(a) biological drugs: can only be called biological analogues, no effect. Vaccine, growth hormone (self-funded, consumer goods) and blood products (so much plasma can't be collected) have no effect. Vaccine related targets (zhifei, Kangtai, Hualan), blood products (Boya, Hualan, Tiantan), growth hormone (Gaoxin, Anke);
(2) Traditional Chinese medicine: there is no concept of generic drugs, and there is no impact.
(3) Innovative drugs: great benefits. Pharmaceutical companies are more active in developing innovative drugs, and doctors will be more motivated to create new drugs. Combined with innovative drugs to accelerate medical insurance, innovative drugs will lead to a big outbreak.
(4) CRO/CMO: generic drug CRO/CMO is damaged, while innovative drug CRO/CMO benefits. Related targets (Hengrui Pharma, Wuxi PharmaTech, Gloria, etc. )
(5) Medical devices: Compared with drugs whose prices have decreased in different degrees due to quantity purchase, medical devices are less interfered by policies (there are many immature investment opportunities at present). The sales scale of medical devices market in China has rapidly increased from 65.9 billion yuan in 2008 to 370 billion yuan in 20 16, accounting for about 20% of the whole medical market, with an increase of nearly five times and a compound annual growth rate of over 20%. Compared with the international market, China's medical device market still has huge growth space. Related targets (Mindray Medical, Giant Panda Kaikai Medical, Antu Bio, Wanfu Bio)
(6) Medical service: There is no impact, and the price will continue to rise every year.
(7) Raw materials: vitamins are not affected, and the downstream is feed, which is mainly exported; Other APIs have been affected for a long time: generic drug preparation enterprises changed to self-produced APIs, the price of preparations fell, the volume and price of externally transferred raw materials fell, or were acquired by preparation enterprises.
(8) Drugstore: little impact. First, it mainly depends on the growth rate of the total volume, that is, the scale of the pharmaceutical market will increase by 5~ 10%, and the product structure adjustment will not affect it. Second, from the perspective of foreign history, in the process of drug price reduction, pharmacies are not affected and come out. Third, in the income structure of pharmacies, prescription drugs account for about 1/3. Fourth, there are many kinds of drugs, which can replace low-priced drugs. Fifth, although the price of pharmacies will also decrease with hospitals, it will still be higher than hospitals. Patients choose pharmacies mainly for convenience, and it costs tens of yuan to register and queue.
(9) Commercial distribution: little impact. Mainly depends on the total growth rate, that is, the scale of the pharmaceutical market will increase by 5~ 10%, and the product structure adjustment will not affect it. Generic drugs will go down, and new generic drugs and innovative drugs will go up.
Brand consumption: little impact. Including brand Chinese medicine (basically at their own expense, consumption upgrade), brand OTC (patient self-diagnosis, convenient diagnosis and treatment).
The impact of centralized procurement on pharmaceutical sub-industries: it mainly affects chemical generic drugs, and high-value consumables may also be affected. The premise of national centralized procurement is medical insurance varieties and products that have passed consistency evaluation or standardization. The main products that meet this standard are chemicals, and the following may be high-value consumables.