Major listed companies in the industry: At present, the listed companies in the smart pension industry in China mainly include Yanhua Intelligent (002 178), Wanda Information (300 168), Yihualu (3002 12), Kangtai Medical (300869) and Jiu 'an Medical (002439).
The core data of this paper: population structure, market size, pension mode and competition pattern.
General situation of industry
1, definition
Smart pension, also known as smart pension, refers to the integrated application of information technologies and products such as health care electronics, Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data and mobile Internet. And human body signs, home environment and other data, so as to realize the information interconnection and analysis among families, community medical institutions, health care institutions and professional medical institutions, provide intelligent, personalized and diversified products and services, and meet the increasingly urgent needs of the people for health care.
According to the classification of "Promotion Catalogue of Smart Health Medical Products and Services (2020 Edition)" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and National Health Commission, China's smart health medical products mainly include wearable health management equipment, portable health monitoring equipment, self-service health testing equipment, intelligent nursing equipment and home robots. Intelligent health care services for the elderly mainly include six categories: chronic disease management, home health care for the elderly, personalized health management, internet health consultation, life care, and informatization of old-age care institutions.
2. Analysis of industrial chain: The industrial chain is long and involves many industries.
According to forward-looking analysis, there are advanced technologies such as Internet of Things and cloud services in the upstream of the service chain of smart pension. The supply of core components such as chips and sensors of smart devices, as well as services such as care worker training and pension finance; Among them, advanced technology and the supply of core components of intelligent equipment are the main differences between intelligent pension and traditional pension.
The middle reaches of the industrial chain are all kinds of intelligent old-age products and service providers, and the downstream are home-based old-age care, community-based old-age care and institutional old-age care.
Development course of the industry: it started late and has entered a stage of rapid development.
The domestic smart pension industry started relatively late. In 2007, Hu Liming, vice president of Intelligent Building Branch of China Construction Industry Association, published "New Digital Home Care Community Solution" and proposed "Digital Care for the Aged". 20 10, academic circles began to use the concept of "information-based pension"; 20 1 1 the concept of "supporting the elderly through science and technology" appeared; In 20 12, the national office for the aged first put forward the concept of "intelligent pension".
Judging from the current technical and economic situation, the cultivation period of the industry is about 20 15-20 17. During this period, laws, regulations, policies, standards, innovation system and credible trading environment will be gradually established, and many enterprises will continue to innovate. 20 18-2020 will be the promotion period of the industry. During this period, various enterprises adapted to the smart pension industry were basically established, innovative smart pension service models emerged constantly, and the investment and financing market was very active. The important turning point of the development of smart pension industry is around 202 1 year. After 202 1, the scale of the intangible market based on the network will gradually approach the scale of the traditional tangible market, and the smart pension industry will enter a rapid development stage at this time.
Industry policy background: the policy continues to be blessed and the industry benefits for a long time.
Under the background of the aging population, the central government has successively issued relevant policies to promote intelligent old-age care. 2011/in September 7, the State Council released the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of China's Aging Cause, proposing to speed up the construction of home-based care service information system, do a good job in the pilot work of home-based care service information platform, and gradually expand the pilot scope.
Since then, the words "informatization construction of the aged care service industry" have been mentioned in many policies, such as Several Opinions on Accelerating the Development of the Aged Care Service Industry and Implementation Opinions on Encouraging Private Capital to Participate in the Development of the Aged Care Service Industry.
In 20 13, the National Committee on Aging established the "National Expert Committee on Intelligent Pension" to guide the intelligent pension service and industrial development in China. In 20 15, the State Council issued "Guiding Opinions on Actively Promoting the" internet plus "Action", which clearly put forward the goal and task of "promoting the development of smart and healthy pension industry". The Action Plan for the Development of Smart and Healthy Pension Industry (20 17-2020) released on 2017 proposed to accelerate the development of smart and healthy pension industry, and planned related goals.
In 20021year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Health and Health Commission issued the Action Plan for the Development of Smart and Healthy Pension Industry (20021-2025), which proposed to further promote the development of smart and healthy pension industry and set relevant goals. These favorable policies and information mean that smart pension has begun to rise to the national strategic level.
Current situation of industry development
1, the proportion of the elderly population continues to rise, and the "silver-haired economy" is booming.
-The aging population has deepened and residents' health concerns have increased.
Judging from the age composition of the population, the proportion of people aged 65,438+05-64 in China has been declining in recent years, while the proportion of people aged 65 and over has been increasing year by year, and the problem of population aging has become increasingly serious. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2020, the proportion of population aged 0- 14 in China will be 17.9%, 15-64 will be 68.6%, and the proportion of population aged 65 and over will be 13.5%. 202 1 According to the preliminary statistical data published in the Statistical Bulletin of National Economic and Social Development of People's Republic of China (PRC) 202 1 issued by the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 202 1, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in China had exceeded 14%, reaching 14.2%.
People pay more and more attention to health insurance. In recent years, China's health insurance premium income has been increasing. From 20 1 1 to 2020, China's health insurance premium income rose from 69.2 billion yuan to 8 173 billion yuan, especially in 2020, when the COVID-19 epidemic accelerated the development of the health insurance market, and the growth rate of health insurance income was as high as 15.66. In 20021year, China's health insurance income increased again, reaching 844.7 billion yuan, reflecting China's growing concern for health.
-the number of old-age care institutions has increased, and the consumption demand of the elderly has increased rapidly.
In order to cope with the increasing aging trend, the construction and upgrading of old-age care institutions in China have been intensified in recent years, and the level of old-age care services has been continuously improved. In the past five years, the construction of old-age care institutions in China has ushered in rapid growth. By the end of 20021,there were 39,800 residential care institutions in China, and the number of beds in these institutions reached 50 1.6 million.
Note: Before 20 18 years ago, the statistical caliber of old-age care institutions and beds was service institutions for the elderly and the disabled. Since 20 19 years ago, statistics of service institutions for the elderly have been conducted separately.
According to the survey of the national middle-aged and elderly network, 45% of the elderly in China have savings deposits. In 20 16 years, the balance of elderly deposits exceeded 17 trillion yuan, and the per capita deposit was nearly 80,000 yuan. It is estimated that by 2020, the total pension for the elderly will exceed 7 trillion yuan. From 2065438 to 2006, the market demand of China's health care industry for the aged was more than 5 trillion yuan. However, according to incomplete estimates, the products provided for the elderly in 20 16 will be 500 billion to 700 billion yuan, and the demand will continue to be strong, but the effective supply is insufficient. With the increasing supply of health care industry, the market consumption demand of China elderly health care industry will reach about 20 trillion yuan in 2030.
2. Analysis of China's smart pension industry model.
At present, "9073" is the main mode, and the "community" and "home" modes have great room for growth.
At present, there are two modes of providing for the aged in China, namely "9064" and "9073". Among them, the "9064" model was put forward by Beijing, that is, 90% of the elderly care for the elderly through home care with the help of social services, 6% buy community-based care services through the government, and 4% live in pension services. Another mode of providing for the aged in China is the "9073" mode, which was first put forward by Shanghai in the 11th Five-Year Plan, that is, 90% of the elderly are taken care of by their families, 7% enjoy community home-based care services and 3% enjoy institutional care services.
Referring to Japanese and American experiences, it gives China a lot of enlightenment in the aspects of payment system and pension construction. Considering the current situation in China, the future home-based pension mode will become the mainstream trend, and community pension and institutional pension will become important supplements. At present, the main mode of providing for the aged in China is "9073" mode.
The Report on the Demand for Urban Old-age Services in China (202 1) released at the end of 20265438 shows that 52.9% of urban residents are willing to choose home-based old-age care, and the proportion of home-based old-age care has dropped significantly, while the demand for community-based old-age care and institutional old-age care has increased, reaching 26.5% and 20.6% respectively.
-home-based, community-based, and institution-based.
In home-based care for the aged, smart devices and technology products are the assistance of family members. As home-based care for the aged is the main service mode for the aged in China at present, the demand for home-based care for the aged is huge, and the demand for smart home-based care products is huge. However, the smart home-based care industry, which aims at home-based care for the elderly, has a low threshold and a high possibility of commercialization success, and is easy to drive the entire industrial chain, so it is in a priority position.
China's pension industry is based on home, supported by community and supported by institutions. The three models complement each other and influence each other.
3. The market scale of smart pension industry is growing rapidly.
In recent years, with the aging of China's population, the development of silver-haired economy has begun, the development direction of China's smart pension industry has been further clarified, and the industrial scale has been expanding. According to the White Paper on Smart Pension Industry in 20 19 released by Tsinghua University Internet Industry Research Institute, the market size of smart pension industry in China was 0. 17 trillion yuan in 20/4, and it exceeded 4 trillion yuan in 2020, with rapid growth. Looking forward to the future, combined with the penetration rate of smart pension in the overall pension market over the years, the market size of smart pension industry in China may reach 4.57 trillion yuan in 202 1 year.
Industry competition pattern
1. Regional competition: demonstration enterprises are concentrated in economically developed areas.
It can be seen from five batches of 203 smart and healthy pension demonstration enterprises announced by the three ministries and commissions that most provinces in China have launched smart pension pilots, but these pilots are generally concentrated in cities rather than rural areas, and the well-developed pilots are mainly concentrated in developed areas such as Beijing, Shandong and Shanghai. The development of smart old-age care in the central and western regions is characterized by a late start and a low level.
2. Enterprise competition: Information technology companies account for the highest proportion.
Five batches of 203 smart and healthy old-age demonstration enterprises announced by the three ministries and commissions of the country, including 76 information technology companies and 37 medical technology companies, account for half of the whole market.
Among the smart and healthy pension demonstration enterprises, information technology companies account for the highest proportion, reaching 38%, mainly because information technology companies have the following advantages: (1) strong independent research and development capabilities provide a strong driving force for enterprises to continue to innovate; (2) Rich information resources to provide professional and high-quality intelligent services for the aged care industry; (3) Mature products, services and systems for the aged can be popularized and operated in the market; (4) The operation mode and profit mode are clear, and sustainable development is basically realized.
3. Product competition: Intelligent detection equipment has the largest number of finalists
In September, 2020, after local recommendation and expert review, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Health and Wellness Commission formulated the Promotion Catalogue of Smart and Healthy Aged Care Products and Services (2020 Edition), in which 1 18 products were shortlisted in the promotion catalogue of smart and healthy aged care products, with 20 subcategories, including intelligent rehabilitation equipment and intelligent detection equipment.
Note: As of June, 2022, the official has not released the 202 1 version of the promotion catalogue of smart and healthy products and services for the aged.
According to the catalogue of products and services for the promotion of smart and healthy aged care (2020 edition), there are 120 kinds of services in the catalogue of services for the promotion of smart and healthy aged care, and there are 6 sub-categories, among which home health aged care services, life care services and information services for aged care institutions are the most shortlisted, with 39 pieces, 23 pieces and 18 pieces respectively.
Industry development prospect and trend forecast
1, the smart pension market will explode in an all-round way.
2. Four development trends of smart pension industry: humanization, aging adaptability and combination of offline and medical care.
The application of Internet technology can assist the whole pension industry and provide more personalized and targeted services. However, at present, some products and services of China's smart pension industry can not meet the diversified needs of the elderly, and the development of products is still insufficient.
With the acceleration of China's aging population, the smart pension industry will develop in the direction of humanization of service products, integration of health management and offline, and integration of medical care, and establish an integrated management product structure and service system.
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Prospect Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China Smart Pension Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.
What is the prospect of smart pension?
1.
Smart old-age care is a new old-age care model that uses information and communication technology as a tool to connect various service systems and provide old-age care services for the society. Compared with the traditional family pension, community pension and institutional pension, the "smart pension" model has its unique advantages, which also makes the potential of "smart pension" be valued by all parties.
At what stage does wisdom support for the aged develop?
With the intensification of aging and the rise of "silver-haired economy", the smart pension industry has ushered in a good development period under the background of the country's strong support for the pension industry. At present, China's pension industry is mainly based on home, supported by community and supported by institutions. The three models complement each other and influence each other. In the future, with the help of intelligent hardware and intelligent platform, intelligent pension will change from "supporting the elderly" to "using the elderly", and "filial piety" will emerge.
Smart pension is still in the stage of "supporting the elderly"
It is generally believed that "smart pension" was first put forward by the British Life Trust Fund, also known as "all-intelligent pension system", that is, to break the restrictions of time and space and provide high-quality pension services for the elderly. With the continuous development of technology, the connotation of this concept continues to expand. According to the definition of Smart Healthy Pension Industry Development Action Plan (20 17-2020), Smart Healthy Pension refers to the sensor network system and information platform that provides real-time, fast, efficient, low-cost, Internet-based and intelligent pension services for the elderly at home, community and pension institutions. Its specific meaning mainly includes three aspects, namely, wisdom to support the elderly, wisdom to use the elderly, and wisdom to be filial.
Judging from the current technical and economic situation, 20 17 and before can be summarized as the cultivation period of smart old-age service industry. During this period, the regulations, policies, standards, innovation system and credible trading environment that adapt to the aged care service industry will be gradually established, and many smart aged care service enterprises will continue to innovate. 20 18-2020 will be the growth period of smart aged care service industry. After 2020, the scale of the intangible market based on the network will gradually approach the scale of the traditional tangible market. It is expected that the smart old-age service industry will enter an industry explosion period at this time, and the smart old-age service will also change from simply helping the elderly to using filial piety as the generation.
The pattern of smart pension market has been basically established.
(1) From the policy point of view, 20 19 is the first year of the smart pension policy. According to incomplete statistics, in 20 19, the state and local governments issued more than 70 related smart pension policies, while in 20 18, there were only about 50.
(2) From the demand side, in 20 19 years, the number of elderly people over 60 in China has reached about 254 million, accounting for 18. 1% of the national population. According to the relevant data in the General Report of the National Strategy to Deal with Population Aging, China's population aging has entered a stage of rapid development, showing the characteristics of absolute large scale, rapid development, aging and remarkable development. In the coming period, the demand for aged care services in China will show a development trend of paying equal attention to quantity and quality, which will bring great opportunities and challenges to the development of smart aged care industry in China.
(3) From the perspective of competition, the market is still in the stage of incremental killing. According to the statistics of three batches of smart pension demonstration enterprises, the demonstration enterprises include 50 information technology companies, accounting for 43%, followed by 24 pension service companies and 20 medical technology companies. According to the data released by Yiou in May 2065438+2009, there are 3 1 companies involved in the smart pension industry. By combing forward-looking statistics, 12 listed companies focus on the construction of smart pension service platforms, and most of their businesses cut into the smart pension service industry by cooperating with government departments (such as civil affairs bureau) to provide comprehensive solutions.
(4) From the technical point of view, general technologies include simple positioning and human-computer interaction. Functional positioning includes vital signs monitoring, abnormal behavior monitoring of the elderly, blood sugar monitoring and other technologies. Intelligent hardware technology includes wearable devices, portable monitoring devices, self-service detection devices, monitoring devices, home service robots and so on. The service system platform is mainly based on technologies such as big data, cloud computing and 5G mobile Internet.
(5) From the mode point of view: From the analysis of operation mode, the "9073" implemented in China is mainly based on home-based pension, supplemented by community-based pension. From the analysis of service mode, medical care mode is the main mode, supplemented by cultural tourism mode.
(6) From the institutional point of view, the policy system and investment system have completed the "warm-up" work. The technological system of product innovation is being established. From April 2065438 to April 2009, the China Association for the Aged released the Research Report on the Consumption and Demand Willingness of the Elderly from the Demand Side. The report pointed out that there are more than 60,000 kinds of articles for the elderly in the world, while there are more than 40,000 kinds in Japan, accounting for more than two-thirds, and there are only more than 2,000 kinds of products independently developed by China.
China's old-age care model takes home community as the mainstream.
2 1 century, with the continuous improvement of the market economic system, social welfare unemployment has also developed by leaps and bounds. The policy of socialization of social welfare is carried out throughout the country, and the original old-age service model strives for survival in constant change. At the same time, various new forms of old-age care services have sprung up. Old-age care services can be divided into three categories: home-based care, institutional care and community care.
By the end of 20 19, the population over 60 in China was 253.88 million. According to the pattern of "9073" pension service, the number of community nurses in China should be around17.77 million, and according to the pattern of "9064" pension service, there are also around15.23 million.
According to the research trend of smart pension, smart pension can be divided into three modes: smart family, smart community and smart institution. Smart pension is also an important part of smart city construction. "Triple play" supports the implementation of smart old-age care services, completes the service demand with the big data application of "smart city", and realizes the effective docking of multi-window and multi-domain service resources with technical support. At present, all parts of the country are actively exploring the use of modern information technology to provide community home-based care services.
According to China's "9073" service plan for the aged, 90% of the elderly should provide for the aged at home, 7% in the community and 3% in the institutions for the aged. The focus of intelligent old-age care is mainly on community home-based old-age care.
Intelligent equipment and pension platform are the core innovations of intelligent pension.
Intelligent pension industry chain is long, involving many industries, and its smooth development needs the cooperation of government, enterprises, society, community, family and other forces. In recent years, the government has increased its support for related technology enterprises and smart pension products and services through various preferential policies such as purchasing services and site support. At the same time, through various ways such as service outsourcing, we will cooperate with service intermediaries, big data enterprises, Internet enterprises, relevant social organizations and research institutions to give full play to the professional advantages of various pension institutions and carry out collaborative innovation.
According to forward-looking analysis, there are smart devices, pension platforms, care worker training, pension finance, domestic service, cultural life and so on in the upstream of the service chain of smart pension, among which smart devices and pension platforms are the most different parts from traditional pension.
The core problem of institutional pension and community pension in China is that it is difficult to balance operating costs and service quality. Both communities and institutions involve huge construction costs in the early stage, and the mismatch between operating prices and services in the later stage will affect the experience of the elderly. The main reason of home-based care for the elderly in China is to reduce the construction cost involved in the early stage of care for the elderly, but the monitoring of the elderly at home is not perfect.
Intelligent equipment and information platform can alleviate the monitoring problem of home care, the cost problem of community care and institutional care to some extent. From June, 2065438 to June, 2009, the "internet plus" Smart Pension Project in Chunxitang, Zhejiang Province was launched, and the intelligent terminal and smart pension platform were used to build a nursing home without walls. The government provides smart devices for eligible low-income people, people living alone, empty nesters and the elderly free of charge through subsidies for aged care services and government purchase services. Ai Guan Ai, a smart pension expert, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Chun Xitang to provide intelligent terminal devices-Ai Guan Ai whale smart bracelet, S3 smart watch, Ai Guan Ai remote intelligent medical sphygmomanometer, and build a unified and open pension service system with intelligent terminal devices as the service entrance and smart health pension service information platform.
The development direction of intelligent hardware is personalization and diversification.
2065438+February 2007, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the National Health and Family Planning Commission, issued the Action Plan for the Development of Smart and Healthy Pension Industry (20 17-2020), proposing to enrich the supply of smart and healthy pension service products. For different application environments such as families, communities and institutions, we will develop wearable health management equipment, portable health monitoring equipment, self-service health monitoring equipment, intelligent old-age care monitoring equipment and home service robots to meet diversified and personalized health care needs. The intelligent hardware industry can focus on the development of intelligent health care service products supported by the state.
The smart pension platform revolves around healthy life, happy life and peace of mind.
Nowadays, intelligent pension platform has become a popular trend for the elderly. The smart pension platform is built by using information technologies such as Internet of Things, Internet, mobile Internet technology, smart calling, cloud technology and GPS positioning technology.
The intelligent service mode of "system+service+elderly+terminal" greatly helps the old-age care institutions to improve their management efficiency, covering various forms of old-age care such as institutional pension, home-based pension and community day care, so that the elderly can enjoy professional and intelligent services at home. The future smart pension platform will provide superior pension services for the elderly, effectively monitor their physical condition, safety and daily activities, and fully meet their needs in life, health, safety and entertainment.
The scale of smart pension industry will exceed 4 trillion
In recent years, stimulated by the deep integration of domestic information technology industry and health care industry, according to the statistics of China Industrial Economic Information Network, the scale of smart health care industry in China was nearly 3.2 trillion yuan in 20 19, and the compound growth rate in the past three years exceeded 18%. It is estimated that the industrial scale will exceed 4 trillion yuan by 2020.