The black swan effect is a psychological term, which means that an extremely unlikely event actually happens again. The black swan effect is often used to describe that some seemingly ordinary events suddenly produce surprising results in financial markets.
Black swan effect Source:
/kloc-before Europeans discovered Australia in the 0 th and 8 th centuries, they always thought that all swans were white, so in the eyes of Europeans at that time, swans could not be white. It was not until Europeans discovered Australia and saw the local black swan that they discovered their ignorance. This incident proves that people's cognition is limited: although you have observed millions of swans before you come to the conclusion that "all swans are white", you only need one more discovery to completely overthrow it.
Example:
Titanic
1909 On March 3 1 day, the Titanic started construction at Hanand Wolf Shipyard in Belfast, the largest city in Northern Ireland. At that time, the largest luxury passenger ship in the world was called "unsinkable dream passenger ship". It sailed from Southampton, England to new york on April 19 12, but on the fourth night of its maiden voyage, it sank because it hit an iceberg in the North Atlantic, and 1500 people were buried at the bottom of the sea, making it the most famous shipwreck so far.
Subprime loan storm
In the 20 years after 1990s, major financial institutions on Wall Street hired mathematics talents from top universities in the United States and compiled computerized automatic trading systems for the stock market. Theoretically, the probability of computer crash is "only once every 654.38+ million years". However, in the summer of 2008, due to the sudden changes in the subprime mortgage market, the value of Goldman Sachs' "global allocation fund" traded by computer shrank by 30% in a week, and the loss was as high as $654.38+04 billion. ?
Aier ophthalmology encounters black swan
For many myopia patients, corneal myopia surgery is their best hope to restore normal vision. 2065438+In February 2002, a well-known ophthalmologist in Taiwan Province Province said that because the eyesight of several patients who had done this kind of surgery in their early years had obviously decreased, they would not do corneal myopia surgery for them in the future. Although the incident happened in Taiwan Province province, the news soon spread to the mainland. As a result, the share price of Aier Ophthalmology, a listed company on the GEM, fell sharply.
The black swan pecked at the fund's heavy stocks.
Since 20 12, many partial-stock funds have repeatedly used heavy stocks to lose, and at the same time, they have suffered from the frequent pecking of heavy stocks by "black swans". "Black Swan" patronized and exposed Health Yuan's use of waste oil pharmaceuticals, and its share price plummeted, and dozens of holding funds suffered heavy losses. "Black Swan" is the favorite food, beverage and medicine of fund managers in recent years.
Funds like Health Yuan, Changyu A, Yili, Bright Dairy, Gu Yue Longshan, etc. The insiders believe that in recent years, the safety risks of food, beverage and medicine have entered an outbreak period, and fund managers should increase the risk control of investment in such industries and reduce the heavy losses caused by the "Black Swan" incident to fund assets.
The existence of black swan implies unpredictable major rare events. It was unexpected, but it changed everything. However, people always turn a blind eye and are used to explaining these unexpected major shocks with their limited life experience and fragile beliefs, which are finally defeated by reality.
Almost all important things can't escape the influence of the black swan effect. The modern world is dominated by the black swan. Black swans exist in all fields.
I hope it helps you.