2012 March 14 Why did the market plummet?

It's strange not to fall. We saw that there was definitely a decline as early as four days ago, but we don't know where this day is. March 15 is still there. In the latest stage, Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by 14%, Shenzhen Stock Exchange rose by 2 1%, and small and medium-sized stocks rose by 24%. * * * It took 43 trading days, and the average daily increase was not significant. If it is the bottom, this increase is not like the bottom. At least, the stock index is not very strong, and it can be said that it has reached this point. However, the overall increase is quite large, with the average increase of A shares reaching 17%. Because according to the statistical results over the years, the average increase of each wave has reached 17%. Therefore, decline is inevitable.

As for the market outlook, we should look at it step by step, and we can't say that the position is still low. Why do you say that?

We know that net assets per share is the actual value per share. According to the principle of value for money, the reasonable price is that the price-net ratio (share price/net assets per share) is equal to 1. Please look at the following statistical results.

The highest point in 2007 (65438+1October 18), the average share price is 13.89, and the price-net ratio is 5.14;

The lowest point in 2008 (65438+1October 28th), the average share price is 4.45, and the price-net ratio is 1.6.

The highest point in 2009 (August 6th), the average share price was 1 1.34, and the price-net ratio was 4. 15.

The lowest point is 2010 (early July), the average share price is 1 1.03, and the price-net ratio is 3.7.

The highest point is 2010 (165438+10 month), the average share price is 17.47, and the P/B ratio is 5.7;

At present, the average share price is 13.8, and the price-net ratio is 4. 1, indicating that the current price-net ratio is close to the highest point in 2009.

Therefore, we can't be too optimistic about the current stock market. -Eagle Group