Since the beginning of the year, the a-share market has been in turmoil and friends are shivering.
Data shows that on February 10, the three major a-share indices diverged. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17%, but the Shenzhen Composite Index and GEM Index both fell. Especially the GEM index to hold 2800 points, closing at 2826.52 points, down 1.98% for the day.
From the sectoral point of view, among the CITIC Primary Industries, consumer services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and coal rose 3.95%, 2.71% and 2.33% respectively; while machinery, household appliances, electric power equipment, and new energy declined by 1.43%, 2.03% and 3.00% respectively.
Market shock, the market should be how to layout? This fund interviewed a number of investment researchers, they believe that although the index is hot and cold, but there are investment opportunities behind the adjustment, a stock of the spring market may still be on the way.
The mainstream indices are diverging.
The Spring Festival a-share market is still on the way.
Talking about the current market pattern, Boshi Fund said that today's a-share trend is once again differentiated, the Shanghai Composite Index shocked upward, the GEM fell nearly 2%, individual stocks fell more than rise less. This year, the global market overall performance is not very good, a stock performance is not satisfactory.
Bosch Fund said, in the domestic economy under the background of increasing downward pressure, the central economic work conference once again put forward the "economic construction as the center", a number of policies conducive to "stable growth" introduced. Easy money cycle continues, the overall liquidity is abundant. But a stock did not rise as expected, indicating that the current monetary policy and liquidity conditions are no longer the main factors determining the market, the economic environment has a greater impact on the market trend. At present, the overall market sentiment is weak, short-term a-share will still maintain the pattern of oscillation. Benefit from the policy support of the large infrastructure plate, the recent certainty is relatively high, will be more favored by the funds.
In this regard, the Golden Eagle Fund also believes that with the gradual stabilization and improvement of market sentiment, the a-share spring market may still be on the way. After the Spring Festival, before the two sessions, China is entering the "stable growth", "policy strength moderately ahead of the" observation period, the domestic liquidity environment tends to relax. After the Fed raised interest rates, it is expected that the suppression of overseas and domestic funding factors will subside, followed by bank credit, fund issuance, self-purchase and other capital stock will improve. With the return of foreign capital and other funds, confidence in the a-share market is also expected to be boosted.
Talking about the trend of GEM, Rongtong GEM index fund manager Cai Zhiwei bluntly said "GEM pullback ushered in the medium and long term configuration window". He expects the a-share market in 2023 may show a wide range of oscillation shock market, the GEM medium and long term trend to remain optimistic.
Cai Zhiwei concluded that since January 2023, the a-share market has fallen continuously, digesting the high valuation of some high boom tracks in the past three years of the bull market. a-share's current valuation level has returned to a reasonably low level; from the point of view of corporate profitability, a-share non-financial enterprises in 2023 will be high in the front and then low in the back of the profitability, is expected to be in the first quarter of 2023 ROE topped out, and the full-year growth rate is expected to be In the low single digits. From the point of view of asset allocation, the long-term trend of residents' asset allocation to equity assets remains unchanged. From a structural point of view, industry differentiation is expected to be balanced. First, stable growth assets. With the overall downward adjustment of RRR and the expected relaxation of real estate-related financing policies, low-valued real estate leaders, banks, brokerage firms and infrastructure chains will benefit from the stable growth policy. Secondly, high boom industries are expected to recover strength after digesting valuation in the near future, including the new energy automobile industry chain, new infrastructure of photovoltaic and wind power.
Overall, Cai Zhiwei believes that the current stock market valuation is at a moderately low level, the domestic policy is loose, but this year's corporate earnings are relatively weak. We expect that the a-share market in 2023 may show a wide range of shock shock market, the medium and long term trend of the GEM to remain optimistic: First, from the policy side, the policy inflection point has appeared, the central economic work conference set the tone of "stable"; the central bank on January 17, the first interest rate cuts have also confirmed the "stable growth "The continued landing. We believe that the subsequent monetary policy and fiscal policy is expected to continue to strengthen. Secondly, from the perspective of index earnings growth, GEM earnings growth advantage has been expanded: 2021, the major market index earnings growth is generally higher, but 2023 will be differentiated. GEM index earnings growth is expected to be much better than CSI 300 and the entire market; third, from the valuation level, after this round of adjustment, 2023 GEM earnings growth and its valuation match has returned to a cost-effective and appropriate level; fourth, from the point of view of asset allocation, the long-term trend of the transfer of the resident's asset allocation to the equity assets remains unchanged.
No pessimism about the market
Bosch Fund also said that the recent new energy automobile plate retracement is larger, mainly due to the Federal Reserve interest rate hike to suppress the global growth plate valuation, the short-term market in the domestic strong and stable growth is expected to be the background of the stable growth plate preference enhancement, the current market lack of incremental entry funds, the new energy automobile plate formed a stage of suppression.
At this point in time, Bosera is still firmly optimistic about the investment opportunities in the new energy automobile industry. Globally, the policy of new energy vehicles is increasing, which is in line with the theme of carbon neutrality and the direction of energy saving and emission reduction, and is also one of the ways to promote consumption and domestic demand in China. At present, the global penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still less than 10%, the industry still has a high degree of prosperity, long-term growth is certain.
In addition, after the previous retracement, the plate valuation has been gradually close to the bottom of history, industry fundamentals at the same time in the short and medium term upward stage. Bosera Fund believes that the darkest moment of the new energy automobile plate has passed, the future retracement will not be too large. The current valuation is more cost-effective than before the adjustment, relatively more optimistic about the performance of the industry chain core leading companies.
Nordic fund manager Yan said, optimistic about the new energy automobile market segment is - diaphragm. Diaphragm is one of the main materials of lithium batteries. Although only 10% of the total cost of the battery, but the performance and safety of the battery plays a crucial role. Diaphragm technology content is high, equipment investment, making the industry structure is relatively clear, the head of the enterprise concentration is relatively high.
Currently, there are new technological development directions for diaphragm, such as online coating technology, which can further reduce the cost, further optimize the industry structure and generate better investment opportunities.
In addition, Cinda Australia Bank believes that the recent adjustment is the market short-term irrational emotions of a concentrated vent. It is expected that the possibility of a sharp decline in the a-share market this year is unlikely, and the probability is that it will continue to oscillate, and structural investment opportunities should be actively grasped. We are always optimistic about the future long-term development of China's economy and the huge investment opportunities it brings. Investment opportunities are often nurtured in the ups and downs of the market. We should actively embrace outstanding a-share listed companies to share the dividends of China's economic development.
This article is from China Fund News.
Related Q&A: What is a countercyclical sector? Counter-cyclical plate refers to a business or industry does not match the economic operating cycle, for example, when the economic environment is good, counter-cyclical plate on the stock performance is not necessarily good, usually counter-cyclical plate agriculture, medical, film and television, entertainment and so on. If a business or industry matches the economic operating cycle, then it is pro-cyclical, such as real estate. Counter-cyclical is during the boom phase when companies tend to invest more and at a higher cost, and are likely to experience losses during the subsequent recession. If you can grasp this economic cycle law and use it wisely, you can get good results. For example, in the boom phase, should avoid a substantial increase in fixed asset investment, equity investment, a substantial expansion of the scale of operations, etc.; in the recession, the price of fixed assets and equity have fallen sharply, at this time you can against the trend of increased investment in fixed assets, the purchase of equity, expansion of the scale of operations, etc.. This is the "counter-cyclical" strategy. In a market economy, any economic model is in fluctuation. This fluctuation largely shows the stage cycle of recovery, prosperity, recession and depression, that is, the economic cycle. The fluctuations and cycles of the economic cycle are unavoidable phenomena in the overall development of the economy. During the boom phase, businesses tend to invest more and at a higher cost, and are likely to experience losses during the subsequent recession. Good results can be achieved if the laws of the economic cycle are grasped and applied rationally. For example, in the boom phase, should avoid a substantial increase in fixed asset investment, equity investment, a substantial expansion of the scale of operations, etc.; in the recession, the price of fixed assets and equity have fallen sharply, at this time you can against the trend of increased investment in fixed assets, the purchase of equity, expansion of the scale of operations, etc.. This is the "counter-cyclical" strategy. For example, for the shipping company, the boom period, high freight rates, demand for more, shipping company benefits, the demand for cargo ships, cargo ship prices, if this time a large booking of cargo ships, wait until the ship to the hands of the ship is likely to have entered into recession, when the price of shipping prices fell, the demand for a decline in the shipping company's efficiency or even a loss, and the decline in the price of the ship makes the depreciation of fixed assets. If the shipping company buys cargo ships in the recession period, not only the cost is low, but also in the future recovery period and boom period to get a better return. Related Q&A: Which sector of A-share investment is more promising in 2021?The nature of the stock market, is up more than sure to fall back again, speculation is the future speculation is expected, if the stock price for a period of time up more than the future is overdrawn, in a secondary on the market who did not intend to take a lifetime of chips, go in and take chips is to want to make money, then earn more than a natural high throw, in addition to a number of short-term gaming geniuses or masters, the average person is still honest to listen to the analysis of the red brother to make money.
Red brother in 16 years of professional experience also told us that last year's bull stock is generally unlikely to become this year's bull stock, because the bull stock profit chips are too much, it will be high to end, and then go to the digging in the next time you can go far, can go far is to go high certainly should be the stock price in the low position.
Today's index upward impotence, but we disk see, cloud infrastructure, optical communications, satellite communications, cloud video and Internet of Things-related stocks led the way! We see that the valuation level of the communications sector is relatively low, low valuation is relatively safe, the fund position is at an all-time low! Then next they will reduce the position earned pot full of high cattle stocks, in go to add position these again low ticket. So friends, do not go after the plate stocks have gone cattle, come here to build a position on the low reliable very
Market white wine, PV miss miss, it does not matter, so the market did not completely miss, miss this piece to find that piece. Red brother at the end of the year has been prompted to buy low last year fully adjusted 5G. software stocks, the last 2 days performance can be, but most of them are still at a low level, so this year's bulls will be out of here, we will wait and see,