Wen San Zuo Mao Xuan
On February 3rd, the State Council started construction on the first day after extending the Spring Festival holiday. However, affected by the novel coronavirus epidemic, most automobile manufacturers and automobile 4S stores have not resumed work or opened.
Affected by multiple factors, such as macro-economy and switching of emission standards, the automobile market in China has been declining for two consecutive years. The sudden epidemic will undoubtedly increase the downward pressure on China auto market.
"1 and February were affected by the epidemic, and the decline rate of the automobile market may be above 25%, or even around 30%." On February 1 day, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the All-China Automobile Federation, said in an interview with think tank Jun.
However, Cui Dongshu also said that if the risks brought by special factors are not taken into account, the market may still achieve positive growth from March 2020 to 65438+February. In two stages, after the epidemic situation improves, the auto market will turn from negative to positive.
At the beginning of this year, different institutions in the industry made different forecasts for the automobile market in 2020. Generally speaking, most previous forecasts think that China auto market will gradually bottom out and stabilize in 2020. The China Automobile Association predicts that the annual sales volume of China automobile market will be 25,365,438+0,000 vehicles in 2020, down 2% year-on-year; The National Passenger Car Federation predicts that the passenger car market in China will increase by 65,438+0% in 2020.
The above forecast does not include the sudden impact of the epidemic on the automobile market. At present, even if government departments and medical institutions actively fight against the epidemic, it is difficult to fully assess the impact of the epidemic on the economy and the automobile market.
"The epidemic will have a certain impact on the entire automobile market, but this impact is temporary. With the end of the epidemic, the market will gradually return to its original operating state. " China automobile dealers association Deputy Secretary-General Relo said.
The market pressure was high in the first quarter.
Judging from China's automobile consumption habits, the Spring Festival holiday is often the off-season of car purchase, and February is the low point of automobile production and sales throughout the year. In 20 19 10 and February, the national automobile sales were 2.367 million and14.82 million, respectively, which was 15% lower than that in 20 18.
With the decline of the auto market narrowing month by month in the second half of 20 19, and the low base in the first two months of last year, the industry has been optimistic about the expectations of the first two months of this year. Although the Spring Festival this year is in 65438+ 10, most manufacturers have low expectations for 65438+ 10, but they think that February will be improved to some extent compared with last year. However, affected by the epidemic, the production and sales data in February this year will be relatively low.
Some people compare the data of the automobile market during the SARS period in 2003, and think that the impact of the epidemic on the automobile market will not be too great. In 2003, SARS broke out in February of that year and ended in July, lasting for half a year. However, according to the data of China Automobile Association, the automobile market in China maintained a high growth in 2003, with the annual automobile sales of 4,390,800 vehicles, up by 3,425,438+0% year-on-year.
In Cui Dongshu's view, the current situation of the automobile industry can't be completely compared with that of the SARS period, and the impact will be greater than that at that time.
"During the SARS period, due to the relatively good economic environment, China just joined the WTO, and the demand for vehicles was in short supply, so the overall situation of the automobile market in that year still increased substantially. Now that the economy itself is depressed, China's dependence on foreign countries is much greater than in the past. So the impact of this epidemic will be even greater. " Cui Dongshu told think tank Jun. ..
However, Cui Dongshu believes that 1 and February may be affected after the outbreak of the epidemic during the Spring Festival. After March, with the relative stability of the epidemic, production and operation will return to relative normal. In addition, influenced by consumer psychology during the epidemic, vehicle demand will replace housing demand and become a reasonable demand of residents, which will promote the automobile market in disguise.
In the stage of automobile popularization in 2003, due to the strong demand for automobiles, the consumption was released in the second half of the year, and the annual sales volume maintained rapid growth. But now the automobile market in China has entered the stock market, and the concept of automobile consumption is completely different from before.
"The situation at that time was that I was going to buy a car, but it was just a matter of buying it early and buying it late. But the current situation is that the car has been bought and the market growth rate is declining. " On February 3rd, Wang Qing, deputy director of Market Economy Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, told think tank Jun.
In Wang Qing's view, the impact of the epidemic on the auto market mainly depends on two aspects. One is how long the epidemic will last, and the other is how much the epidemic will affect the economy, which will indirectly affect the automobile market.
"If the epidemic ends before April, the impact on the automobile market in the whole year will not be particularly great, and it will not have much impact on the preferences and expectations of automobile consumption, whether or not it was originally intended to buy a car." Wang Qing said.
A number of industry analysts told think tank Jun that the epidemic will delay the demand of the auto market, but it will not make these potential demands disappear.
From the perspective of different car buyers, it is mainly divided into three categories: increase purchase, exchange purchase and new purchase. Among them, increased purchases are mainly in first-and second-tier cities, and new purchases are mainly concentrated in sinking markets such as the central and western regions and the third and fourth lines. In the automobile stock market, purchase increase and redemption are the main growth points of the market. Due to the impact of the epidemic on the macro-economy, the employment and income of people who buy new cars, increase purchases or change purchases will be affected, thus affecting the ability to buy cars.
Some people think that under the influence of the epidemic, it may stimulate the demand of some new buyers. "'* * * enjoy' may be a false proposition, * * * can enjoy at ordinary times, but now when it is really needed, it is impossible for * * * to enjoy the car when the vehicle is nervous. The car is a private space, and everyone will pay more attention to this private space than before, and they will think that owning a car is more important. " Cui Dongshu said.
Affected by the epidemic, public transportation in some cities is inconvenient, inter-city and county-level buses are out of service, and online carpooling services such as Didi are limited, which will make some residents feel inconvenient, thus breeding the willingness to buy cars, especially in the central and western regions, third-and fourth-tier cities and small towns. Young people.
"Self-owned brands are mainly the first-time purchase demand, which has been greatly impacted in the past, but it is still very inconvenient to travel without a car in third-and fourth-tier cities. Self-owned brand models will restore the rigid demand of first-time car buyers in the future, so I am relatively optimistic about my own brand. However, I am worried that the unstable demand for redemption caused by economic shocks may affect the mid-to-high-end and luxury car markets. " Cui Dongshu said.
However, Wang Qing believes that the epidemic is short-lived and sudden. When the epidemic ends, this influencing factor will end, and the demand and willingness to buy a car will return to the previous state. During the epidemic, whether you want to buy it or not, you can't buy it. Everyone must stay at home. This part of the demand is mainly affected by the duration and inconvenience of the epidemic. ?
Dealers go online to get customers.
At present, most 4S stores have also suspended car sales, especially in areas with serious epidemics such as Hubei. Hengxin Automobile Group, an automobile dealer group headquartered in Wuhan, is one of the dealer groups most affected by the epidemic. 265438+20th Century Business Herald found in Hengxin official website that Hengxin has more than 300 4S stores in China, including more than Hubei 1 10 and 29 in Wuhan.
Previously, the relevant person in charge of Hengxin revealed that the Group is considering the specific business hours of 4S stores. The 4S store outside Hubei Province is tentatively scheduled to open on February 3, and the business hours of the 4S store in Hubei Province are expected to be later. According to the current calculation, it may be postponed until February 8 after the Lantern Festival.
In addition, Yongda, Guanghui and other large automobile dealer groups have also announced plans to postpone their opening. "At present, it is mainly to deal with the epidemic, and the safety of employees is the top priority. At present, most stores plan to start construction on 10, and Wuhan, Wenzhou and other places require 17. " On February 2, a senior executive of a car dealer group told think tank Jun.
Some 4S stores gave some countermeasures during the period of closure, requiring sales staff to do a good job in online marketing.
A salesperson of a 4S store told think tank Jun that under the current circumstances, even if it is opened, there will not be many customers coming to the store. Therefore, at present, most relevant practitioners will focus on online marketing, and complete the acquisition of potential consumers with the help of vertical websites or e-commerce platforms. Wait until the epidemic is over, and then further promote sales and other services.
"At present, the store accepts more consultations through online shopping malls and telephones, and the service provides door-to-door pick-up and delivery services in a convenient way." On February 2, a senior executive of Yongda Group told think tank Jun.
Think tank Jun learned that a store in GAC Toyota has also turned the sales and after-sales links into a combination of online and offline. In the process of car purchase, GAC Toyota's online consultation, intelligent exhibition hall car viewing and online car booking do not require customers to go to the store. After the customer decides to buy, he will go to the store for a test drive, complete the payment and licensing, and avoid contacting more people. Some 4S stores provide after-sales services such as online updates and free on-site shuttle bus maintenance.
It is worth noting that the automobile industry has a long industrial chain, and the impact of the epidemic on the automobile industry will continue for some time.
Last year, due to the downturn in the auto market, most automakers went to inventory to ease the pressure. Due to the delay in the resumption of work of car companies and parts companies, although some models are still in stock, it may also lead to the shortage of some popular models and the shortage of after-sales parts. In the short term, the operating pressure of dealers should not be underestimated. At the same time, the survival dilemma of dealers will soon spread to the upstream of the main engine plant, and dealers will reduce car bookings and intensify the contradiction between manufacturers and merchants.
Some OEMs have realized this problem, and Volvo is the first car company to reduce the burden on dealers.
On February 2nd, Volvo Car announced that it had decided to relax the performance appraisal of dealers and not set the February sales target. At the same time, considering that the income of dealer staff may be affected by the epidemic, in order to alleviate the financial pressure of dealers, Volvo Cars directly provides the dealer staff with personnel subsidies totaling more than RMB10 million.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.