"This is a profound and practical investor risk education, and everyone should pay for it, including QDII as an institution." A person from Shen Yin Universal Hongkong Company said. Bian Xiao compiled the necessary risks of investing in Hong Kong stocks here for your reference. I hope everyone will gain something in the reading process!
Hong Kong stocks are a paradise for the wise and a hell for fools.
165438+ 10 In June, mainland funds flowing into the Hong Kong stock market through various channels suffered the first storm since they went to sea.
"This is a profound and practical investor risk education, and everyone should pay for it, including QDII as an institution." A person from Shen Yin Universal Hongkong Company said.
China Petroleum Superstition
165438+1On October 5th, China Petroleum landed in A shares.
As the largest and most profitable company in China, various funds are convinced that H shares of China Petroleum will dance a beautiful line with newly listed A shares.
Unfortunately, it backfired.
On the first day, the price of 48.62 yuan became the best opportunity for experienced Hong Kong investors to sell H shares of China Petroleum in reverse.
Zhou, a researcher at Southwest Securities, believes that such a deep adjustment decline does not rule out the possibility of international capital taking profits and taking the opportunity to ship.
The data shows that on the 5th, the total turnover of PetroChina ranked first in Hong Kong stocks, and the total amount of short selling of PetroChina in the whole day reached165438+99 million Hong Kong dollars, accounting for more than 10% of the total short selling of Hong Kong stocks in the whole day.
Since then, under the bad news that the American economy will enter a recession cycle and the through train of Hong Kong stocks will be suspended, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fluctuates violently every day, and it is common to have thousands of meals.
In just 15 trading days, the H-share price of China Petroleum has been falling along with the A-share price. As of June 23rd, 165438+, the H-share price of China Petroleum has dropped from HK$ 20.25 to HK$ 14.28.
Investors who once called Buffett "ignorant of China stock market" and kept hoarding H shares of China Petroleum near the high of HK$ 20 suffered heavy losses.
"PetroChina's adjustment of H shares this time is a systematic adjustment. I believe that there may be 20%-30% room for this adjustment. " Dahua Jixian Company believes that.
Fossil wheel stimulation
In fact, the loss of 20%-30% in buying and selling Hong Kong stocks is still within the acceptable risk range of domestic investors, and a sudden drop of 80% seems unacceptable.
And this "miracle" is a normal thing for Hong Kong stocks. At the top of the risk golden tower of Hong Kong stocks is a nest wheel, which gathers all the risks of Hong Kong stocks and the stock market and breaks out at a certain point in time. Those mainland funds who thought they understood the secret of "blue chip of A-shares pulled by institutions-linkage of H-shares-corresponding to the skyrocketing H-shares" and began to bet on China Petroleum's A-share listing in May 438+10 that the H-shares would skyrocket, suffered heavy losses.
According to public information, from August 17 to August 10/7, * * there was a net inflow of about HK$ 2.7 billion into Hong Kong stock warrants.
Among them, the net inflow of PetroChina warrants is about 800 million yuan, and the net inflow of Sinochem warrants is about 600 million yuan.
On June 5438+00 and June 5438+05, the turnover of the Hong Kong stock market exceeded HK$ 450 billion, a record high. Judging from the transaction data of the day, PetroChina's sleeping wheel became the most traded sleeping wheel in the market, with a turnover of HK$ 65.438+0.035 billion, accounting for 22.4% of the total turnover of the day!
According to a person in the securities industry in Hong Kong, taking June 5438+00 as an example, the total turnover of warrants in the Hong Kong market was 40 billion. Through communication with some mainland banks and brokers, it is found that people who used to stock in the mainland may account for half of the total trading volume. Moreover, this ratio can only be used in individual warrants, and it cannot be said that this ratio is the ratio of mainland speculation in Hong Kong warrants.
The speculation of domestic hot money inflow on PetroChina's nest wheel is obvious.
The statistics of this journal also show that the subscription card of PetroChina has been continuously absorbed by funds in the past period of time, and the number of street goods has risen from10.6 billion at the beginning of October to more than10.8 billion at present, a full increase of more than 7 billion, and the capital inflow is huge.
The H-share market of China Petroleum, which has been hyped up by the market, has also seen a wave of selling like stocks.
165438+ On the day when China Petroleum A shares were listed, among the top 20 warrants in the Hong Kong market, only China Petroleum had five warrants, with an average decline of more than 25%; 6-day average decline 15%, 7-day average decline 10%. It fell by nearly 50% in three days.
Fan, a securities researcher, pointed out that due to the different leverage, the short-term warrants approaching maturity will fluctuate more here. Take "9956" which expired on February 8 18 this year as an example. In the two trading days near the 5th, its total decline has exceeded 30%.
Horribly, in the same trading day of 15, the price of China petroleum warrants such as "6070" dropped from 0.45 yuan to 0.09 yuan, a drop of 80%. This means that 6.5438+0 million has been invested, leaving only 200,000.
Fan believes that the enlarged trading volume of Hong Kong stocks and Wolun shows that the Hong Kong stock market has become a place where global hot money is concentrated. On the other hand, at present, warrant transactions in Hong Kong market account for about 30% of the daily market turnover, which shows that market speculation is more serious.
It is not only domestic individual investors who pay the risk tuition fees, but also QDII funds collectively "eat dry rice".
Judging from the net value data of QDII funds just released, QDII funds have suffered a total loss, with the total loss approaching 654.38+000 billion yuan.
Market participants pointed out that from the current situation, QDII funds have not played a role in diversifying investors' risks.
As of165438+1October 23rd, the net value of QDII funds shows that the latest net value of Southern Global Select Allocation Fund is 0.947 yuan, that of Huaxia Global Select Fund is 0.9 15 yuan, that of Harvest Overseas China Fund is 0.894 yuan, and that of Morgan Asia-Pacific Advantage Fund, which has just been established for less than one month, is 0.908 yuan. The floating loss is at least 5.3% and at most 10.6%.
If the initial shares of the four funds are $4 billion each, the current floating losses of the four funds are $65.438+34 billion.
In this regard, people from all over Shen Yin said: "Although the price of H shares is generally 50% lower than that of A shares, this is not the reason why investing in Hong Kong stocks is too expensive. The risks of investing in Hong Kong stocks come from several aspects, including: differences in regulatory rules, and no restrictions on price increases and decreases; Influenced by the international market; The Hong Kong dollar is depreciating against the RMB; Referring to the mature market level, the P/E ratio of Hong Kong stocks has no room for growth. Before selling Hong Kong stocks, investors must weigh the advantages and disadvantages of all aspects, otherwise they will at least pay the opportunity cost. "
interconnection
I. Exchange rate risk
Buying and selling Hong Kong stocks with Hong Kong dollars naturally involves exchange rate risks, especially those who use RMB to buy foreign exchange investments. Since Hong Kong's Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar is expected to be strong, and the appreciation of RMB against Hong Kong dollar will not stop in the short term. The income of individuals investing in Hong Kong stocks is Hong Kong dollars. If you switch to RMB, you will bear the risk of depreciation.
Second, the market risk of internationalization
Different from the mainland's self-contained and relatively closed operation mode, the completely open Hong Kong stock market has free access to international funds, very active transactions and high international relevance. The financial and economic policies of other countries will directly affect the rise and fall of the stock market, which fluctuates greatly. It can be said that any trouble in the international financial market will cause fluctuations in the Hong Kong stock market. For example, the recent subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has had a great impact on Hong Kong stocks.
Third, the risk of short selling mechanism.
The Hong Kong market has launched index futures, and the short-selling mechanism of the Hong Kong stock market and the A-share market has very different operating characteristics.
Four. There is no risk of price limit.
The biggest direct impact on investors is that the Hong Kong market has no price limit, unlike the mainland 10% or 5% price limit, and its trading adopts the T+0 method, that is, it can be sold on the same day, which is somewhat similar to the current trading method of A-share market warrants. It is not new that H-share stocks fall 15% in one day. The bull market in Hong Kong in recent years has certainly created some bull stocks that have increased by more than ten times in recent years, but at the same time, the stock price has also fallen by 90% in a short time.
Verb (abbreviation for verb) Risk of valuation difference
Although the H-share market has more room for growth than the A-share market, and the different prices of A+H shares also provide opportunities for long-term neutral arbitrage, due to the long-term objective existence of market segmentation and foreign exchange control, as well as the differences in institutions, systems, investors' basic composition, products and tools, the valuation differences of A+H companies will also exist for a long time. At present, many institutions and individuals are optimistic about the Hong Kong stock market, thinking that its price-earnings ratio of more than 20 times is much higher than that of mainland A shares of more than 40 times. In fact, as a mature market, the valuation of the Hong Kong market is generally reasonable. It would be a disaster if the price of A shares is used to determine H shares.
Six, the risk of information asymmetry
Different from the A-share market, at present, mainland residents' access to information in the Hong Kong market is very limited. The lack of information makes investors lose more than the domestic market once they invest impulsively and choose stocks carelessly.
Seven, the risk of new shares falling below the issue price
In terms of subscription of new shares, Hong Kong securities firms can provide a financing line of 1:9, and investors do not need to occupy a lot of their own funds, so the winning rate is generally high, but it is worth noting that it is more common for new shares in Hong Kong market to fall below the issue price.
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