Stock trading is like driving a car, and there is a groping process. If you drive, you need a coach to teach you, a driving lesson, and an exam before you can get a driver's license and drive on the road.
But stock trading is a self-study process. If you teach yourself, you will inevitably take detours, lose money and pay tuition fees. Ordinary people have less money, and the stock market is full of risks. The tuition fees to be paid are too much for ordinary people to bear.
Therefore, the stock market is risky and needs to be cautious when entering the market. Ordinary people use spare money for stock trading, which will affect their lives. But in fact, ordinary people often take money from their own wages and living expenses, do not speculate, and have insufficient psychological quality, which will inevitably lead to losses. Five reasons to stay away from the stock market, I advise you not to speculate.
one
Because my core point is to advise everyone to stay away from the stock market and not to speculate in stocks. I also give this advice to all my relatives and friends.
I'm not responsible for letting you make billions less on empty space.
If you have the following beliefs, for example, after the epidemic, the whole people will stock up, which will lead to a high tide. For example, after the epidemic, the government will save the market and release water to maintain stability. For example, the China stock market is doomed to grow from now on, and so on. Then I wish you a complete change in the fate of being a denominator.
It seems that the market is still making great strides these days. Maybe some people are so ambitious that they can't wait to bet all their possessions on the pursuit of victory. They plan to enjoy loneliness while getting rich easily. Then I hope you won't be disturbed by me, because I'm afraid to wake your dream.
two
Since you are still willing to continue reading, I will divide it into two parts and briefly sort out my personal views:
The first part, why do I advise you to stay away from the stock market and not to speculate, that is, what are the reasons for not speculating easily?
The second part, if someone insists on stock trading, what kind of person, or under what circumstances, do I think I can stock trading?
Anyway, I suggest you not to speculate in stocks for the following five reasons:
Reason one: it is too difficult to make money in the stock market, or the probability of success in stock trading is too low.
If everyone can make money easily, I still advise you not to go to the stock market, then I am not sick, but if you already know that it is difficult for everyone to make money in the stock market, but you firmly believe that you will be the best lucky one, hehe, I am definitely not sick.
Even if you have really made money in stock trading so far, or if your friends and relatives who know the details have really made money, I want to tell you that this is a lucky deviation, which does not change the fact that the probability of success in stock trading is too low, and this nakedness cannot be made more public.
Everything is probability. If you want to do business, it is estimated that there is only a 10% chance of winning. Aside from business feelings, is this business worth doing?
Regardless of whether the usual saying of "one rise, two draws and seven losses" in the stock market is true or not, because even if you have heard it many times, you will imply that the proportion of making money should be far more than 10%. After all, this statement can't provide you with convincing statistics, so I created a very simple and effective algorithm:
Divide the total duration of your past stock trading into ten shares on average and see how many shares have made money. For example, if you have been trading stocks for ten years or ten months, you will calculate the profit and loss every year or every month, from the beginning of the schedule to the end of the period. You don't need to calculate the specific profit and loss, just look at how many years or months you have earned as a whole.
For example, ten years of stock trading has only two years to make money, which is 20%. For example, 10 month is only 1 month, and the change of funds from the beginning of the month to the end of the month is positive, that is, 10%. So to calculate the success rate of your stock trading to make money, I think this is the only algorithm that can't fool yourself.
If you are in the spirit of science and are willing to pursue more accurate results, you can divide it into more than 20 copies. For example, you have been trading stocks for one year, and then compare the trading records with the historical K-line to see how many days you made money that day in the past 240 trading days, that is, how many days you made money that day, and then see how high this ratio is.
If you are very rigorous, you can also increase the number of samples, such as pulling ten friends who are trading stocks, averaging the ratio data obtained by everyone and seeing the final result.
According to the length of stock trading time, calculate the proportion of making money in the current period, which can almost be equivalent to the success rate of making money in stock trading.
The longer the time span, the finer the division, and the more samples composed of different people, the more accurate the data will naturally be.
Maybe no one has mentioned this before, but I am willing to guarantee it with a fake master's degree in economics. This algorithm can withstand various model tests and theoretical scrutiny.
If you still think this algorithm is unreasonable or unscientific, for example, you will say that 1 month may make up for1month's loss, then you should consider that the opposite situation also exists;
For example, if you think that stock trading is a continuous process, you can't separate it like this. I'm afraid it's hard to explain to you. I can only say that you are deceiving yourself, just like an ostrich burying its head in the sand. It is better to directly lie to yourself that the losses in the stock market are all small money, and the gains are all big money.
If you happen to get a high ratio, it's either because you haven't been trading stocks long enough, or please divide the time period into smaller ones and recalculate.
If your success rate is really not high, but you think the data can only represent the past, then I dare say that you were as optimistic as you are now.
If there are still people who think that even if the probability of success in stock trading is low, it is still a good choice to get rid of poverty and get rich, then I simply suggest that you learn the two-color ball, which is short, flat and fast, and there is no technical threshold.
Of course, most investors are actually very aware that it is really too difficult to make money in the stock market, and very few people really make money. Then why?
I find that few people think about this problem.
I tried to put forward such a point: the law of conservation of value.
For example, if you invest in stocks, you should invest money, time in research and time in trading. Apart from other things, what is the original value of these investments? In fact, it is the principal plus interest plus your basic salary, that's all.
Many people think that the stock market relies on technology, experience and wisdom to make money, that is, relying on their own stock trading skills to increase the original investment. This is actually an illusion.
This illusion makes us mistakenly think that in the process of stock trading, we have made efforts and created value, and firmly believe that this effort and value will eventually be transformed into the benefits of stock trading.
Even if you add some luck, you will think that luck itself should have its value, which is reflected in the income of stock trading.
In fact, the so-called stock trading technology is not a valuable skill.
The salary of a worker who drives an excavator should be higher than the salary you should get from full-time stock trading. At first glance, you may not be satisfied. Why not ask if there are any companies or friends who are willing to pay 5,000 yuan a month for his full-time stock trading?
Please note that the wages of excavator workers are determined by market supply and demand.
Many people who buy stocks think that their time, energy, skills and experience are valuable in themselves and should be able to create wealth, that is, make money between buying and selling. As we all know, ordinary stock traders have no market demand at all, so how can they be valuable?
The so-called professionals, such as a stock god, trader and firm offer you see on the online media, will say that their skills and work will always be valuable. Some awesome people can be said to be annual salary. Does this mean that their stock trading skills and experience are really valuable?
Let the market demand decide. Let me ask you, how much annual salary are you willing to spend now and hire a god you admire most to help you stock?
Think it over before you answer.
The annual salary you are willing to pay is the value of his stock trading skills and work, but of course it does not include his personal brand and influence value.
If the principal of your investment in the stock market is1000000, maybe its value will be higher for you, and I only have100000. I can't use it all to pay his salary. Then his value to me will probably not exceed 50 thousand yuan a year.
Of course, I can also raise 500 million yuan to set up a fund. I may offer him an annual salary of10 million to make a deal, and then I will collect the fund management fee.
The same person also uses his experience and skills in stock trading, and the value evaluation given by different demanders can be quite different. Please note that I want to explain:
The more principal you invest in the stock market, the more money you will naturally think you can make, because you will continue to pay higher wages to the people who help you buy stocks. In reality, the person who helps you in stock trading is yourself, and you are constantly raising your value, giving yourself the illusion that you can create more value in the process of stock trading.
On the contrary, if your principal is only 1000 yuan, you will naturally ignore the true value of your stock trading skills, which is infinitely close to zero.
Back to my law of conservation of value: because we didn't create real value through stock trading, referring to the law of conservation of energy, our normal profit in the stock market should be the principal plus interest, the salary is zero, and the transaction cost and sharing platform cost should be subtracted.
This is the root of "one profit, two draws and seven losses".
Reason 2: Stock trading itself has no value, or its value is very limited.
Just now I put forward the law of conservation of value to try to explain why it is difficult for the stock market to make money. The second reason why I advise you not to speculate is that the stock market itself has no value, or its value is very limited. We should devote our limited life to more valuable and meaningful work.
Even if you make money in the stock market, the process of making money does not create value.
Because stock trading is neither a consumption behavior, nor a production behavior, nor an indirect investment behavior.
You bought shares in Maotai today. Maotai didn't use your capital, and your profit didn't come from the income of Maotai shareholders.
I know this view will inevitably cause controversy. If we insist on getting to the bottom of it, no matter what different people think, I think it is a direct or indirect admission that four people who live in solitude are creating GDP by playing mahjong together.
Not to mention losing money is also contributing to the development of the securities industry and listed companies, or helping the CSRC and securities companies to support their employees. Even if I agree with this statement, is this really the meaning you pursue in stock trading?
Reason 3: Even if you earn in the short term, you will lose in the long term, or you will lose sooner or later.
There must be someone who doesn't want to believe this.
There is only one kind of people who make money in the stock market, that is, those who leave for safety. In layman's terms, it is those who quit gambling and change careers.
There is a law called regression average. I won't explain it any more. If you believe that most people in the stock market are losing money, you will become the majority sooner or later.
Some people will say that as long as I earn enough money, I will stay away from the stock market and never look back, or I will gradually withdraw the income and the principal, so that I can make a stable profit in the future. I can only say that you don't know enough about your own humanity.
Reason 4: The cost of stock trading is high, but the probability of making money is small.
The costs I refer to include, but are not limited to, the learning cost you pay for stock trading, the energy you need to manage your account, the health loss caused by long-term study of stocks, the time you spend with your family and friends, the opportunity cost, psychological stress, mood swings, capital investment, etc.
You may say that I have to pay these costs for other jobs or starting a business. My point of view is that if I can't make money from stock trading, all these costs are paid for nothing and have no value, but it is always more valuable to work hard in other jobs, including starting a business. Even if I fail, its meaning is completely different from that of stock trading.
Many people ignore the various costs behind stock trading and mistakenly think that stock trading is a very easy way to make money.
In fact, stock trading is a very low cost performance or return on investment ratio, especially for young people with high quality and ability. In other words, the opportunity cost of the retired grandmother's stock trading can be ignored, and I don't even object. Besides, she has no other choice. She can enrich her life and prevent Alzheimer's disease.
Reason 5: Even if stocks make money, there are side effects and sequelae.
Profiting from the stock market will give you the illusion that stock trading is faster and easier than other jobs, which will lead you to get used to and tend to engage in occupations that are divorced from reality, more direct and faster, instead of easily settling down and focusing on those jobs that seem to be difficult to make progress and slow to get results. Frankly speaking, stock trading often makes people impetuous and eager for quick success.
On the other hand, after making money in stock trading, we will continue to be greedy. If you win money at 10 yuan's gambling table, you will be eager to play a game of 50 yuan's, and in the end, greed is often an endless abyss.
I said, "Even if you make money from stock trading", this is already a better result than losing money, and the side effects and sequelae of making money from stock trading also follow.
three
Because the space for reason one is a little open, the last four reasons are over.
Maybe many people will think that I am alarmist, grandstanding, or just an armchair strategist. Indeed, I also admit that my qualifications, experience, level and level are not enough to show my right to speak and persuasiveness, but please try to understand my point of view.
I really hope to persuade more people to stay away from the stock market, not to speculate in stocks, and choose more valuable and meaningful work and life.
If you have made money from stock trading, I guess it is useless to give any advice. As I said in reason 5 above, you have embarked on the road of becoming impetuous and greedy.
In addition, I don't know whether you really make money by making money, and whether you have achieved overall profit since you traded stocks. If you are a full-time stock trader, I suggest deducting your accumulated salary, including interest on funds, to see if you are still profitable.
And if you are surprised by the probability calculated according to the algorithm I mentioned in the above reason 1, that is undoubtedly the value of writing this diary. The advice I can give you is: don't deceive yourself, don't deceive yourself, don't deceive yourself.
four
If you ignore my advice and think that what I say is rubbish, or that five reasons are untenable and you don't want to stock, then in my opinion, who or under what circumstances can stock?
I also listed the following five situations in which stocks can be traded;
Case 1: Those who do not affect their normal life and work can be dismissed.
What is "guarantee"? It means that even if you lose 100%, it won't affect you. You can only accept 90% of the loss, because you will still want to rely on that 10%, which will definitely make you feel funny, but please believe that if you can't control your position according to this standard, you will still be among the objects I advise you not to speculate.
What is "normal" means that your work and life are hardly affected by stock trading, which is of course an extremely idealistic state, but if you can feel that your work and life have deviated from the state before stock trading because of stock trading, then with all due respect, you are also among those who are not suitable for stock trading.
Situation 2: Just playing with tickets, having fun and speculating.
To put it bluntly, if you really don't expect to make money through stock trading, then fry it.
If ups and downs are just games for you, you can really treat profit and loss as entertainment. Congratulations, you are either a super-rich person or an expert, but I have never seen either investor with my own eyes.
Situation 3: People who regard stock trading as gambling can speculate.
Anyone who can always treat stock trading as gambling can speculate. Since it is gambling, we should be prepared to lose at any time.
The fear is that you don't think you are gambling, or you know you are gambling, but you think you will only win and not lose.
There is also an interesting gambler logic: because I have lost too much for too long, I will win it back sooner or later.
Successful gamblers are only those who are always lucky.
Therefore, this article can also be put another way: If you think your life is good, you can fire it.
Situation 4: If you really have an investment mentality, you can speculate.
You are not Buffett. Don't think that holding a stock for a long time is an investment, whether it is active or passive.
Strictly speaking, as long as you are trading stocks, there is no such thing as investment.
The investment I suggest is to choose and trust a professional organization or a team of professionals to help you in stock trading. Although you are trading stocks, you are not investing in the stocks in your account.
You are investing in this organization or this team to help you make money.
If you make money, it means that you are right to invest in them. Again, you invested in this institution, not the stock market.
The reason why you do this is because you can save the learning cost, time and energy cost and opportunity cost of stock trading, and theoretically you can improve the probability of making money in the end.
However, the prerequisite for you to make this investment choice is not only to have a suitable professional object to trust, but also to actively reduce the expected rate of return on investment, such as the annualized rate of return within 10%. I'm just saying, for example, I know that this is unrealistic for many people who speculate in stocks, even though their urgent goal is still to turn losses.
Situation 5: If you are really a professional, you can be fired.
If your job and major are stock trading, what else can you do without stock trading? Either change your career or leave it to fate.
If the above five situations that I think can be used for stock trading don't apply to you, and you even think that I'm just repeating the reasons for staying away from the stock market in this way, then I tell you that you have at least understood my purpose: to advise everyone not to stock trading.
five
Finally, a digression is also the reason for writing this diary today.
This morning, I just got up, and a friend who didn't know me very well sent me a WeChat. First, he asked me how I was getting along in Hubei. Then we talked about the domestic economic situation from the epidemic prospect, and finally fell into a specific problem. He asked me, do you think the stock market will go up again?
I really don't know this, he said. Does your securities company have no internal judgment?
I suddenly found it a little difficult to answer him.
Last year, I was a little idle, and on impulse, I entered the qualification examination for securities and funds, and I got five exams in one exam. It took me fifty days before and after, and finally I survived the risk. I found a brokerage firm with my brother as an executive, and I hung up a part-time job with a brokerage firm without a basic salary. I plan to get ready, waiting for someone in my circle of friends to want to go public, raise funds or set up a fund company.
I am already a securities broker in name, but I am not even a rookie in the securities industry, let alone a professional. However, some unclear friends thought that I was a securities company, and wished that I could not control the stock market immediately, and broke all kinds of inside information in time to lead everyone to get rich quickly and reach the peak of their lives.
I thought to myself, they don't understand the operation mode of securities companies. If securities companies can make money by speculating their own stocks, where can they spare time to serve you?
Now someone really comes to consult modestly, asking me to judge the future market trend, and lending me a few courage, I dare not talk nonsense.
More importantly, investors actually know that even if their judgment on market ups and downs is correct, they may not be able to make money in practice.
However, the problem of friends' souls today gave me the idea of writing my own views on stock trading.
You can think about it, but I seem to have only one view on stock trading, which is to advise everyone to stay away from the stock market and not to speculate.
six
In 2006, he entered the stock market and bowed his head at 20 13.
Besides, no one loses money in stock trading, at least at first, and there is no way in the world to make a profit without losing money.
Because the amount of funds is small, once ordinary people suffer losses, it is a big thing, it is difficult to turn over, and the ideological pressure is enormous.
Therefore, at the beginning, I can only use my spare money to learn stock trading. Besides, not all the spare money. You can only study and try with a small amount of spare money. If all the spare money you have invested is gone and it doesn't affect your life, you can try it.
Therefore, resolutely don't use the pension money, the money to buy a house, the money to pay tuition fees, and the money for living to invest in stocks. Don't borrow money for stock trading.