1. 1. 1 Market characteristics of imported wool
(1) The import of raw wool has made a leap, and the cost of raw wool has increased. In 2007, the national planned import tariff quota for wool (including tops) was 367,000 tons, and the annual import was 332,500 tons, an increase of 10.94% over 2006 (299,700 tons), a record high. China is still the world's largest wool import, processing and consumption market.
⑵ Semi-fine wool and medium coarse wool are stable and firm. Compared with fine wool for clothing, the supply of semi-fine wool and medium-coarse wool is relatively stable, the market turnover is moderate, and the market for most varieties is stable and rising. Representative varieties are Australian semi-fine wool T423, T424, self-carding sliver 58S, 56S and 50S. In the first three quarters of 2007, the quotation did not change much, but increased in the fourth quarter, and the quotations of other varieties were basically the same.
⑶ Fine (combed) wool is highly sought after. Driven by the shortage of market resources, the enlarged demand for clothing wool and the high international wool price, in 2007, Zhongshi wool became the "favored" object of enterprises. In June, the market rose repeatedly from 5438+ 10, and there was a general "high consolidation and high shock" market throughout the year. According to the statistics of Nanjing wool market, from June 5438+0 to February 65438+2, 2007, the quoted supply of representative wool varieties (T55, T56 and T58) in the market decreased by 6.7% compared with that in 2006, and some varieties were even out of stock for a long time (such as 58). The total supply of Australian wool self-carding sliver with medium fineness of 60S-66S decreased by 35% compared with 2006. The average quotation of each variety is about 30% higher than that in 2006.
(4) Superfine wool continues to strengthen. In 2007, driven by natural consumption, fashion and high-grade upgrading, the superfine wool market strengthened and the quotation hit record highs. The average prices of the representative varieties, Aoyuanmao T54 and T54P, in February were 87,700 yuan /t and 95,000 yuan /t, respectively, which were 13.6% and11%higher than those in 2007 10. The quotation of Australian tops in February 70, 80, 90 and 100 were 108 100 yuan /t,18200 yuan /t and 126400 yuan/respectively. They rose by 18.9%, 16%, 12.9% and 6.7% respectively, with an average increase of 15%, and the market reached the highest level in recent years.
1. 1.2 characteristics of domestic wool market
In 2007. Driven by the "tight price" of Australian wool, the market price of China wool is also "rising". When the new wool came into the market in the first half of the year, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Jilin and other pastoral areas came to collect wool, and the purchase price of farm land generally increased by 30%-40% compared with 2006. In mid-July, at the wool auction held in Nanjing Wool Market in Zhangjiagang, the average fineness of merino wool provided by Baicheng County Sheep Breeding Farm in Xinjiang was 20.5μm(66S), which was sold at a high price of 76 yuan/kg for three consecutive years. In the second half of 2007, with the strength of international gross price, the national gross sales increased, and some high-quality fine wool that was reluctant to be sold in pastoral areas such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia were sold one after another, and the market was generally better than in previous years. Same as the supply and demand of raw wool, in 2007, most varieties of domestic wool tops also sold well, and the market strengthened one after another. At the end of February, the quotation of 60S, 64S and 66S gyroscopes reached 5 1 100 yuan /t, 63,500 yuan /t and 75,900 yuan /t respectively, up by 18.8%, 32.8% and 33.8% respectively compared with the beginning of the year. Based on the annual average price, the average prices of the three varieties in 2007 were 47,400 yuan /t, 57,600 yuan /t and 7 1700 yuan /t respectively. Compared with the average price in 2006, each variety increased by 28.65438 0%, 26.3% and 365438 0.6% respectively.
1. 1.3 reasons for the active market in China.
Generally speaking, the active trading in China market in 2007 was mainly due to the following reasons:
(1) With the extensive growth of the world economy, China's economy continues to develop steadily, and the increase of domestic demand and foreign trade demand drives the increase of wool consumption.
⑵ The natural, fashionable and high-grade consumption of wool textile market has been upgraded, and the demand for military clothing in China has expanded, increasing the supply of ultra-fine and medium-fine varieties.
(3) The international wool production has been depressed for six consecutive years, and the shrinking market supply has supported the market price increase.
(4) China's wool production and processing capacity has been further improved, and the demand has expanded. At the same time, the favorable environment of RMB appreciation has improved the enthusiasm of China enterprises to import wool.
5. Currency appreciation in major producing countries. In 2007, the average exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar increased by 65,438+02% over the previous year. Promote the total international dollar price to remain high.
Due to the tight commodity price of Australia-China fine wool, wool spinning enterprises have increased the use of coarse and semi-fine wool in New Zealand and other countries through product innovation and technological progress. At the same time, the newly-built Olympic venues in China have increased the demand for indoor wool products, increased the import of medium-coarse and semi-fine washed wool, and opened up the market.
1.2 wool market trend in 2008
In 2008, under the macro background of the spread of financial disaster in the United States and the global economic slowdown, consumer demand turned to a general decline. From 65438+ 10, the international Australian wool market is once again in a weak state. In the transactions around Sydney, Newcastle, Melbourne and fremantle, 2 18 182 bales of wool were organized successively. The average weekly supply is 52,046 packs. It is 7.45% higher than the weekly supply in September (48,434 bales) and 53.33% higher than the average weekly supply in June 2007 (54,979 bales). Although the market supply has greatly increased, the bidding intensity has declined due to weak demand, and the monthly average turnover rate is only 78.4%, which is nearly 10 percentage point lower than that of the previous month (88%).
Affected by the global situation, the wool market in China is also in a weak state. Under the pressure of "domestic troubles and foreign invasion" in the consumer market, the enthusiasm of enterprises to buy wool is not high, and the rhythm of dealers slows down. The hot spots of the kingpin are scattered. Some materials are valuable and have no market. Some varieties are even priceless. The market continues to be weak. In June+10, 2008, the average comprehensive quotation index of Nanjing market was 58.52 yuan/kg, which was-65,438+0% lower than that of September (59. 12 yuan/kg) and-6.34 yuan/kg lower than that of the same period in 2007. Take the clothes as an example. In June 2008, the top market continued to shrink sharply. The average quotations of representative varieties 66S, 64S and 60S are 6 1800 yuan /t, 57,600 yuan /t and 44,000 yuan /t respectively, which are-10% and-respectively lower than those in August. Compared with 2007, they were-18%, -7.5% and -3.7% respectively, and most of the conventional varieties have fallen back to the price level in 2006. In particular, the total domestic supply and land purchase price dropped significantly, which formed a huge contrast with 2007.
In a word, the world financial crisis has affected the global economic development, and the wool market is shrouded in gloom. Enterprises are struggling and the prospects are not optimistic. Wool is the livestock product with the biggest gap between supply and demand in China, and China has become one of the largest wool importers in the world. Because there is a big gap between domestic wool and developed countries in quality and price, China's wool production in the field of animal husbandry may be most affected after China's entry into WTO. As can be seen from the above analysis, many kinds of wool in China depend on imports. The turbulence of international economic situation and the change of exchange rate will inevitably lead to the fluctuation of wool product demand and wool price in the international market, and then lead to the fluctuation of wool market demand and price in China. The change of China market will strongly affect the production trend of China wool, and then affect the development of sheep industry.
At present, China implements quota management on wool import, with low wool tax rate within quota and high wool tax rate outside quota. According to WTO trade rules, the reduction of extra-quota tariffs is an inevitable trend, so imported wool has a more competitive advantage. From the future, the wool price in China market will inevitably be in line with the international market, which may lead to a sharp decline in wool production in China. As a domestic wool spinning enterprise, driven by interests, of course, it is willing to buy cheap wool, so domestic wool can only be at a disadvantage in the competition. Therefore, it can be imagined that if Australian wool occupies the China market on a large scale with its low price and good quality, once China wool industry collapses, foreign wool will have the conditions to completely monopolize the China market, and it is worth thinking twice whether China wool industry will reproduce the bad luck of soybean industry.
To solve this problem, we must start with the development of fine-wool sheep industry in China. On the one hand, the state should increase investment in the research and production of fine-wool sheep, strengthen the infrastructure construction of fine-wool sheep, improve wool quality and production efficiency, reduce production costs, and strive to improve the output and market competitiveness of China wool; On the other hand, in order to establish an information early warning mechanism for wool imports, we should pay attention to protecting the development of China's wool industry while utilizing foreign wool resources. The state should introduce preferential policies to encourage and support the wool industry, import wool at the same time, actively carry out domestic wool products export to earn foreign exchange, realize two-way trade and product resale, and form a virtuous circle of industrial economy. From the demand trend of the international market, textile wool is gradually developing towards fine wool and superfine wool, which shows that it is an inevitable choice to actively develop fine wool sheep. The main breeding bases of China fine-wool sheep are Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. After years of development, it has gained considerable strength in variety, output and scale, but compared with developed countries, there are still many problems. Let's take these two places as representatives to analyze the development of China fine-wool sheep.
3. 1 Development of Inner Mongolia Fine Wool Sheep
Inner Mongolia is an important animal husbandry base in China, especially fine-wool sheep with unique resource advantages and a long history of development. The number and fine wool yield of fine wool sheep rank first in China, and the fine wool yield accounts for more than 30% of the total national output, which has a relatively stable provenance base and a relatively sound service system and scientific and technological means.
3. 1. 1 development process of fine-wool sheep
The development of Inner Mongolia fine-wool sheep has experienced three great leaps: the first step is to transform coarse-wool sheep into homogeneous fine-wool sheep on a large scale from the late 1950s to the early 1980s, and to cultivate new fine-wool sheep varieties, so that the population quality, wool quality and yield of Inner Mongolia fine-wool sheep have been obviously improved. In the second step, from 1983 to 199 1, we mainly studied how to introduce the beneficial genes of Australian Merino sheep, and strived to gradually transform the old fine-wool sheep in Inner Mongolia into the new fine-wool sheep in China Merino style in a short time, so as to improve the wool yield and quality to a new level. After the transformation, the number of sheep of Australian descent in Inner Mongolia reached 5.66 million. Compared with the old fine-wool sheep before the introduction of blood, the individual net wool yield of these sheep increased by 0.49kg on average, and the net wool rate increased by 15. 16%. When the length of wool is increased by 0.7-2.7 cm, the density, curvature and oil perspiration of abdominal hair are obviously improved, and the comprehensive qualities such as strength, elongation and whiteness are greatly improved. The third step is to develop high-yield and high-quality fine-wool sheep after 1992, make full use of the breeding sheep and embryos of ultra-fine-wool sheep imported from Australia, and make full use of artificial insemination technology, semen dilution technology, cold breeding, embryo transfer and other technical means to cultivate fine-wool sheep breeding rams, so as to expand the utilization rate of excellent breeding rams. Improve the individual production performance of Inner Mongolia fine-wool sheep as much as possible, so that the production level of Inner Mongolia fine-wool sheep is close to or catch up with that of Australia and the United States.
3. 1.2 Current advantages and disadvantages
At present, there are about 6.5438+million fine-wool sheep in Inner Mongolia, accounting for about 50% of the total number of sheep, and the number of eight new fine-wool sheep varieties has reached more than 4.6 million, which are distributed in different regions of the whole region and have formed a relatively stable provenance base. The total output of fine wool is 37,400 t, accounting for 32% of the total output of fine wool in China, ranking first in the country. However, compared with the advanced level in the world, there is still a big gap. This is mainly manifested in the small number of high-quality fine-wool sheep, low fine-wool output, poor comprehensive quality of wool, and most of the raw materials needed for textile high-grade fabrics rely on imports; The number and yield of fine wool increase slowly, and the individual production performance of fine wool sheep is not high. The comprehensive qualities such as net wool rate, wool fineness, curvature and oil sweat are quite different from those of modern Australian Merino sheep. The industrialization of fine-wool sheep is lagging behind, and the breeding sheep and wool market is weak. The cultivation, breeding and improvement of new fine-wool sheep varieties can not be sustained, which leads to the degradation and mixing of the bred varieties.
3.2 Development of Xinjiang Fine Wool Sheep
3.2. 1 development status of fine-wool sheep
Xinjiang is the second largest wool producing area after Inner Mongolia and the hometown of fine-wool sheep. Since 1954, the first fine-wool sheep breed was successfully bred in China, and the fine-wool sheep industry has been one of the leading industries of animal husbandry in Xinjiang. During this period, China Merino sheep (Xinjiang type and Xinjiang military reclamation type) and China Merino sheep with multiple births, ultra-fine and high density have been cultivated successively by breeders of Xinjiang local and production and construction corps. From 65438 to 0992, Australian fine-wool sheep were introduced, and Xinji fine-wool sheep were bred through embryo transfer and seed selection. At present, Xinjiang fine-wool sheep breeding has been at the forefront of the country, and the varieties and types of fine-wool sheep, as well as the quality and quantity of breeding rams, are at the leading level in the country. In addition, Xinjiang also founded the first fine wool brand in China-"Sapar". In 2004, at the Nanjing wool market auction, a batch of high-quality wool was exported to Germany, creating a precedent for China's raw wool export. It is understood that Xinjiang produces about 89,000 tons of raw wool every year, including about 29,000 tons of fine-wool sheep and its improved wool, accounting for about 24% of the national market and 8% of the national textile wool. The total number of fine-wool sheep and the output of fine wool in Xinjiang are second only to Inner Mongolia, ranking second in the country. The number of core groups of high-quality fine-wool sheep has reached nearly 800 thousand.
3.2.2 Existing problems at present
Although great achievements have been made in fine wool sheep breeding and fine wool branding. However, from the reality, the industrial situation of Xinjiang fine-wool sheep is not optimistic. First of all, the quality and price of imported wool are facing severe challenges. Secondly, the industrial development shows a downward trend, which is mainly reflected in the following aspects: the traditional grazing and breeding methods are still the same, and some effective technical measures have not been taken. The scientific and technological content of the fine-wool sheep industry is still not high, and the fine-wool sheep industry in quite a few areas is in a state of being neglected and allowed to develop. In addition, in recent years, the price of mutton has risen and the price of international wool has fallen, which has seriously affected the improvement of fine-wool sheep and led to the decrease of its population. The quality of fine wool decreased and the output decreased; Furthermore, the gradual shrinkage of wool spinning industry in Xinjiang has also affected the enthusiasm of developing fine-wool sheep.
3.3 Development Direction of China Fine Wool Sheep
The above analysis shows that the development of China fine-wool sheep has made great achievements, but the situation is grim, and the difficulties it faces are both its own problems and the challenges brought by foreign wool markets. The output, quality and price of domestic wool can't meet the demand of China market. The turmoil in the international wool market and the contradiction between supply and demand will still exist for a long time, which will not only affect the production of wool spinning industry in China, but also affect the healthy development of fine-wool sheep industry.
The driving force for the development of sheep industry lies in economic benefits, which are reflected in the sales price of main products and the relationship between market supply and demand. Looking forward to the future, coarse wool and semi-fine wool sheep will develop in the direction of meat use, while fine wool and ultra-fine wool sheep will be more favored in the field of wool production. This is because people's demand for clothing is gradually developing in the direction of nature, comfort, lightness and softness. With the progress of textile technology, the finer the wool, the higher the textile value and the higher the added value of its products. Therefore, the demand of wool textile enterprises for wool below 2 1.5μm(66 count) has greatly increased. At present, the textile industry in China consumes 300,000-350,000 tons of wool. However, the total domestic annual output is only about1.2000 t, and the self-sufficiency rate is 1/3. Therefore, as long as the price and quality are competitive, the market demand potential of China fine-wool sheep is very considerable.
Adapting to the changes of wool market outside China, solving the dilemma of China's wool dependence on imports, and constantly improving and developing wool production are the only way out for China's fine-wool sheep industry, and also the long-term strategy for developing China's fine-wool sheep industry. Therefore, we should focus on the following tasks: First, rationally adjust the industrial structure of fine-wool sheep and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers. This is the basis to meet the market demand: second, to establish and improve the breeding system of fine-wool sheep, give full play to existing advantages, actively adopt advanced technology, and accelerate the improvement of the production performance of fine-wool sheep, which is the technical condition to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic wool market; Third, increase government and social support to help producers expand production scale. This is the driving force to improve the unfavorable situation of domestic wool; Fourth. Strengthen scientific management and strive to improve the efficiency and level of aquaculture. This is the premise of gradually solving the problem that China wool depends on imports. Fifth, standardizing market circulation and improving production and market service are the macro-guarantees to promote the orderly development of China fine-wool sheep. It is believed that the healthy development of fine-wool sheep industry in China is worth looking forward to as long as the understanding is in place and the measures are effective.