If we lengthen the A-share chart of the past 10 year, we can see that the 3000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index seem to be a geometric axis. Around the 3000-point dangerous peak, many parties and the air side have experienced countless battles on this bridgehead, but they have not completely conquered it.
In the eyes of market participants, 3000 points seems to be a recognized value axis. Near this point, no rational institutional investor dares to say that the valuation is too high or too low. Reasonable valuation and the game between long and short sides reach a balance at 3000 points.
The fund managers who are about to end in September and are ready to sprint in the fourth quarter have restored the logic and context of cracking the 3000-point game theory in their investment map to the Economic Observer reporter.
The game pressure is 3000 points.
"The continuous consolidation of the market stems from the three major factors of profit, interest rate and risk preference entering a phased equilibrium pattern." In an interview with reporters on September 20th, the investment director of cathay pacific fund bluntly said that the current balance pattern was not unexpected.
"The rebound has been going on for seven months since February this year, but after each game center exceeding 3,000 points, the pressure for the index to continue to rise has increased dramatically." As a practical fund manager, the investment director analyzed, "The first time was on April 13, when the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3 14 1, there was a significant adjustment; The second time was August 16, and the index hit 3 140, which continued to fall for more than 8 trading days. "
Tatan said that the game around 3000 points can be defined as an interval, rather than a strict quantitative standard. Because many retail investors and even institutional investors in the A-share market are technical investors, once the index exceeds 3,000 points, there will be psychological shock near this position, and large funds will often take concerted action, making this point an insurmountable psychological obstacle.
Even though the concept of PPP and some hot spots in the market are extremely active recently, the above-mentioned investment director seems very calm. "From a realistic point of view, there is really nothing exciting in the market worth spending a lot of money to chase.
Housing market may become a game variable.
In the early morning of September 22nd, the Federal Reserve suspended raising interest rates, but hinted that it might tighten monetary policy before the end of the year. The above expectations add more uncertainty to the A-share equilibrium game around 3000 points.
Theoretically, fund managers can make money by investing in the A-share market for a long time, but in the period when the stock market is too game-playing, they still need a little band operation skills to stand out in the ranking war at the end of the year. Now is the time.
When interviewed by reporters, a fund manager of Huaan Fund expressed pessimism about the uncertainty. "The current market, whether high or low, many macro factors are uncertain. The Fed's interest rate hike in the fourth quarter is a high probability event.
Since the beginning of this year, the real estate bubble caused by loose money in China has flooded to the limit, and the skyrocketing housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities have basically reached the limit. Although we can't guess when the house price will fall, we can't be sure that it won't go wrong, let alone predict that it will get bigger and bigger. It is also a kind of game wisdom to quit watching when everything is uncertain. The fund manager from financial engineering believes that due to the complexity of the financial system and the limitation of human cognitive ability, many situations are indistinguishable and the future is unpredictable. If you are not sure, you can quit watching.
In an interview with reporters, Morgan Fund Manager of Shanghai Investment Co., Ltd. also believes that the excessive rise in house prices will become an important variable in the process of 3,000-point game. He said, "Due to the rapid rise in housing prices, it is difficult to see the easing action of the central bank in September, and it is still mainly to implement project investment. In the context of high volatility, investors should reduce the volatility of their portfolios with diversified assets and increase the proportion of US dollars or US dollar-related assets on the basis of allocating domestic financial assets. "
Fund managers do not recommend 3000 points as the investment benchmark, and should pay more attention to the Hong Kong stock market. "The expectation of a US dollar interest rate hike has a negative impact on global liquidity. At present, the valuation of Hong Kong stock companies is still about 20% cheaper than that of A shares, which is at a historical low. The dollar-like attribute can avoid the risks that may be brought about by currency depreciation. It is expected that the opening of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will gradually converge the valuation difference between the two places, and it is recommended to pay moderate attention to Hong Kong stocks. "
Where are the opportunities to make money?
In the process of short-term market around 3000 points, CCB pays more attention to the excess alpha income brought by structural investment opportunities. "From a macro perspective, liquidity expectations are relatively consistent, the overall pattern is loose, and the short-term Fed rate hike is delayed; The macro-economy is cold and micro-hot, the decline in demand is relatively mild, and the supply side is overweight; There is an objective demand for the bottom, and attention is paid to the promotion of fiscal policies at home and abroad. Focus on cyclical products in the short term, and thematic investment opportunities such as PPP and state-owned enterprise reform are worthy of attention. "
Bosera Fund does not think that there is a lack of money-making effect under the game pattern of 3000 points. A researcher at Bosera said, "Recently, A-shares have been consolidating in a narrow range, and the index increase is relatively limited, but the differentiation of individual stocks is relatively significant, the PPP theme continues to perform, and the technology sector has rebounded. The normalization of strict external supervision and the passivation of structural mining may make the short-term risks of A shares outweigh the benefits. "
The researcher believes that investors should adopt a defensive style of medium and large-cap stocks and low valuation in operation, allocate defensive industries with high prosperity and policy drive, and pay attention to construction, food and beverage, and medicine.
Huaxia Fund holds a pessimistic view in the interview that the market index may face some pressure in the short term. "In the medium term, the market will still maintain range volatility, and the pattern of stock game is difficult to break easily. The bottoming factor of A shares still exists, and the downside risk of the market is limited. "
Looking ahead, Huaxia Fund will pay attention to the important time window in the fourth quarter, especially after the results of the US election in June 5438+065438+ 10 and the annual Central Economic Work Conference in February 65438+February, the market may change greatly. "High-dividend blue-chip stocks that are expected to grow steadily, leading stocks in some cyclical industries with reasonable valuations, and growth industries with determined demand growth, such as brand consumption, cultural and sports entertainment, education, medical health, environmental protection, and new energy vehicles, all have great investment opportunities."