On September 19, the central bank's website published an article entitled "Promote the optimization of debt structure and support the development of the real economy". The article is included in the "financial development with Chinese characteristics" column, is the central bank recently published the third in a series of articles, the previous two were "practicing political, people's nature, enhance the professionalism, take the road of financial development with Chinese characteristics," "innovation and improve the monetary policy control, and to promote the economy to operate in a reasonable range" (hereinafter referred to as the central bank articles). central bank articles).
The authors of the three articles are the Department of Investigation and Statistics of the Central Bank, the Secretary Bureau of the Office of the Financial Commission, and the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank. According to the reporter, the three articles release the following policy signals:
1, to "always be assured that" sense of responsibility, adhere to the bottom line thinking, "carpet" check financial risks
The report of the 19th Party Congress puts forward that, in order to build a moderately prosperous society in all aspects, we must win the three major battles, one of the important elements is to prevent and resolve major financial risks. Previously, the Financial Stability Report (2019) disclosed the timetable for the battle to prevent and resolve financial risks, showing that 2020 is the closing year of the battle, striving to gradually transition from the basic completion of the risk of treating the symptoms to treating the root cause, and completing the established tasks of the battle. After the financial risk battle finale, how to promote the relevant work in the future will be the focus.
"Finance is an industry that operates and manages risks, comes with a risk gene, and preventing and resolving financial risks is always on the road." The central bank article said.
The central bank article pointed out that the current economic downward pressure has increased, regional, industry and enterprise risks to the financial system. We should take the sense of responsibility of "not rest assured at all times", adhere to the bottom line thinking, "carpet" check financial risks, strengthen the monitoring of key risks, constantly improve the response plan, accelerate the disposal of non-performing assets, support commercial banks to replenish capital, orderly disposal of key areas of risk, crack down on illegal financial activities, and severely crack down on illegal financial activities. The government has also cracked down on illegal financial activities, closely guarded against external risk shocks, and maintained the sound operation of the financial market.
2, the establishment of the central bank independent financial budget management system, to achieve a healthy and sustainable balance sheet
Central bank article, said the establishment of the central bank independent financial budget management system, to achieve a healthy and sustainable balance sheet, to ensure that the country's macro-control objectives and the realization of financial stability.
Central bank governor Yi Gang's December 2020 article, "Building a Modern Central Banking System," explains this, namely: the central bank to achieve the goal of currency stability, the need to regulate the behavior of the banking system's money creation in a market-oriented manner, provided that the central bank can maintain the health of the balance sheet sustainable, and to this end, it is necessary to implement the independent central bank's financial and budgetary management system. Prevent the monetization of fiscal deficits, in the financial and central bank two "money bags" between the "firewall", at the same time to prevent the central bank balance sheet to assume corporate credit risk, and ultimately affect the yuan credit.
In recent years, the market has been circulating the monetization of fiscal deficits and other proposals, the central bank's statement means that the monetization of fiscal deficits is not in the central bank's options.
3, since 2018, the central bank 13 cuts, the release of long-term funds 10.8 trillion
The central bank article disclosed that since 2018, the People's Bank of China **** 13 cuts in the reserve requirement ratio, the release of long-term funds of 10.8 trillion yuan, to support the financial institutions to increase the support of credit to the real economy. Stretching the time, across the cycle to maintain the M2 and social financing growth rate with the nominal economic growth rate basically match, rather than every year or even quarter to match. 2018-2021, China's M2 growth rate of 9% on average, and the average growth rate of nominal GDP over the same period of 8.3% roughly comparable to the strength of financial support for the real economy to maintain a solid, but also to avoid the big water irrigation, and macro leverage ratio is also basically stable.
According to the reporter's statistics, the central bank released funds of 3.65 trillion yuan in 2018 with four cuts, 2.7 trillion yuan with three cuts in 2019, 1.75 trillion yuan with three cuts in 2020, 2.2 trillion yuan with two cuts in 2021, and 530 billion yuan with one cut in 2022, according to the reporter's statistics.
Central bank data show that as of now, the average legal reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.1 percent, 6.8 percentage points lower than at the beginning of 2018. Among them, large institutions, medium-sized institutions and small institutions were 9.75 percent, 7.75 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
4, the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, the overall stability, there is no sustained unilateral appreciation or depreciation
Recently, the RMB exchange rate "breaks through 7" has caused widespread concern in the market. The central bank article pointed out that in recent years, the renminbi exchange rate by the market to determine, maintain flexibility, play the function of regulating the macro-economy and balance of payments automatic stabilizer, better promote the internal and external balance.
"The renminbi exchange rate fluctuated in both directions and was generally stable, with no sustained unilateral appreciation or depreciation.2022 The CFETS renminbi exchange rate index at the end of August stood at 101.62, appreciating by 7.1 percent from the beginning of 2018, which is also matched with China's economy's better global performance over the past few years." The central bank article said.
5. Most of the structural monetary policy tools will be withdrawn in a timely manner after completing their targets
The central bank article said that in recent years, we have effectively brought into play the precise trickle-down effect of structural monetary policy tools, focusing on key areas and weak links such as services for financial inclusion, green and low-carbon, and scientific and technological innovation, and adapting to the intrinsic economic high-quality development needs.2022 At the end of June, the balance of the PBoC's structural monetary policy tools amounted to 5.4 trillion yuan, accounting for about one-sixth of the total amount of base money, which is at a reasonable level.
"In addition to agricultural and small-scale re-lending and re-discounting, most of the structural monetary policy tools are phased tools, which will be withdrawn in a timely manner after completing their targets, realizing that there are advances and retreats." The central bank article said.
According to the reporter's combing, "retreat" aspects, such as 2020, the central bank has launched 300 billion yuan of epidemic prevention and control of special refinancing, 500 billion yuan of resumption of production refinancing, as well as for the small and medium-sized banks 1 trillion yuan to support small and medium-sized enterprise refinancing, 1.8 trillion quota natural expiration after the exit.
Then deputy director of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Department Guo Kai explained in July 2020 at a central bank conference, these measures are designed for the special circumstances of the epidemic and the different characteristics of the design, in itself, is a temporary policy measures, they are for a different point in time needs to be set. When the circumstances set by the policy no longer apply they are automatically withdrawn. For example, the 300 billion yuan of epidemic refinancing has completed its mission, and now the production capacity of medical products has been very large, the material security is very abundant, so 300 billion yuan of refinancing has completed its mission, has been withdrawn.
And then PSL. PSL was created in 2014, through the policy banks directed to support the shanty reform, the scale of rapid growth, reached a peak of 3.6 trillion in October 2019, but has now fallen back to 2.5 trillion, mainly because large-scale shanty reform has been reduced and shanty reform projects are mainly financed through the special debt.
Obviously, this year is the "in" stage, the central bank created a number of types of refinancing, and recently set up a new technology reform refinancing. September 13 meeting of the National People's Congress decided to manufacturing, services, social services and small and medium-sized micro-enterprises, self-employed businessmen and so on in the fourth quarter of the upgrading of equipment to support the national commercial banks at an interest rate of not more than 3.2%. No higher than 3.2% interest rate to actively invest in medium- and long-term loans. The People's Bank of China will provide special refinancing support to commercial banks at 100% of the loan principal. The amount of special refinancing is more than 200 billion yuan, to meet the actual demand as far as possible, with a term of one year, which can be rolled over twice. At the same time, the implementation of the policy has been set, the central government for the main body of the loan interest rate subsidy of 2.5%, within the fourth quarter of this year to upgrade the equipment of the main body of the loan the actual cost of the loan is not higher than 0.7%.
6, the government sector, the residential sector, the proportion of debt rose, the proportion of corporate debt declined
The central bank article pointed out that in recent years, the total amount of debt has grown moderately, and vigorously promote the sound development of the national economy. 2018 to 2021, China's non-financial sector of the total debt growth of an average of 10.4% per annum, lower than the average annual growth rate of 2013 to 2017 The average annual growth rate is 4.1 percentage points lower than that from 2013 to 2017, and basically matches the average annual growth rate of the nominal economy (8.3%) during the same period.
By sector, the share of debt in the government and residential sectors has risen, while the share of corporate debt has declined. Data from the central bank showed that the debt balance of the corporate sector was 188.2 trillion yuan at the end of June 2022, accounting for 56.8 percent of total debt, 6.3 percentage points lower than at the end of 2017.
"While resolving the potential debt risks of the corporate sector, the financial system maintained solid support for the real economy through on-balance-sheet bank loans and standardized debt assets, and optimized the financing structure of the corporate sector. "2022 At the end of June, corporate sector bank loans and bonds together accounted for 88.0% of the total debt of the corporate sector, at a record high value, accounting for 12.6 percentage points higher than at the end of 2017." The central bank article said.
7, off-balance-sheet debt contraction
The central bank article said that the implementation of the new rules on capital management in 2018, off-balance-sheet debt risk continued to converge.2022 At the end of June 2022, the balances of entrusted loans, trust loans, and undiscounted bank bills of exchange were 77.7%, 46.9%, and 63.7% of the balances at the end of 2017, respectively, a significant contraction, and the stock debt risk was released in an orderly manner.
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