History is extremely paradoxical. A meaningless war that lasted for six years caused unprecedented economic, social and political killings around the world, and almost reshaped everything about human beings today.
If we have the virtue of curiosity and refusal to forget, and are willing to learn even a little lesson from the tragic and absurd history, we must re-examine the history of World War II, and the results will definitely surprise people:
p>Only between 1940 and 1941, the leaders of the world's major powers, that is, the main participating countries in the war, made a series of domino-like decisions. These decisions are so important and so closely connected that if we cannot understand any one of them, we cannot understand all the remaining decisions, let alone all the causes and effects of World War II, and why the world is what it is today. That kind of look.
What is even more paradoxical is that almost all of these closely connected and urgent decisions are extremely absurd and unwise from today's perspective. It seems that all the major powers have joined forces to play a game of understatement. A fateful domino game.
Because no matter what their political system and decision-making mechanism were, they all had various information misjudgments and mutual misunderstandings at moments when their own internal and external difficulties were at stake, and in the end they all made incredible decisions. , a choice that should be avoided
The first domino card: the British House of Commons
Since 1902, all British Prime Ministers have also been members of the House of Commons
Why did Britain and France insist on a policy of appeasement towards Hitler? After Britain declared war on Germany, was it really true that it had been fighting alone and never wanted to surrender? Why was the famous Churchill suppressed in the country for so long, and why was he voted out of office after the war?
People should not forget that as early as 1920, the United Kingdom, which had a loan balance of 1.85 billion pounds and a total debt of 4.7 billion U.S. dollars to the United States, was already extremely weak. The former empire on which the sun never set was almost The comprehensive collapse of all pillar industries, the long-term economic recession and unemployment frenzy, the severe domestic political crisis and the huge disadvantages of the arms race have put us in an embarrassing situation where we can almost only resort to compromise and peace.
People should not forget that in the autumn of 1939, Chamberlain, the then British Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, received thousands of petition letters requesting peace talks to end the war. The British dream was that Hitler was forced by the economic crisis or The power struggle led to his downfall, and even when the German people realized Hitler's madness, they overthrew Hitler from within.
Even after Chamberlain resigned,
his influence and status in politics and the Conservative Party are still higher than Churchill
People should not forget that the successor to the British Empire There are two popular candidates for Prime Minister. Lord Halifax, the Foreign Secretary, has been the second-ranking figure in the cabinet since 1937. The preferred successors of Chamberlain, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth are all Halifax. What is ridiculous is that the Lord, who saw the embarrassment of Chamberlain's resignation, refused to take over as Prime Minister.
Churchill was regarded as a reactionary by left-wing politicians, while his own conservative party regarded him as an adventurer. The main responsibility for the German invasion of Denmark and Norway lies with Churchill, but it was Chamberlain who paid the political price.
Everyone understands that a country that controls the air can win. However, from the military's perspective, if the main force of the fighter force remains on the mainland and the strength of the Royal Navy is still there, Britain can still fight. ; And if most of the fighter squadrons are sent to France to participate in the war at the request of France, then Britain will be finished immediately after the fall of France.
The people who had suffered too many huge military defeats actually regarded the successful evacuation from Dunkirk as almost a victory. No one would have thought that Hitler would foolishly and unbelievably postpone the attack at a critical moment. As early as late May, the British Expeditionary Force had been regarded as non-existent by everyone in future political considerations.
Churchill used his countless eloquent and moving speeches to tell us the image of a majestic British who was as tough and unyielding as himself:
Churchill was a reactionary in the eyes of left-wing politicians,< /p>
The Conservative Party where he belongs thinks that he is an adventurer
In an extremely unfavorable strategic situation, Britain faced a powerful, victorious, and aggressive Germany, but it was lonely but persevering. , and has never wavered in his determination to fight to the end alone.
This myth is almost entirely shaped by Churchill’s eloquence. Unfortunately, the myth can only be used to encourage or deceive national morale, world public opinion and military morale, but it has never anything to do with the truth.
The second domino card: the Führer's Villa in Berghof, Germany
Why did Hitler open up three major battlefields on the Western Front, the Eastern Front, and the Mediterranean at the same time, making a circle that was tantamount to suicide? Proliferation war?
The strategic thinking of the German navy, which has always been at a disadvantage in the process of competing with the army and air force, is very different from Hitler. Hitler's intention was to win over Britain to destroy the Soviet Union and establish a new power in Eastern Europe. A huge empire, a showdown with the United States in the distant future. The navy, however, regarded the destruction of Britain as its main war goal. There was no place for the Soviet Union in their overall plan, but they hoped to dominate the Mediterranean with Spain, Italy and Vichy France and further weaken the British Empire.
All political institutions in Germany were overlapping and chaotic, and in this system, Hitler had a transcendent status. It's hard to say what "decisions" Hitler actually made in domestic affairs, because the so-called decisions were basically just scraps of words that government ministers or Nazi party leaders heard when they had lunch with him, and then used them to make big decisions. Tiger skin is regarded as "the order of the head of state".
But there is no doubt that Hitler set a general direction for domestic affairs before the war. In terms of diplomacy, from 1933 until he risked triggering a European war to attack Poland in 1939, every step could be taken It was said that the decision was made by Hitler himself.
Germany attacked Poland, and the battle ended within a month
On July 31, 1940, in the villa of the Führer Berghof, Hitler impassionedly declared to the generals present:
Once the Soviet Union was crushed, Britain's last hope would be shattered. Germany would become the master of Europe and the Balkans. I am determined to destroy the Soviet Union in this struggle. This will be in the spring of 1941. If we had gone to war in May 1941, we would have had five months to accomplish this task.
This madman and gambler has led Germany further and further in its pursuit of world hegemony, and the stakes it has placed are getting higher and higher, but there is no mechanism to stop this kind of gambling. If Germany cannot end the war, then the only way out for Hitler and the Nazi regime that helped him come to power is to continue gambling and take risks to launch the next war, striving to sweep across the Soviet Union like a hailstorm and make the world hold its breath. .
The third domino
The card is: Japanese Military Ministry
The Japanese Military Ministry is independent of the government and parliament and is directly responsible to the Emperor
Why was Japan unwilling to ally with Germany during the first war? After forming an alliance, why were they unwilling to join forces with the German army to attack the Soviet Union from both front and back?
The September 18th Incident not only had a huge impact on the entire East Asian landscape, but was also an important turning point in the history of East Asia. The postwar Far Eastern system based on the Washington System ended here.
Due to their interests in the Pacific, the United States and Britain firmly opposed Japan's policy of aggression against China. However, at home, the invasion of Northeast China and the establishment of the puppet Manchukuo was supported by both ordinary people and the ruling class. Militarism The propaganda made the citizens even more angry at the Western world for "bullying" and isolating Japan. This bullied status further stimulated anti-China and anti-Western sentiments in Japan.
What is ridiculous is that the only possible action to break the international isolation is to form an alliance with Germany. However, the Japanese government was worried that being too close to Nazi Germany would alienate Western democracies, so it tried its best to avoid incorporating the existing anti-Japanese treaty. Transform into a full alliance.
Since Japan cannot eliminate Western hostility and is unwilling to develop close relations with Germany, Japan's isolation will continue.
Japan had just fought a bitter battle with the Soviet Union in the summer of 1939 over a disputed territory between Manchukuo and Mongolia. This was the "Nomonhan Incident". As a result, Japan lost its troops. 17,000 people. The Japanese Navy has always firmly advocated marching south. The Army knew very well that the Soviet troops were far more numerous than the Japanese troops stationed in the north. Launching a war against the Soviet Union and gathering troops would not be achieved overnight.
The failure of the Battle of Nomenhan was of decisive significance to the entire decision-making process of the Japanese army
The shift from north to south was of decisive significance
The Japanese army wanted to wait and see what would happen. In August 1939, Fang actually heard the news that the Soviet Union and Germany had signed a non-aggression pact. Japan suddenly found that the only country in Europe with which it could be a friend actually shook hands with its northern rival. Koichi Kido, the emperor's most trusted adviser and recently appointed cabinet minister, "was shocked by this extremely treacherous act." The Japanese cabinet resigned en masse due to confusion "over a new situation that Europe could not understand."
Just as Japan later surprised Hitler by going to war against the United States, Germany's blitzkrieg against the Soviet Union also delighted Japan. However, the future oil embargo policy of the United States ultimately determined Japan's choice - although they knew very clearly that it would be crazy to go south to the Dutch East Indies and become enemies of ABCD (the United States, Britain, China, and the Netherlands) at the same time. A decision no less suicidal than Hitler's Soviet policy.
The fourth domino card: Piazza Venezia, Italy
He delivered the famous "balcony speech" to the crowd packed in the square
Pig With the same teammates, what has Italy held back Germany? Would it be better for Germany if it did not enter the war?
At the time, it seemed that Mussolini had made a sure-profit choice. Italy could gain an unearned share of the German military's success in Western Europe.
The main motivation for Italy's participation in the war was to establish its independent rights status within the Axis powers. But within a few months, this goal proved to be out of reach. Italy was simply unable to fight a war of its own, and soon became a handyman in the German conquest of Europe.
In 1939, Italy could produce only 1 million tons of coal and 2.4 million tons of steel per year. The UK's production capacity is 230 million tons of coal and 13.4 million tons of steel, while Germany's is 186 million tons of coal and 22.3 million tons of steel. Few Italians want to join this battle.
"Jumping like a clown in a doll's box" Mussolini addressed a crowd of 100,000 from the balcony of the Palazzo Venezia and received perhaps the most enthusiastic response since announcing the end of the war in Ethiopia. applause.
But this was because the crowd, caught like sheep among the propagandists of the Fascist Party, was ordered to cheer and applaud every sentence of the speech. The organized propagandists of the fascist party struggled to incite cheers from the hushed masses. At the end of the speech, the crowd dispersed in complete silence.
If Italy did not participate in the war, Germany would certainly not be able to impose any punitive measures on Italy. Although Mussolini has always regarded himself as Hitler's mentor, the violent Hitler has always insisted on not giving Mussolini any embarrassment on all occasions. However, Mussolini paranoidly believed that "a great country can be neutral for a long time." It would be embarrassing."
So, although Mussolini felt embarrassed about Italy's lack of achievements on the battlefield almost countless times, this did not prevent him from listing it as an ally when discussing conditions with Hitler. A lot of requirements.
Italy succeeded in making the war of the Axis powers develop in two unrelated directions, successfully and almost incredibly, time and time again provoking disastrous wars that were unnecessary or even had only side effects and successfully did so. When it was completely defeated, it not only aroused high tensions between Britain and the United States, but also forced Germany to disperse its troops in the Soviet Union to wipe its own behind.
The results of Italy’s countless self-humiliating battles and subsequent facts fully prove that if it can maintain goodwill and neutrality, Germany will have one less pig-like teammate, which will only be better for Germany. , Hitler would not even think that "Mussolini's stupid Greek campaign and the trouble the Italians caused us" were the main reasons for his failure in the Soviet Union.
The fifth domino card: the White House
October 28, 1938
Hu Shi presented the ambassador’s credentials to Roosevelt at the White House
Why does the United States know that there must be a war with Japan and Germany, but is still unwilling to participate in the war?
When Roosevelt was campaigning for his third term in Boston, he made a promise:
I will tell you parents what I have said over and over again. Promise: Your children will not be sent to foreign battlefields.
His speech defended the United States' consistent isolation policy and won him 83% of the public support. I don’t know how many Americans have always believed that the United States was deceived into participating in the world war by arms dealers and foreign financiers. These people wanted to seek personal gain from the Allied victory.
Although Churchill falsely praised the United States' declaration of war in public as "the most selfless act in the history of any nation," in private he did not view Roosevelt's hesitation, caution, and reluctance in the same way. of.
Before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, Roosevelt had been fighting against public opinion, which is almost worthless in a country's political logic.
The sixth domino card is the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Soviet Union
The very recent Politburo of the Central Committee of the Soviet Union
Why did Stalin never Believe that Germany would invade the Soviet Union?
Churchill later described Stalin as the most deceived country bumpkin in World War II." Churchill believed that if Stalin had believed his intelligence, the Soviet Union would not have suffered heavy losses. Even after the war, Churchill still did not He could clearly understand the reason why the intelligence he sent with good intentions was completely interpreted negatively in Moscow.
Churchill also did not know that the best sources of intelligence for the Soviet Union in Germany were the two communists. sympathizers. They had been providing high-quality intelligence to the Soviet Union, one was called Schulz-Poisen, code-named "Old Man", and the other was named Harnak, code-named "Old Man". Joining the Luftwaffe headquarters as officers, the Corsicans worked in the Ministry of Economic Affairs from 1935, and although they were both exposed and executed in 1942, they had almost access to Germany's most core secret intelligence before the war. /p>
Although there were countless early warnings from all aspects, and the details of the German offensive plan were conclusive, and even the date of the invasion was pointed out, Stalin still turned a deaf ear to it. Just 5 days before the attack began, the country turned a deaf ear. The People's Commissar of Security Merkurov forwarded to Stalin an intelligence message from a Soviet spy, which warned of imminent military action. Stalin's reply was: Go tell your intelligence officer at the Luftwaffe headquarters and say hell Go ahead. This isn't intelligence at all, it's disinformation
Official Soviet theory has always maintained that Hitler represents the last desperate counterattack of dying capitalism, which they believe will most likely be a world war. During the Great War, the imperialist countries formed an alliance to attack the Soviet Union from the east and west
Stalin destroyed the Great Wall
But after the Russian Civil War ended in 1921, the Soviet Union gave up. The original goal of "exporting the Bolshevik revolution and overthrowing world capitalism" was that Germany occupied an important place in the Soviet Union's post-war foreign relations because the 1922 Treaty of Rapallo repaired the rift in the relationship between the two countries. Economic cooperation and secret military cooperation have laid a good foundation.
Marshal Tukhachevsky has laid the foundation for the Soviet military strategic theory-the establishment of a modern army with advanced weapons capable of defending. This theory is based on the assumption that the war will start like this: the enemy will have the final say. An ultimatum was issued, war was officially declared, and then both sides carried out full-scale mobilization for many days or even weeks, followed by front-line battles along the border.
In addition, the Soviet Red Army's combat effectiveness dropped sharply due to the Great Purge. They did not have the strength to compete with Germany, and they had every reason to predict that the Soviet Union would not be able to complete preparations for war until 1942 or even later. In August 1939, the Soviet Union and Germany signed the most infamous treaty in history. "Soviet-German Non-Aggression Pact".
When Stalin learned about the disastrous results of the German invasion and the Soviet army, Stalin immediately collapsed - even declaring the beginning of the war to the country, he left it to Molotov and hid alone in a suburban villa. Here, he was almost in a state of nervous breakdown and felt highly nervous about the arrival of all his colleagues - he was actually afraid that they would arrest him!
The seventh domino card in the United States Congress
On the day after the Pearl Harbor incident, Roosevelt delivered the famous "National Humiliation" speech to members of the House and Senate in Congress. Japan declared war, but Roosevelt could not declare war on Japan before that.
Stalin was so desperate that he agreed to the United States stationing troops in the Soviet Union?
After Germany dominated the Balkans in 1941, what Churchill and Roosevelt feared most was that Germany would take advantage of its victory to attack North Africa and the Middle East, but Hitler chose to attack the Soviet Union. The most critical situation for the United States is in the Atlantic Ocean. If it intervenes in Japan, every minor incident in the Pacific means fewer ships available for use in the Atlantic Ocean.
U.S. Special Envoy Hopkins visited the Soviet Union at this time. The Soviet Union issued a request for assistance for 6,000 aircraft, 20,000 anti-aircraft guns, and complete sets of industrial equipment worth a total of about 50 million U.S. dollars. In addition, In addition, Stalin emphasized that the Soviet Union urgently needed anti-aircraft guns and large-caliber machine guns to defend the city, and urgently needed 1 million rifles. It also needed high-alkane aviation gasoline and aluminum materials used in manufacturing aircraft. He said,
Give us anti-aircraft guns and aluminum materials, and we can fight for three or four years.
Stalin even expressed despair that Britain and the Soviet Union alone could not defeat Germany without the help of the United States. If the United States was willing to send troops to participate in the war on any part of the Soviet front, then the American troops could be completely handed over to American generals. command.
The Eighth Domino Card Japanese Imperial Council
As a bloodline of Amaterasu, the Emperor is a human god existing in the world.
Even in the Imperial Palace You are not allowed to speak freely during the meeting
Why does Japan still declare war on the United States even though it knows it will lose? Was Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor really successful?
In 1941, Japan obtained the consent of Vichy France, and the number of troops stationed in Indochina reached 185,000. It was finally in a favorable position to cut off Chiang Kai-shek's supply route through the Burma Road, and opened the door to seizing the Dutch East India Company. oil channel. The United States thus began a complete oil embargo. This means that Japan's oil reserves can only last less than 2 years.
The navy and army are firmly opposed to negotiations with the United States. They insist on the "sacredness" of Japan's militaristic purpose of external expansion and insist that the blood of the Japanese officers and soldiers who died in the "China Incident" cannot be shed in vain. Gaining the moral high ground prevents the government from making any meaningful concessions to the United States.
The strong military has led almost the entire Japanese upper class to form a strange logic: no matter what the outcome of the war, its occurrence is inevitable, and Japan will use military gambling to break the suppression of the United States. As for gambling, Whether the result is a disaster, we can only accept it as fate dictates.
When Emperor Hirohito heard that the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor had been a complete success, and he emotionally stamped the imperial seal on the declaration of war, he probably did not know that the most critical aircraft carriers had all escaped the bombing because they were not in the harbor. The result is a punch, not a knockout.
However, for Japan, it was a complete failure if it did not knock the United States out in one fell swoop.
The ninth domino card is the German Reichstag Building
The current dome shape is called the "British Egg",
It is the name of the British architect Nobel Laureate. Newly revised in 1994 by Mann Forster
Is Hitler Mad? Why did it follow Japan in declaring war on the United States when it had no obligation to declare war?
While the German generals were overwhelmed by the Soviet army, the strategic goal had always been to defeat the Soviet Union first, then end the war on the Western Front, and do everything possible to avoid conflict with the United States. Hitler independently made a "no prior We sought advice from the High Command of the National Defense Forces, and as a result, the National Defense Forces were faced with the situation of conducting a two-front war under the most difficult conditions."
Looking at the entire history of World War II, there is nothing comparable to the madness, stupidity, and incomprehensible nature of this purely suicidal decision. Not only did Germany have no need or obligation to declare war on the United States, but avoiding conflict with the United States was what Hitler should have done, and in fact was, to avoid at all costs.
However, on December 11, 1942, Hitler actually announced to the world that Germany, like Italy and Japan, was forced to "fight in self-defense, to maintain their respective empires, and to safeguard the freedom and freedom of their peoples." Independence, while fighting against the United States of America.”
The 10th domino card German SS
The notorious Gestapo leader Heinrich Himmler
Hitler massacred the Jews in addition to racism Apart from consideration, is there any military purpose?
No matter how absurd or wrong Hitler’s massacres of the Jews later proved to be, we can still recognize a certain logic behind them, but no matter how logical the path to genocide seemed at the time ——The pathological and demonic anti-Semitic ideology that is the root cause of the genocide has no rationality in itself.
But this decision is basically a war decision on another level. In the Nazi mind, the determination to launch a life-and-death war against the Jews was an integral part of their ongoing military struggle, rather than being independent and unrelated to each other.
Collapse Endgame
The development of history could have been completely different.
The British government may seek peace talks with Hitler in May 1940. Rather than going to war with the Soviet Union, the German leadership might focus its forces on attacking the Mediterranean and North African theaters.
Japan can decide to withdraw from the Chinese battlefield, which is extremely destructive to them, and not risk going south.
Mussolini might have waited before deciding whether to join the war, at least to avoid disaster in Greece at all costs.
Roosevelt might have sided with the isolationists rather than take the political risk of helping Britain and leading the United States to the brink of war.
Stalin might also have heeded the numerous warning signs and better prepared his country to meet a German attack.
Japan can attack the Soviet Union from the east while Germany attacks the Soviet hinterland from the west.
Hitler might have been able to restrain himself from declaring war on the United States, an enemy he had no idea how to defeat.
These are all theoretically feasible alternatives. Any one of them can change the course of history. On the basis of this assumption, we can further analyze various hypothetical scenarios - this is a harmless but meaningless thinking game, completely different from the real "what happened" and "why" of historical research. problem.
Under the ten dominoes that collapsed, not only were human ambitions, greed and smart-alecky stupidity buried, but also his extremely wise but worrying comparison and comparison of the political structures of the five countries of Britain, the United States, Japan, Germany and Russia. Thinking, and following the example of Posibia's realistic and political concerns, is particularly valuable for Chinese people. After all, because of the completely different political logics, it is often difficult for Chinese people to understand the common political decision-making process in European and American countries, and it is easier to completely misunderstand it. Read the entire history of World War II.