under this background, in recent years, the global photovoltaic industry has grown rapidly, the industrial scale has been continuously expanded, and the product cost has been continuously reduced. In 29, the output of batteries in global solar was 1.66 GW, and the output of polysilicon was 11, tons. In 21, it reached 2.5GW and 16, tons respectively, and the price of components decreased from 4.5 USD/watt in 2 to 1.7 USD/watt in 21.
during the 11th five-year plan period, China's solar photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, and it has become one of the few industries in China that can participate in international competition simultaneously and is expected to reach the international leading level. Accelerating the development of China's solar photovoltaic industry is of great significance for realizing industrial transformation and upgrading, adjusting energy structure, developing social economy and promoting energy conservation and emission reduction. The Decision on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries issued by the State Council has listed the solar photovoltaic industry as an important field of strategic emerging industries in China's future development.
according to the requirements of the industrial transformation and upgrading plan (211-215), the 12th Five-Year Development Plan of the information industry and the 12th Five-Year Development Plan of the electronic information manufacturing industry, on the basis of comprehensive investigation, in-depth study and extensive discussion, the 12th Five-Year Development Plan of the solar photovoltaic industry is compiled as a guiding document for the development of the photovoltaic industry in China in the 12th Five-Year Plan.
I. Review of the development in the 11th Five-Year Plan
(I) Overview of China's photovoltaic industry
1. The scale of the industry has increased rapidly, and the market share has been among the highest in the world
During the 11th Five-Year Plan period, the output of solar cells in China has developed rapidly with an average annual growth rate of over 1%. From 27 to 21, the output of solar cells ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. In 21, the output of solar cells was about 1GW, accounting for 5% of the global output. More than 9% of China's solar cell products are exported, and the export value in 21 reached 2.2 billion US dollars.
2. Mastering the production technology of key materials and gradually strengthening the industrial foundation
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the annual output of polysilicon put into production in China increased from 2 tons to 45, tons, and the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials in photovoltaic industry increased from almost zero to about 5%, which has formed an output value scale of tens of billions of yuan. Domestic polysilicon backbone enterprises have mastered the key technology of improving Siemens thousands-ton scale production, and the stability of scale production has been gradually improved.
3. The mainstream product technology keeps pace with the world, and the product quality is steadily improved
At the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, crystalline silicon cells in China accounted for more than 95% of the total solar cell output. The quality of solar cell products has improved year by year, especially in terms of conversion efficiency. The performance of backbone enterprises has increased rapidly, with the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon solar cells reaching 17-19%, polycrystalline silicon solar cells reaching 15-17%, and new batteries such as thin films reaching about 6-8%.
4. remarkable achievements have been made in energy conservation and emission reduction, and the utilization rate of resources has been greatly improved
remarkable achievements have been made in energy conservation and emission reduction in photovoltaic industry, the comprehensive utilization level of by-products has been steadily improved, and the overall utilization rate of resources has been greatly improved. In 26, the average unit consumption per kilogram of polysilicon production was 1.8-2. kilograms of industrial silicon, 1.8 kilograms of liquid chlorine and 3-35 kWh of comprehensive power consumption, and by 21, the average unit consumption was 1.3-1.4 kilograms of industrial silicon, 1. kilograms of liquid chlorine and 16-18 kWh of comprehensive power consumption, and some key enterprises reached 13-15 kWh/year. The amount of polysilicon used to produce crystalline silicon solar cells decreased from 11 g/W in 26 to 7-8 g/W in 21.
5. Breakthroughs have been made in production equipment, and the localization level has been continuously improved.
Domestic single crystal furnaces, polycrystalline silicon ingot furnaces, square cutters and other equipment have gradually entered industrialization, occupying a large domestic market share. The special equipment for crystalline silicon solar cells has basically realized localization except automatic printing machine and cutting equipment, and has the "turnkey" ability of production line. Silicon-based thin film battery production equipment has initially formed a small-size whole line production capacity. In 21, the sales revenue of special photovoltaic manufacturing equipment in China exceeded RMB 4 billion, and that in export delivery value reached RMB 1 million.
6. The domestic photovoltaic market has started gradually, and the installed capacity has increased rapidly
China has successively promulgated the Interim Measures for the Management of Financial Subsidies for the Application of Solar Photovoltaic Buildings and the Notice on the Implementation of the Golden Sun Demonstration Project, and has successively launched two batches of bidding projects for photovoltaic power station concessions with a total of 29 MW. By 21, China's cumulative installed photovoltaic capacity reached 8MW, and the newly added installed photovoltaic capacity reached 5MW that year, up 166% year-on-year.
(II) Development characteristics of China's photovoltaic industry
1. Make full use of domestic and foreign market factors, and the degree of internationalization of industrial development is high
China's photovoltaic industry makes full use of domestic and foreign capital and talents. At the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, dozens of enterprises have listed overseas and domestically, and their products are widely sold in the international market. Domestic photovoltaic enterprises are mainly private enterprises, and the strength of major enterprises is constantly increasing. Four enterprises rank among the top ten in the world in solar cell production and become internationally renowned enterprises.
2. Combining independent innovation with imported absorption to form an industrial system with independent characteristics
By combining independent innovation with imported digestion, absorption and re-innovation, a photovoltaic industrial system with independent characteristics in China has been initially formed. The manufacturing level of polysilicon, battery components and controllers has been continuously improved, the localization rate of manufacturing equipment has exceeded 5%, and the quality and technical level of solar cells have gradually moved to the forefront of the world.
3. Coordinated development of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain promotes the cost reduction of photovoltaic power generation
During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, China's photovoltaic industry broke through the development bottlenecks of materials, markets and talents, and the industrial scale grew rapidly, and the complete upstream and downstream industrial chain basically took shape. The rise of China's photovoltaic industry has promoted the development of the world's photovoltaic industry, effectively promoted technological progress, reduced the cost of photovoltaic products, and accelerated the application pace of the global photovoltaic industry.
4. The industry is developing in clusters, effectively improving regional competitiveness
The development trend of regional clustering of China's photovoltaic industry has initially appeared. Relying on regional resource advantages and industrial base, regional industrial centers such as Jiangsu, Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Henan, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia have been formed in China, and a number of well-known and representative enterprises at home and abroad have emerged. The main enterprises have initially completed vertical integration layout, accelerated overseas mergers and acquisitions and set up factories, and developed into international enterprises.
second, the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" is facing the situation
At present, all major developed countries have vigorously supported the development of photovoltaic industry from a strategic perspective, and promoted market application and industrial development by formulating on-grid tariff laws or implementing the "solar roof" plan. International capitals are also generally optimistic about the photovoltaic industry: on the one hand, many large enterprises in the photovoltaic industry have announced new investment plans and continuously expanded their production scale; On the other hand, other fields, such as semiconductor enterprises and display enterprises, are or will soon enter the photovoltaic industry with a variety of market capital.
from the strategic path of China's future social and economic development, the development of solar photovoltaic industry is an important direction for China to ensure energy supply, build a low-carbon society, promote economic restructuring and cultivate strategic emerging industries. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's photovoltaic industry will continue to be in a stage of rapid development, while facing great opportunities and severe challenges.
(I) China's photovoltaic industry is facing a broad development space
The crisis of the shortage of conventional energy supply in the world is becoming more and more serious, and the large-scale development and utilization of fossil energy has become one of the main reasons for the pollution of natural environment and the deterioration of human living environment. Finding new energy sources has become a hot issue in the world. Among all kinds of new energy sources, solar photovoltaic power generation has the advantages of pollution-free, sustainability, large amount, wide distribution and diverse application forms, and has been highly valued by all countries in the world. China's photovoltaic industry has a good development foundation in manufacturing level, industrial system, technology research and development, and the domestic and international market prospects are generally good. As long as we seize the development opportunity and accelerate the transformation and upgrading, we will surely usher in a broader development space in the later period.
(II) The interaction among photovoltaic industry, policy and market needs to be strengthened urgently
From a global perspective, it will take some time for photovoltaic power generation to have market competitiveness in price, and the recent growth momentum of solar cell demand mainly comes from the policy support and price subsidies of governments in various countries for photovoltaic industry; The sustained growth of the market will also promote the expansion of industrial scale and the reduction of product costs, thus promoting the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. At present, the domestic policy system to support photovoltaic application and the long-term interactive mechanism to promote the sustainable development of photovoltaic power generation are being established. Most solar cell products are exported to overseas markets, and the industrial development is greatly affected by the financial crisis and changes in overseas markets, and the dependence on external markets is too high, which is not conducive to sustained and healthy development.
(III) Facing the severe challenges of international economic turmoil and trade protection
In recent years, there has been a turbulent situation in global economic development. Some countries have adjusted their new energy policies, and related subsidies have been lowered, which has a great impact on the development of China's photovoltaic industry. At the same time, there have been many trade disputes against China's photovoltaic industry in Europe and the United States, and similar disputes will still occur in the future. The main reasons are as follows: First, China's solar cell cost advantage is obvious, which puts pressure on foreign products; Second, the domestic photovoltaic market has not been launched on a large scale, and the products are mainly exported, which may lead to dumping doubts; Third, China's relevant standard system is not perfect, and there are problems such as uneven product quality.
(4) New processes and technologies are evolving rapidly, and international competition is intensifying
The global photovoltaic industry is developing with each passing day: the conversion efficiency of crystalline silicon batteries increases by one percentage point annually; The technical level of thin-film batteries has been continuously improved; Emerging technologies such as nano-material batteries have developed rapidly; Solar cell production and testing equipment has been continuously upgraded. However, there is still a big gap in many aspects in the domestic photovoltaic industry, and the international competitive pressure is escalating: the key technology of polysilicon still lags behind the international advanced level, the high-end equipment for the production of crystalline silicon batteries still needs to be imported, and the technology and equipment level of thin-film batteries are obviously backward.
(V) The market application continues to expand, and reducing the cost is still the industrial theme
The market application of solar photovoltaic will show a wide and diversified trend, and photovoltaic products that meet various needs will continue to come out. In addition to large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power stations, photovoltaic power generation systems, small-scale photovoltaic systems and off-grid photovoltaic systems that are combined with buildings will also rise rapidly. The cost of solar cells and photovoltaic systems will continue to decline and approach the cost of conventional power generation, which will still be the theme of photovoltaic industry development. From silicon materials to components and supporting parts, there will be market pressure of rapid price reduction, and solar cells will continue to develop in the direction of high efficiency and low cost.
III. Guiding ideology, basic principles and development goals
(I) Guiding ideology
Deeply implement Scientific Outlook on Development, seize the great opportunity of vigorously developing new energy in the world at present, focus on the purpose of reducing photovoltaic power generation cost, improving photovoltaic product performance, making China's photovoltaic industry better and stronger, and make great efforts to promote key technological innovation, improve production technology level, break through the bottleneck of equipment research and development, and promote market-scale application, so as to make the overall competitiveness of China's photovoltaic industry remarkable.
(II) Basic Principles
1. Based on overall planning, adhere to supporting the excellent and the strong
Strengthen the guidance of national macro policies, adhere to overall planning and rational industrial layout, and standardize the healthy development of photovoltaic industry. Concentrate on supporting superior enterprises to become better and stronger, and encourage key photovoltaic enterprises to promote resource integration and mergers and acquisitions.
2. Support technological innovation and reduce power generation cost
Take enterprises as the main body of technological innovation and industrial development, strengthen the research and development of key technologies, improve the production process level, and strive to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation from the aspects of large-scale production of high-purity silicon materials, improvement of battery conversion efficiency, localization of production equipment, research and development of new batteries and raw and auxiliary materials, and system integration.
3. Optimize the industrial environment and expand the photovoltaic market
Promote the implementation of various photovoltaic support policies, mobilize the resource advantages of all aspects, and optimize the industrial development environment. Give full play to the role of market mechanism, consolidate the international market, expand domestic diversified applications, and make the development of China's photovoltaic industry have a stable market support.
4. Strengthen the construction of service system to promote the healthy development of industry
Strengthen the construction of public service platform, establish and improve photovoltaic standards and product quality inspection and certification system, strictly abide by environmental protection and safety production regulations, promote energy conservation, emission reduction and resource recycling, and realize clean production and safety production.
(III) Development objectives
1. Economic objectives
During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period, the photovoltaic industry maintained steady and rapid growth, and polysilicon, solar cells and other products met the installed capacity requirements set by the national renewable energy development plan, and actively met the development needs of the international market. Support key enterprises to become better and stronger, and form by 215: leading polysilicon enterprises will reach 5, tons, and key enterprises will reach 1, tons; The leading enterprises of solar cells have reached 5GW level, and the backbone enterprises have reached GW level; 1 photovoltaic enterprise with an annual sales income of over 1 billion yuan, and 3-5 photovoltaic enterprises with an annual sales income of over 5 billion yuan; 3-4 photovoltaic special equipment enterprises with annual sales income of over 1 billion yuan.
2. Technical objective
The industrial scale, product quality and environmental protection level of polysilicon production will be improved simultaneously, and the recovery and utilization rates of silicon tetrachloride, hydrogen chloride and hydrogen in the reduction tail gas will be no less than 98.5%, 99% and 99%, and the average comprehensive power consumption will be less than 12 kWh/kg by 215. The industrialization conversion efficiency of monocrystalline silicon battery reaches 21%, polycrystalline silicon battery reaches 19%, amorphous silicon thin-film battery reaches 12%, and the new thin-film solar battery realizes industrialization. The localization rate of photovoltaic cell production equipment and auxiliary materials reached 8%, and the key technologies of photovoltaic grid connection, energy storage equipment production and system integration were mastered.
3. innovation goal
by 215, the innovation ability of enterprises will be significantly enhanced, and a number of brand enterprises with advanced core technologies will emerge to master the key technologies and production processes of photovoltaic industry. The transformation rate of technological achievements has been significantly improved, the standard system has been gradually improved, and its international influence has been greatly enhanced. Make full use of the existing foundation and establish the State Key Laboratory and testing platform of photovoltaic industry.
4. photovoltaic power generation cost target
by 215, the cost of photovoltaic modules will be reduced to 7, yuan/kw, the cost of photovoltaic systems will be reduced to 13, yuan/kw, and the cost of power generation will be reduced to .8 yuan/kwh, so photovoltaic power generation has certain economic competitiveness; By 22, the cost of photovoltaic modules will be reduced to 5, yuan/kw, the cost of photovoltaic systems will be reduced to 1, yuan/kw, and the cost of power generation will be reduced to .6 yuan/kwh, thus achieving effective competition in major power markets.
IV. Main tasks of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan
(1) Promoting technological progress and realizing transformation and upgrading
Developing clean, safe, low-energy, high-purity and large-scale polysilicon production technology, improving the comprehensive utilization rate of by-products and narrowing the gap with the international advanced production level. Realize the innovative development of solar cell production technology, encourage large-scale production, and improve the core competitiveness of photovoltaic industry. Promote energy conservation in the industry