The weight of ASML.
Estevez, director of the Bureau of Industry and Security in charge of export control of the U.S. Department of Commerce, said on the 27th that Washington is negotiating with its allies in an attempt to jointly take measures to restrict China's access to manufacturing tools for manufacturing high-end chips. According to the Wall Street Journal, ASML has not delivered any EUV (extreme ultraviolet) mask aligner to China due to the intervention of the United States. In 20 18, SMIC ordered an EUV mask aligner from ASML for the production of chips below 7 nm, which is expected to be delivered in 20 19. However, this kind of mask aligner has never been delivered, and ASML revealed that the company has never obtained the relevant export license.
ASML occupies more than 60% of the global mask aligner market share, and it is also the only manufacturer in the world that can provide EUV mask aligner for chips of 7 nm and below. Although it is impossible to export EUV mask aligner to China, China has become one of the most important markets for DUV (deep ultraviolet) mask aligner in ASML. According to public information, the main difference between DUV mask aligner and EUV mask aligner lies in the wavelength of light source, which determines the manufacturing process of the chip. At present, DUV mask aligner can't manufacture chips with processes below 7 nm, but it is enough to manufacture mature process chips with greater demand.
According to the financial report released by ASML for fiscal year 20021,Chinese mainland has become the third largest market in ASML, accounting for 14.7% of its global turnover in 20021,and shipments from Chinese mainland accounted for 16% of its global shipments in 20021. Shen Bo, Senior Vice President of ASML and President of China recently revealed that since 1988, ASML has installed more than 1000 sets of omni-directional lithography solutions in Chinese mainland, and the corresponding number of employees has also exceeded 1500.
Because they have mastered the key technologies of the world's high-end chip manufacturing, the governments of ASML and the Netherlands have been the key targets of lobbying, wooing and pressuring by the United States. In July this year, Bloomberg quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the United States is putting pressure on the Dutch government to expand the current export restrictions on China and prohibit ASML from exporting some DUV mask aligner to China. At the same time, people familiar with the matter said that the Dutch government had not agreed to impose any additional restrictions on ASML's exports to China, and believed that the trade relations between the Netherlands and China might be damaged if the measures demanded by the US were implemented.
In the face of a series of latest export control measures announced by the United States aimed at China's semiconductor industry, ASML's Chief Financial Officer Dasen said that the new US regulations have limited impact on the company's export to mask aligner, because ASML is a European company, and its machines rarely use American parts.
We need China more.
ASML, like other semiconductor companies in the world, does not want to give up its huge interests in China for political reasons. Shen Bo once made it clear that "China is a very important part in the development of the global semiconductor industry. Aside from non-market external factors, from the company's own point of view, our investment and support for the China market is very firm. ".
In addition to considering the interests of the company, ASML also pointed out the importance of the China market to the global semiconductor supply chain. Peter Wen, CEO of ASML, said earlier this year, "I think it is necessary to realize that Chinese mainland is an important participant in the semiconductor industry, and Chinese mainland is an important supplier of mature and mainstream semiconductor processes in the global market, so we must be cautious".
After the "chip shortage" due to the epidemic, global semiconductors are facing new changes-weak demand and overcapacity. "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" reported on the 29th that the latest financial report showed that the profits of several chip giants such as Intel plummeted in the third quarter. On the 27th, Intel's financial report showed that its net profit decreased by 85% year-on-year. According to the report, the prosperity of the semiconductor industry in the past few years seems to be dying out, and the new US restrictions on China's chip exports may aggravate this pain. KLA, an American semiconductor equipment manufacturer from China with near 1/3 market, warned at the financial report meeting on 26th that the U.S ban on China chips would severely impact the U.S semiconductor industry in 2023. According to Gartner's latest forecast, global semiconductor revenue is expected to increase by 7.4% in 2022, which is lower than 26.3% in 202 1 year.
There are also Taiwan Province media reports that TSMC, the world's largest OEM, is likely to close some EUV mask aligner before the end of this year. Micron, a world-renowned semiconductor storage manufacturer, also announced that it will cut equipment investment by about 50% in fiscal year 2023 and take measures to reduce supply. In addition, South Korea's SK Hynix also officially began to reduce production.
Gu Wenjun, chief analyst of Xinmou Research, told Global Times that China is the largest chip market and importer in the world, and the demand for semiconductor equipment and materials is growing rapidly. China's market scale continues to increase, and its market position is more important in the downward stage of the industry.
The American media quoted Kilchris, a senior researcher at the New American Security Center, as saying, "The United States has been discussing these control measures with its allies, but the fact remains that the control measures implemented are still unilateral and overseas. In other words, we haven't convinced anyone yet. History shows that our allies usually do not respond well to American overseas (restrictive) measures. "
How does China solve the bottleneck?
In the four links of semiconductor manufacturing: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, manufacturing is still the short board of China's industry, and some key equipment, including mask aligner, still has the problem of "sticking the neck".
According to the statistics of China Electronic Special Equipment Industry Association and International Semiconductor Industry Association, the market sales of semiconductor equipment in China in 20021year was187.2 billion US dollars, up by 39.2% year-on-year, but the localization rate of semiconductor equipment in China was only 20.2%. In recent years, many domestic enterprises are tackling key problems in mask aligner. According to some media, Shanghai Microelectronics Company has been able to realize the commercial production of 90 nm mask aligner, and is continuing its research and development to the advanced level in the world, but it will take some time.
Gu Wenjun told Global Times that the U.S. restrictions on China's semiconductor industry range from sanctioning China's semiconductor enterprises to restricting foreign semiconductor enterprises from developing in China. Now there are different voices within international enterprises. On the one hand, they look at China's policy response, hoping to promote cooperation with China and even increase investment in China; on the other hand, they are also considering reducing investment in China and going to the United States.
In this case, industries in China need to remain open. Gu Wenjun said that foreign manufacturers have been banned by the United States, and they have the ability and motivation to safeguard their own interests. During the period of sanctions, some European companies have been negotiating with the United States, saying that "we should encourage Dutch, Japanese, Korean and other manufacturers to integrate more into China's semiconductor supply chain in difficult times".