Chipotle: Nine Major Technology Industry Trends Predicted for 2022
First, the telecom companies focus on 6G technology
5G with ultra-fast transmission rates and low latency characteristics, so that the smart city, virtual reality, augmented reality immersive collaborative experience, self-driving car applications possible, Virtual reality, augmented reality of immersive collaborative experience, self-driving car applications become possible. 2022 will have more through the sandbox setup, developers in which to create new experience cases, and can be used for "smart health care, factory automation, augmented reality" and so on, such as 5G with real-time connectivity can make the assembly to maintain stable For example, 5G has real-time connectivity, which enables assembly to maintain a stable connectivity state, and 5G's low latency helps "haptic applications" to be more sensitive, which effectively improves the simulation of haptics, and the applications extend to robotic surgeries, telemedicine, and video gaming, and so on. On the other hand, as 5G and LEO satellites continue to develop towards commercialization, satellites can co-exist with 5G and complement 5G base stations in difficult environments that are not easy to deploy.
As telecom operators face the pressure of digital transformation, how to combine 5G and network-centric business models is key to development.
Data Ready is a video ready to be used as an on-demand application. , control, medicine, and education can be promoted, and the coverage even extends to the sky, ocean, and space.
Second, 2022 foundry 12-inch capacity annual increase of about 14%
The semiconductor demand led by 5G since the second half of 2019 gradual fermentation, coupled with increasingly tense geopolitical factors, extended to the 2020 new crown epidemic, in addition to accelerating the demand for the global digital yuan transition, the epidemic more driven by panic stocking, for the semiconductor supply and demand to bring about structural changes. Caused by the foundry capacity serious oversupply of demand for nearly two years of fever has not yet stopped. In view of this, major foundries have announced production expansion or new fabs in 2021 to meet the demand from consumer electronics such as smartphones, TVs, pen drives, game consoles, etc., as well as medium- to long-term technological developments such as servers, cloud, IoT, electric vehicles/autonomous vehicles, 5G base stations, etc. TrendForce estimates that the global 8-inch wafer foundry annual average capacity will be 1.5 times higher than the average capacity in the same period in 2022, with a growth rate of 1.5 times higher than the average capacity in the same period. TrendForce estimates that in 2022, the average annual capacity of 8-inch wafer foundry will increase by approximately 6%, and that of 12-inch will increase by approximately 14%. Among them, more than half of the 12-inch new capacity will be for the mature process (1Xnm and above), which is the most in short supply, and it is expected that the extremely tense chip shortage wave can be a little bit of a respite at this stage.
Third, 2022 smartphone production is expected to rebound
It is expected that under the premise of the slowing down of the impact of the new Crown Pneumonia epidemic, 2022 smartphones are expected to return to the 2019 level, and it is estimated that the annual production performance will be 1.39 billion, a year-on-year growth of about 3.5%. In terms of specification innovation, the proportion of market share of folding machine continues to increase, but due to the lack of killer application to promote its market share, the growth rate is slow; the rest of the specification is focused on the optimization of the existing functions, the innovation amplitude is not high. 5G issues, benefited from the Chinese government to actively promote the 5G commercial transfer, and led to the global market share of 2021 to climb rapidly to 37%, and now that the market coverage has reached eighty percent of the market, and the driving force has slowed down, and will be accompanied by the global 5G base in the future, and the market will continue to grow. The driving force has also slowed down, and then the global 5G base station coverage rate will be steadily increased upwards, and it is estimated that the penetration rate of 5G cell phones will have the opportunity to reach 47% in 2022. On the whole, the 2022 smartphone market development observation focus is still mainly on the epidemic change, on the other hand, next year, the wafer foundry capacity supply is still quite tight, for the resources of the components to obtain, as well as the cost of cell phone cost is also a major observation focus.
Fourth, the three main battlefield of the Internet of Things in 2022
Riding on the 5G and semiconductor industry boom, the Internet of Things in 2022, nearly 20 billion connected devices will continue to be based on artificial intelligence, and to take the criticality (Critical) and sustainability (Sustainability) through the Internet of Things industry in the coming year the two main pillars of the development of the industry, which will bring out the three main technology battlefield, including the demand for the Internet of Things. Three main technology battlegrounds, including the green Internet of Things (IoT) that appeals to environmental sustainability and decarbonization, the space IoT that focuses on the universality and connectivity of everything, and the meta-universe IoT that focuses on data algorithms and mirroring reality. Each of these technologies is expected to become a beachhead for major industry players to make cross-domain layouts, as well as the main design axis for IoT products and services. Extending this foundation to terminal applications, IoT will empower multiple vertical fields with more stable, real-time, energy-saving and predictive benefits in 2022; and among mainstream IoT applications in the market, it is expected that environmental monitoring and epidemic prevention and management in smart cities, home security and immersive entertainment in smart families, virtual-reality integration and digital simulation in smart manufacturing, as well as remote services and precision medicine in smart healthcare will be the four core areas to assist enterprises in the post-surgery and post-preventive industries. The company's core business is to help businesses transform and evolve in the post-event era.
V. Server shipments will grow 4~5% in 2022
In recent years, due to the popularity of 5G and smart terminal devices, most application services are integrated through the cloud, end-to-end, and the network, especially those that rely on huge amounts of data for computation and training; along with the development of virtualization platforms and cloud storage technology, this has led to a growing demand for servers. As a result, TrendForce estimates that server shipments in 2021 and 2022 can reach 4~5% growth. 2021 server supply chain is still affected by the epidemic, and the demand for early stocking is obvious, which has led to stronger purchasing momentum for components at all levels than at the beginning of the epidemic, which is not only reflected in the purchase orders for server DRAMs in the first half of this year, but also accelerates the cycle of DRAM price evolution. This situation is not only reflected in server DRAM purchase orders in the first half of this year, but also accelerates the cycle of DRAM price evolution. In addition, as the epidemic has led to changes in work patterns and lifestyles, including telecommuting and teaching, the expansion of demand for cloud application services (SaaS), and the choice of more flexible models (IaaS, PaaS) for infrastructure spending by enterprises, cloud topics continue to ferment, also boosting the expansion of overall server demand. Among them, this year, most of the enterprises for the infrastructure procurement behavior gradually from the previous high input threshold of capital expenditure, shifted to a more flexible and elastic operating costs, so in addition to the existing server purchase orders, but also accelerated the transfer to the cloud (Cloud Digital Transformation), so up to the third quarter of this year, Dell, HPE, led by the enterprise server The company's newest product is a new, more advanced, and more advanced version of the company's product line, which is now available on the market.
Sixth, the electric car into a period of rapid development
The world in the decarbonization of the voice of the rising, countries continue to regulations and policies affecting the country's vehicle electrification speed, and attempts to localization of the electric car industry chain, and actively strive for enterprises to set up factories. The entire industry is preparing for the mainstream market shift to electric vehicles, as models and sales continue to rise, car manufacturers are faced with a number of transformation of the required strategic planning, coupled with the chip shortage storm has not yet subsided, the epidemic interfered with the stability of the supply chain, so that the "ensure supply, flexible management" is extremely important, 2022 will continue to be on the semiconductor, battery and closed loop ecological chain of three key areas. In 2022, we will continue to lay out the three key areas of semiconductors, batteries and closed-loop ecosystems. In terms of autonomous driving, along with the chip computing power, sensor performance, as well as 5G coverage increases and regulations released, Level 3 ~ Level 4 autonomous driving will be implemented in commercial vehicles and passenger cars, self-driving commercial vehicles to expand commercial services, passenger cars are equipped with the function of automated driving technology, in which the ODD (operation design domain) design is an important part of the operation design domain, which is the most important part of the operation design domain, and the most important part of the operation design domain. The design of ODD (operation design domain) is an important condition for self-driving commercial vehicles, and the "conditional self-driving function" has become an industry and social *** knowledge.
Seven, large-size panel supply and demand ratio began to ease
The panel boom brought up by the outbreak of the epidemic gradually subsided, and from the second half of 2021 onwards, the panel industry has entered a new turn. Component supply is no longer a comprehensive shortage, only specific key components are still at risk of shortage. But on the demand side, along with the demand for fever, the past year's excessive stockpiling, as well as poor logistics and the sequelae are surfacing one by one, the market is bound to take a short period of time to digest. However, in the Korean factory postponed the exit of the TFT-LCD market time, while several panel factory again started a new round of expansion plans, which are letting the market supply and demand is gradually to the direction of relaxation, large-size panel supply and demand ratio of 5.4% in 2021, is expected to supply and demand ratio of 2022 will be up to 7.3%, it is conceivable that the panel price will be a period of time to show a weak trend, whether it can be created again to rebound opportunity, it is The test of the panel factory in the crop rate, product mix, as well as how to adjust the level of profitability.
In the cell phone market, AMOLED panel technology is gradually maturing, gradually expanding the market size, penetration rate is expected to increase from 42% in 2021 to 47% in 2022, and further compression of LTPS LCD in the cell phone market development, tend to make the panel makers actively LTPS LCD production capacity to the medium-sized applications. However, the output of AMOLED panels may still be subject to the current supply of OLED DDI is still tight, so that in 2022 AMOLED panels and LTPS LCD panels in the cell phone market growth is still a little suspense.
Eight, the brand set off Micro & Mini LED display industry to upgrade the new era
2022 will be Mini LED and Micro LED in the new display gradually commercialized incremental year, the brand has been out of the previous wait-and-see approach to a pragmatic way to Micro LED and Mini LED planning in their own brand new products. The brand has already shifted from the previous wait-and-see approach to a pragmatic way of planning Micro LED and Mini LED in their own brand new products, in order to take the lead in the layout, prioritize and seize the dominant right of technology and supply in the supply chain of Micro and Mini LED, and at the same time have a high degree of price making ability in the price. As Apple and Samsung in 2021, that is, respectively, launched Mini LED backlight applications in flat panel and TV light source, also have their own priority to master the Mini LED backlight playing pieces of key technology, with a high degree of technical content of the COB (Chip On Board) program, as the Mini LED backlight, so that Mini LED in the backlight arrangement of a smaller spacing, Mini LED distribution on the backplane. The distribution density of Mini LED on the backlight will be greatly improved, and with a finer driving method, it realizes high backlight zoning to meet the high contrast effect of millions of grades, opening the gap with the contrast effect of traditional LEDs, and directly benchmarking the high contrast effect of OLEDs, which enhances the product highlights and promotes the opportunity of industrial upgrading. Not only that, Samsung in addition to the new display in addition to using Mini LED as a backlight, but also across the LED chip smaller Micro LED, applied in the self-illuminated large display, will create the next wave of new display industry upgrade trend.
Nine, augmented reality, virtual reality devices combined shipments will reach 12.02 million units
With the fermentation of meta-universe and other issues to once again drive the augmented reality, virtual reality, coupled with the epidemic prompted by the digital transformation has also boosted the popularity of AR, VR in the remote interactive applications, which will lead to more vendors and products across the field, it is expected that augmented reality, virtual reality devices combined shipments will be in 2022, the first time in the world that the world has seen an increase in the number of devices in the market, but also a decrease in the number of devices. It is estimated that the combined shipment of augmented reality and virtual reality devices will reach 12.02 million units in 2022. In the pursuit of a more realistic second virtual world, in addition to the development of hardware specifications for augmented reality/virtual reality headsets, it will also be extended to the tracking sensation of hands and limbs, haptic feedback on controllers or wearable devices, and even acoustic functions on headphones. In addition to commercial applications, standalone virtual reality devices with more camera modules, including sensor design, will become a more common choice for the consumer market, if coupled with a more mature 5G network environment, virtual communities and multi-person interaction and other applications will be the key to the 2022 manufacturers to invest.