2 1 Century Business Herald reporter learned that the meeting mainly focused on comprehensively implementing urban renewal actions to promote high-quality urban development; Steadily implement the long-term mechanism scheme of real estate to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market; Vigorously develop rental housing to solve the outstanding housing problems in big cities; Strengthen urban governance and promote the construction of cities with disaster resistance; Implement rural construction actions to improve the level of rural construction; Accelerate the development of "China Architecture" and promote the transformation and upgrading of the construction industry; Continue to promote reform and innovation and strengthen the construction of laws, regulations and standards systems; Strengthen the overall leadership of the Party and build a contingent of high-quality cadres, and arrange housing and urban and rural construction.
Among them, in this meeting, the urban renewal action was put in the first place, and the "three stabilities" were not mentioned in the regulation work arrangement. Many other points deserve attention.
The policy of "promoting domestic demand" is in the first place
At this year's housing and construction work conference, the work that was put in the first place was the related work content of "comprehensively implementing urban renewal actions and promoting high-quality urban development".
Urban renewal is an important starting point for expanding domestic demand. Earlier, Wang, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, also mentioned in an article reading the "Proposal" of the 14th Five-Year Plan that the implementation of urban renewal is an important path to firmly implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and build a new pattern of development. "Planning and promoting a series of livelihood projects and development projects in the field of urban construction is conducive to fully releasing the great potential of China's development, forming new economic growth points, cultivating new development momentum, smoothing the domestic cycle, and promoting the long-term, sustained and healthy development of China's economy."
Although real estate investment will still maintain a high growth in 2020, mainly driven by land purchase fees, it is weak in Jian 'an investment that really stimulates domestic demand. At the same time, some leading indicators also show that real estate investment may decline next year. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the newly started area of commercial housing in the previous 1 1 month decreased by 2.0% year-on-year, but it failed to turn positive. In terms of land purchase area, the previous 165438+ 10 decreased by 5.2% year-on-year, and the decline continued to expand.
Gu Yunchang, president of the National Federation of Real Estate Chambers of Commerce, told 2 1 Century Business Herald that on the one hand, at this year's Central Economic Work Conference, the strategic basis of "persisting in expanding domestic demand" was emphasized, and the relevant layout of the work conference of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also followed the spirit of the Central Conference. On the other hand, since 20 17 years, the sales area of real estate has maintained a high level of about 1700 million square meters every year for four consecutive years, with a huge increase. From the perspective of rational development of land resources, it is difficult to maintain such rapid development in the future. Therefore, it is an inevitable choice to shift the development goal to the stock. In the past, the shed reform and the transformation of old residential areas, which only focused on housing problems, shifted to urban renewal activities that systematically focused on the operation and development efficiency of the whole city, and will also promote the domestic demand to shift from housing to more and greater perspectives.
The long-term mechanism has gradually landed.
At this working meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the urban renewal action of "promoting domestic demand" was listed as the primary task, while the regulation policies of 20 18 and 20 19, which have been the headlines of the working meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development for two consecutive years, retreated to the second line.
The working meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed to steadily implement the long-term mechanism plan of real estate to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Firmly adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, fully implement the long-term mechanism of real estate, strengthen the responsibility of urban subjects, improve the mechanisms of policy coordination, regulation and control linkage, monitoring and early warning, public opinion guidance and market supervision, and maintain the smooth operation of the real estate market.
Many interviewees pointed out to the reporters of 265438+20th Century Business Herald that "policy coordination, regulatory linkage, monitoring and early warning, public opinion guidance, market supervision and other mechanisms." It is an integral part of a long-term supervision mechanism that combines market-oriented and administrative supervision with ex ante and ex post supervision.
In this regard, Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of RealData, said that in 2020, even if the epidemic had an impact on economic development, real estate regulation and control did not relax, but the recovery of local markets led to the intensive introduction of "one city, one policy" in the second half of the year. According to statistics, more than 20 cities have introduced policies to restrict purchases, loans and sales.
However, many interviewees stressed that the gradual implementation of the "long-term mechanism" does not mean that short-term regulation will be withdrawn soon, which requires a long process. Gu Yunchang pointed out that both "taking measures according to local conditions" mentioned in the real estate part of this year's Central Economic Work Conference and "strengthening the main responsibility of the city" mentioned in this housing construction work conference are short-term regulation led by local governments, and it is difficult to quit in a short time.
In addition, in this statement, it is worth noting that the requirements of "stable land prices, stable housing prices and stable expectations" that have been emphasized many times before are not mentioned in the work arrangement.
In this regard, Xu Xiaole believes that "three stabilities" are actually the normalization goals necessary to establish a long-term mechanism. In the context of the overall stability of the real estate market this year, there is no need to overemphasize it. However, some analysts believe that not mentioning the "three stabilities" will help local governments to adopt a more diversified policy mix.
Similar to the Central Economic Work Conference, this housing construction work conference once again emphasized rectifying the order of the rental market, "standardizing the development of the housing rental market, accelerating the cultivation of specialized and large-scale housing rental enterprises, and establishing and improving the housing rental management service platform. Rectify the order of the leasing market and standardize market behavior. "
This is obviously related to the outbreak of many long-term rental apartments in 2020. Many analysts believe that the policy adjustment of the rental market in 20021year will become the focus.
Gu Yunchang, on the other hand, thinks that the adjustment of rental policy that is compatible with the construction of housing market system and security system can also be divided into government-led rental housing policy adjustment and rental market policy adjustment. Among them, for policy rental housing such as public rental housing, the problem of "accuracy" needs to be solved, and the policy boundary, target group and input-output should be clarified; However, the rental market needs to solve the problem of standardization.
Among them, in view of the frequent "thunder" leasing market, Xu Xiaole pointed out that the problems existing in leasing mainly lie in three aspects. First, the rights of demand-side tenants are not guaranteed; Second, the supply of rental housing in big cities is insufficient; Third, the development of the leasing market is not standardized. Therefore, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, a series of policies should be introduced to break through these three major problems. For example, lease the Legislative Council to implement the basic rights of tenants, including not arbitrarily raising rents and not arbitrarily expelling tenants, so that tenants can enjoy basic public services fairly. From the supply side, the land supply plan is specially allocated to reduce the land cost and improve the rental return rate. In order to encourage real estate enterprises to develop and operate rental housing, enterprises are given policy support in financing and taxation, and the securitization of housing assets is accelerated.