Green harmonic (688017) is China's harmonic reducer industry leader. 2019 company revenue of 186 million yuan, compared with the global boss Harmonic (Harmonic) 4.1 billion yuan of revenue, is still just a rain. But the company has broken the monopoly of foreign technology, the future with the "machine for man" trend continues to promote, the future of localized substitution space is huge.
Green harmonic main harmonic reducer, accounting for 77% of the company's operating income. In the three core components of industrial robots, the reducer is similar to the human "motion joints", it is the most difficult research and development, the highest cost ratio. Japan has achieved a high market share by virtue of its pre-eminence and technological advantage, and only two Japanese giants have monopolized 70% of the global market share, so whether or not the speed reducer can be localized, is a key link in the localization of industrial robots.
In the industrial robot industry chain upstream core components - midstream body manufacturing - downstream applications, the upstream core components manufacturers have a significantly stronger voice. Xinsong Robotics, Xinshida 2019 gross profit margin of less than 26%, 18%, but the upstream of the green harmonic, Sinotech Kemi gross profit margin of up to 60% in the same period. Exton and other companies credit put very wide, the cash content of the income is low, and even accept the customer's commercial promissory note, but the green harmonic are bank acceptance, and receivables accounted for 8% of operating income, reflecting a stronger bargaining power on the downstream.
Green's harmonic main business is precision drive R & D, design, production and sales, in order to break the monopoly of foreign enterprises in the harmonic reducer market, the company 17 years of independent research and development, it's precision harmonic reducer in terms of precision, life expectancy, stability, noise have reached the domestic advanced level, and to achieve the import substitution of the international brand, but also to the international manufacturer for the Supply, last year, the company's domestic and foreign revenue of 7:3.
In recent years, led by industry giants industry gradually popular modular development, in order to allow downstream manufacturers to focus on the development of application scenarios of the robot. From the prospectus can be seen, the company also follow the trend to promote harmonic reducer products to mechatronics, modular direction, mechatronics actuator business from scratch, accounting for 1.6%. The unit price of mechatronic products is 3000-5000 yuan, higher than the unit price of harmonic reducer 1000-2000 yuan.
In addition to the modular trend for category expansion, the company has also carried out non-robotics expansion into the field of photovoltaic manufacturing, medical equipment, high-grade CNC machine tools, aerospace, new energy equipment and other fields.
Harmonic robots are mainly used for small and medium load industrial robots and service robots, while RV gearboxes are mainly used for large load industrial robots, which are usually used in the fields of 3C, automotive, and chemical industry. But the large load industrial robots in the hand, wrist, small arm and other places need to use harmonic reducer.
RV reducer has higher fatigue strength, stiffness and life, compared with the harmonic reducer has its own advantages and disadvantages, I think the two application scenarios are different, and there is no question that RV reducer will replace the harmonic reducer.
2017-2019, the company's operating income of 175 million yuan, 220 million yuan, 186 million yuan, operating profit of 57 million, 73 million, 63 million, respectively, gross margin and net interest rate are maintained at a high level, the proportion of R & D investment in operating income is also continuing to improve. However, from the point of view of revenue, the company has also been affected by the impact of the continuous downward trend of the robotics industry since the fourth quarter of 2018, especially the epidemic has had an impact on all major robot manufacturers.
The main customers in the global robotics industry are automotive, for example, recently Xinsong hitched a ride with Tesla, followed by the 3C industry, but the traditional automotive industry's downward trend of the river is very obvious, and the electronics industry is also in the epidemic in the boom lower, coupled with the trade war affecting the capital expenditure budgets of these customers' dads, so the industrial robotics industry business has also been declining since last year. Although standing in the future of the age of the population aging times point of view, buy robotics company is very correct, because industrial robotics is a very good track. But for the short term may not be so, because short-term stock prices are driven by sentiment.
Although it has broken the monopoly of the Harmonic giants, and the market share of domestic autonomous brand robotics applications has increased to 62%, Green's Harmonic global market share is only 6%. The company also continues to carry out research and development, the launch of the hollow structure of the integrated harmonic deceleration module, etc., the localization of industrial robots has only entered the rapid introduction period, the decelerator are micron-level machining accuracy, the barriers are very high, the mass production of related parts and components even if achieved, in terms of life expectancy, stability, noise and heat, etc. If you can't fight with Japan's giants, can't catch up with international advanced level, there is the instability of performance.
In addition, I have doubts about the company's fundraising projects. The company's existing capacity of 100,000 units / year, the actual sales of about 77,000 units. The company's IPO to raise funds of 1.055 billion yuan, oversubscribed 415 million yuan, for the construction of an annual output of 500,000 units of precision harmonic reducer and R & D center upgrade project.
After completion, the company's harmonic reducer production capacity increased to 600,000 units per year. Global 2018 a **** sold 1.21 million units of harmonic reducer, even if the downstream industry applications further expansion, the company's sales volume to expand 7 times, market share at least to account for the global sales of 40-50%, which is a very, very huge challenge.
Brokerage seller report and the company's prospectus did not give this answer, only to take a step to see how the green harmonics quickly digest these capacities, and quickly promote the domestic alternative.