, a decrease of 2.95%.

The main stock index in Sydney, Australia fell 166.9 points, or 2.9%, to 5580.4 points.

The NZX-50 index of New Zealand stock market fell 17.45 points, or 0.48%, to close at 3646438+0 points.

The main stock index in Manila, Philippines fell 16 points, or 0.5%, to close at 3 152.30 points.

Compared with the previous trading day, the weighted index of China Taipei Stock Market dropped by 74.45 points to 865,438+065,438+00.20 points, with a decrease of 0.965,438+0%.

Also, as of last night 10, major European markets generally fell by 4% to 5.89%. Some analysts believe that European stock markets have entered a bear market.

The Sao Paulo stock market in Brazil fell by 6% in the early stage; Toronto stock market fell 3.75% in early trading; India fell earlier, closing down 7.41%; Singapore Straits Times Index closed down 6.03%.

Hang Seng Index Diarrhea 1383 points

Hong Kong's finance minister said that it was mainly affected by external factors and called on small investors to do what they can.

Affected by the decline in US stocks last Friday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index opened lower by more than 700 points yesterday, repeatedly falling. By the end of the afternoon, the Hang Seng Index had closed at 238 18, plunging 1383, a decrease of 5.49%.

Analysts said that the market was disappointed with the economic stimulus measures proposed by President Bush. Hong Kong stocks fell yesterday, and the decline in Hong Kong stocks widened in the afternoon. Many major stocks fell below the important mark and fell to 23770438+03 in late trading. In proportion, yesterday was "9? The biggest one-day decline since the "1 1" incident, and the state-owned enterprise index fell as high as 7.07%.

Yesterday, when Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang attended the public consultation on the Budget, dozens of people asked him why the stock market plummeted. Zeng Junhua said that he also noticed that the Hang Seng Index fluctuated quite a lot yesterday. "I mentioned before that there will be similar fluctuations in the stock market recently." Zeng Junhua lamented that yesterday's decline was quite large, mainly due to some external factors. He also said that at present, the tone of Hong Kong is still very good and can handle such fluctuations. However, for some small investors, I hope everyone can do what they can, be cautious and cautious, and make an appropriate risk budget.

Hong Pizheng, Chief Executive Officer of Standard Chartered Bank of Hong Kong, also cheered for the Hong Kong stock market, saying that Hong Kong's economic tone is good, the unemployment rate remains at a low level, and corporate profits are healthy. Therefore, it is estimated that Hong Kong's economic growth will reach 4.5% to 5% this year, much better than in the past decade.

News link

Associated Press: American recession can be tolerated in Asia.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the Associated Press quoted analysts as saying yesterday that due to the rising intra-regional trade and investment in Asia, the dependence of the Asian economy on the US economy has been greatly reduced, so Asia can withstand the US economic recession.

The report said that although the severe economic downturn in the United States will reduce the demand for Asian products, which will drag down the Asian economy to a certain extent, the rapidly growing middle class in Asia will form a strong demand for products in the region. In addition, the large-scale infrastructure construction in emerging Asian economies makes them have strong demand for commodities, which helps the Asian region to resist the negative impact of the US economic recession.

World Bank economist Hans? Timor said: "The American economy is no longer so important." According to the statistics of Lehman Brothers, except Japan, 43% of Asia's exports are still in Asia, much higher than 37% of 1995.

The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific predicts that 38 developing economies in Asia will grow by 7.8% in 2008, slightly lower than 8.3% in 2007.

Previously, the World Economic Outlook Report 2008 released by the World Bank believed that the economic vitality of developing countries would offset the adverse effects of the slowdown in economic growth in developed countries such as the United States, and predicted that the global GDP growth rate would slow down from 3.6% last year to 3.3%.

However, the report quoted JPMorgan Chase economist Rajiv? Malik said that the demand of industrial countries is still very important to Asia, and if the US economy falls into recession, the Asian economy will still decline to some extent.

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